Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 13/9/2024 07:28

My advfn news feed isn't showing any quarterly announcements this year, is the app broken?

[gizmohican] 13/9/2024 07:06

Yep gold prices will certainly help our figs when next qtr production results come in.

[excellance] 12/9/2024 18:42

Cyber, the repeated complaint has been about the family holding, and some distrust of the family motives, tho so far the family have been immensely supportive.

Geopolitics may also have an impact, in Kazakhstan not far from the Russian border, but most resource plays are in dodgy jurisdictions.

I think the major factor holding us back is the lack of clear or recent CPR and no proof of increased gold production.

The next few months should see most of all of those fears put to bed.

[tim000] 12/9/2024 16:52

The AR2024 published estimates of NPVs for Seki and TS were respectively ca $400mn and $100mn. These estimates are long out of date, but they’re not out by multiples, even though the gold price is almost double that of the year one assumption in the NPV calcs.

[cyberbub] 12/9/2024 15:38

If the NPV is over $1bn why are we still stuck below £2 a share? Are investors put off by the low grades? The (perceived) dubious jurisdiction? The high family ownership? The low liquidity?

[farrugia] 12/9/2024 15:37

I would say they have big yet untapped resources Tim and its a recovery story. Another one that I'm in is Steppe Gold (Mongolia) - they recently bought a second gold mine. I also have Elemental Altus Royalties - that's a gold royalty company

[tim000] 12/9/2024 15:20

AAZ predominantly mine copper don’t they?

[farrugia] 12/9/2024 15:18

'Do we know any low cost gold producers that will benefit handsomely from today's rise?'

This one, Thor Explorations, Cerrado Gold, Anglo Asian Mining, Goldplat, SSRM and Fortuna Silver. I also have a big chunk of Fresnillo as a play on silver.

[tim000] 12/9/2024 15:16

Yes, that’s why I say there are no reliable official estimates - too many assumptions were out by a lot. The fundamentals are that revenues are higher (much higher prices at least partly offset by significantly lower grades), while fixed costs are also higher. Overall, NPV should probably be a bit higher, but only substantially higher if they get the grades up when mining deeper.

[excellance] 12/9/2024 15:04

You can also revise the cut off grade lower, increasing the resources and lom.

[tim000] 12/9/2024 15:02

You have to reset mined grades and unit costs as well though.

[spike501] 12/9/2024 14:45

If at $1280 the NPV10 was $400million it must be easily over $1bn at $2000 - at $1280 ‘profit per ounce’ must have been somewhere between $400 and $500. The additional $720 increase in gold price is all margin (bar tax) and so even increasing costs it brings substantially more margin and as you highlight NPV10 is boosted with higher upfront cash flows.

[excellance] 12/9/2024 14:43

Gold is flying on the back of US inflation numbers and rate cut expectations.

Do we know any low cost gold producers that will benefit handsomely from today's rise?

[tim000] 12/9/2024 14:37

I wouldn’t go that far Spike, but yes, the long LOM, expansion plans, low AISC and access to debt finance are all tremendously favourable given the high pog.

[excellance] 12/9/2024 14:28

...therefore our share price should 20 bag.

[spike501] 12/9/2024 14:21

2019 CPR on Seki used $1280 as long term gold price. So current gold price is more than double and as Tim says discounted NPV calcs benefit substantially from high prices - i.e. NPV will be far higher.

I’d guess even at $2000 Seki NPV10 is well in excess of $1bn even with update costs

[excellance] 12/9/2024 14:15

Higher gold prices have an exponential effect on profits for years to come.

I think the markets still aren't sure about where gold prices are heading, and despite all the evidence of fiat currency crisis they are trained or brain washed to hold onto their dollars euros and pounds.

Starmer's October budget and the US election is in the same week, so maybe we'll have more clarity on the health of our financial system by then or shortly after.

Even the pace of the Ukraine war is being dictated by the US electoral process, allegedly.

We can't influence the global picture, we just have to deliver results at Seki and TS and everything will fall into place.

[tim000] 12/9/2024 13:55

Much higher gold prices have dramatic effects on NPV calculations. They dramatically increase cashflow in the early years, before the discount factors kick in, and can transform the returns on investment in additional production, and make hitherto unprofitable low-grade ore profitable, thus extending the LOM. They reduce income gearing and thus improve access to cheap finance. And of course not just theoretical NPV calculations, but real world profits. The increase in gold prices seen recently are not being adequately reflected in the share prices of gold producers such as ALTN.

[tim000] 12/9/2024 13:43

Indeed, the gold price assumption was very modest, and as you say a much higher gold price offsets much of the lost value of missed grade targets - but probably not all.

[excellance] 12/9/2024 13:40

But what gold price did they use?

A higher gold price should mean lower grade ore, previously unprofitable, can be blended in.

[tim000] 12/9/2024 13:33

They can be mined, but either at slower throughput or at higher cost if the 3.6g/t grades can’t be reached. And the high discount rate methodology results in a substantial negative impact on NPV.