Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[outlawinvestor] 20/7/2020 09:32

Seki mining permit extended for 10 years.

[tightfist] 20/7/2020 08:53

Hi Cyberhub, Excallance,.From the $17m Loan RNS, dated 11th September 2019:."Altyn plc (the Company) is pleased to announce that its application for a loan of US$17m (6.5bln Tenge) from Kazakh Bank JSC "Bank Center Credit" (BCC) has been approved by the bank's credit committee. The loan is repayable in instalments over a term of seven years and bears interest at 6%.".IF it is a mortgage-style straight-line repayment, paid quarterly, (increasing capital repayment and decreasing interest) AND the interest is only on the outstanding capital balance - then the annual cost would IMO be close to $3.0m pa. However, these assumptions will not be wholly correct!........ And I expect there will be some additional arrangement fees..Anyway, a considerable sum to be borne in mind! tightfist

[j4yjaybee] 19/7/2020 18:59

The "inflection point" statement related to the share price.

[cyberbub] 19/7/2020 12:22

Pure interest will be about $80k per month. Depends how quickly the capital has been agreed to be repaid.

[excellance] 19/7/2020 12:04

actually, are the loan repayments not £280,000 every month? cant remember where i saw it...i'll have to dig into the rns's to get the answer...

[excellance] 19/7/2020 12:01

right now the focus is on delivering on targets.

we have taken on quite significant debt for phase one, and are likely to need to fund phase two also unless the gold price rises exponentially from here soon.

the question therefore is on profitability, and at what point our operations become profitable, not merely on an operational basis but also taking into account debt and bond liabilities.

how much per year is our debt and bonds issue costing us?

the company said we've hit an inflection point, so i assume that means a point of being self sufficient financially, and i think that is true, but we need to see Q2 numbers and then financials so the uber risk averse bean counters and investment banks can be satisfied that investing in ALTN is safe.

the bonds alone will be costing us a million dollars per year in interest payments, and our $17m loan at 6% will be costing us $350,000 to $400,000 dollars every month in repayment costs.

so, are we in profit yet?

if we are in profit and the trend is going in the right direction (which it surely must be if we in profit) then we really will see the rerating that we expect to maybe upto £200m mkt cap this year, tho that will take into account expectation of future growth so a bit of volatility should be expected, and not merely the ridiculously large spread.

[stevea171] 19/7/2020 11:37

A quote from the Jan 17th, 2020 Sprott Money Talk when gold was US$1,559.

Eric Sprott: “I have this metric that I use that every hundred thousand ounces of production should give you a market cap of about $400 million. Not Canadian, I'm talking US when I say $400 million per 100,000 ounces. And, of course, that's going to hold even more with the price of gold going up. I probably should be using a higher metric now.”

This is clearly an over-simplified approach as it doesn’t take production cost, reserves, resources, mine life etc into account. On all these measures ALTN would very likely be in the top quartile.

ALTN's market cap is £50 million or $62 million US and production no where near 100k oz just yet. Also gold is now up to $1800 cf $1559 at the time. But indicates a possible valuation of x7 in a few years time if the current production ramp up to 100k oz/year goes to plan and gold remains at $1800.

I expect the gold price to move much higher in the coming years so x10 would make some allowance for that.

[excellance] 19/7/2020 09:25

I tried bitcoin and other cryptos a year or three back, and didn't enjoy the experience.

Blockchain is great auditing technology but is over rated and can't be used as government money because it can't be printed out of thin air for government to spend into infinity like cash can.

[brasso3] 19/7/2020 08:35

I do not buy bitcoin with the intention of using it as a currency. I buy it as a store of value to protect me from the fiat currency circus. China flirted with banning bitcoin and it pushed the price up. The time to ban bitcoin was probably 5 - 10 years ago. Its become too big now and any government that attempts to stop its citizens from using BTC will alienate a lot of voters. It is convenient for central banks to have alternative asset classes to gold as it helps suppress the price of gold and allow the fiat sham to continue.

[jc2706] 19/7/2020 04:33

Governments potentially stop bitcoin by ensuring that it is not legal tender. It has already flirted with this in several major countries. I suspect that the only reason that it hasn't happened is that they do not currently see it as a threat. The fact that it is a billion USD plus asset class suggests that it is around for some time however but its role will likely be marginal. I do believe that some other form of currency standard will come in at some point however. Just not bitcoin.

[brasso3] 19/7/2020 01:39

JC

I used to think this way too.

You have to read 'The Bitcoin Standard' to really understand it. How do the 200+ governments around the world stop Bitcoin? They have never agreed on anything else in history! Countries love to control fiat currencies but they have already lost control. Bitcoin is the best performing asset over the last 10 years (year on year) and yet people still doubt it.

[jc2706] 18/7/2020 21:09

I am sure that Bitcoin is going to have some interesting ups and downs in the next few years but I am struggling to see how it is going to avoid going to zero ultimately. I can't see the world's governments allowing it to become a standard currency. If there is one thing countries love to do it is control their own currency.

[brasso3] 18/7/2020 12:41

I think most expect them to brand it as the digital dollar but it will still be backed by thin air. Its hard to see anywhere else you would want to be other than gold, silver and bitcoin. Also wise to have a fair bit of long term debt at fixed interest rates and let them inflate it away for you.

[excellance] 18/7/2020 12:38

well then they will replace the current currency with an altered hybrid, probably still called the dollar, but with different terms and worth a lot less. "New dollars" maybe.

[brasso3] 18/7/2020 12:11

Excellence

History tells us that all fiat currencies go to zero at some point.

Germany has had 6 currencies in the last 150 years:-

Eurp 1992 - present
Deutsche Mark 1948 - 1992
Reichsmark 1924 - 1948
German Rentenmark 1923 - 1924
German Papiermark 1914 - 1924
German gold mark 1873 - 1914

The USD carries the same name but the reality is that it has evolved several times through the 1900s from gold backed to partially gold back to debt back fiat.

[excellance] 18/7/2020 11:19

I don't doubt that a financial and economic crisis is likely, but they'll just print more money, and eventually we will get the desired inflation to inflate away debts.

The banking sector is struggling with high loan default rates, I understand 15% on average which is unacceptable and renders all banks insolvent.

The coronavirus crisis gave the government the option to give everyone a three month payment holiday and help the banks for a while, but how many people will lose their jobs in coming months?

One covid result is that millions of low productivity jobs in retail and hospitality will be lost, and thousands of unproductive old or sick people have died and many more will, and this will improve productivity rates.

The next stage will be to import millions of young highly productive men from wherever we can. Hong Kong has been given the invitation, but the BBC have been promoting ths concept of importing millions of Africans to grow our economy.

The dollar pound euro won't go to zero, but all paper money will be devalued significantly in my opinion.

[cyberbub] 18/7/2020 10:23

The problem with all these predictions in the last 10 years is that none of them have come true!

[excellance] 17/7/2020 14:15

It looks like it may bounce today...

[zooman] 17/7/2020 13:49

MB, it would be nice this here is the epitome of the saying of Warren Buffett. .Take money from the impatient to the patient.Zoo

[mold breaker] 17/7/2020 13:44

The MMs are having a field day with this share but I believe it will move to 3p and beyond shortly.

[excellance] 17/7/2020 11:12

Yet at times they allow trades of 2m which suggests no problem with liquidity, but then with a spread so great the mm would struggle to lose on any deal.

[78steve] 17/7/2020 11:06

Mm's making hefty sums with 20% spread and then swinging the price by another 20% so they're potentially making 40% from weak holders

[mackie] 17/7/2020 10:49

Can sell 1m @ 1.877. someone still wants them.

[excellance] 17/7/2020 10:39

My screen says 1.8 when I do a dummy, and only of limited size.

Awash with stock it seems, so we could possibly go lower for a while.

Ho hum.. I'm still uber confident on this company.