Altyngold Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 28/8/2019 08:58

Good analysis. However, I think you're being a little conservative (perhaps no bad thing). The company incurred substantial one-off operational costs last year, while the Tenge continued to depreciate in H1. Removing the one-off costs suggests unit cash costs of production should have been under $1000 per oz even in H1. But you're right obviously that H2 is going to be very much better than H1, for the reasons you give. My own analysis suggests the p/e ratio will have fallen to under 1 for H2, even at current gold prices. At $1800 this company is worth many multiples of its current value.

[mikro1] 27/8/2019 18:44

I bought more today at 0.52p. I am buying as the rising gold price disproportionally benefits Altyn as its AISC is high. For example if gold reaches 1800 this company will be on a PE of around 1. Add in the fact that the resource is huge, and it is much more likely to get financing in a high gold price environment and that is why I am in in a big way. However I have low expectations for H1 as during H1 the gold price was approx 1300 and the new trucks were not yet in action. In my opinion only H2 and onwards will show the benefits.

[jc2706] 27/8/2019 18:18

Ah, yes! Just read the last line of your post! Apologies.

[bo doodak] 27/8/2019 18:03

JC2706,

I think we are actually in agreement?
My points were more of a general overview of investor behaviour as starting position, and the opportunity therein that in itself gives, given the assumption of increased investment, based on the increased G price, transforming the business case.

[jc2706] 27/8/2019 16:56

Bo Doodak,

I would agree with you but one of the worst stocks a few years ago was AAZ. 30x later it is still bring bought. Go back a few years further and Norseman Gold was the worst. 30x later it was still being bought.

ALTN's problem is lack of investment and self promotion. A higher gold price will facilitate the first. Start producing cash and the promotion will come.

[jc2706] 27/8/2019 16:54

Excellance,

I was wondering if that was what you meant. That is not the way it works. See tim000's post!

[tim000] 27/8/2019 15:27

That's not right, excellance. ALTN would hedge at the existing futures market prices, but would pay fees to the lender for arranging the hedge.

[bo doodak] 27/8/2019 15:18

This company has serially disappointed investors for so long now, including myself, its not at all surprising, that even if good news is likely to be imminent, the share price will be slow to respond.

Altyn are right on the bottom rung of minor producers, production wise, and reputation wise, and in the usual cycle of interest moving along from first majors, then moving to minor producers.

Therein lies the opportunity, hopefully.

[excellance] 27/8/2019 14:22

If a bank wanted to loan payments to be managed by guaranteeing a "hedged" price for produce for the next year or more they would guarantee a price lower than spot because they are not a charity, they want ths best deal for them from every angle.

[jc2706] 27/8/2019 11:01

Too early to say that this is breaking out? There certainly seems to be some interest ahead of the half year report.

[jc2706] 27/8/2019 08:15

Excellence,

What do you mean by:

"they would want the hedge to be 15% lower than actual spot"?

[tim000] 26/8/2019 07:27

Gold futures prices are $1550-1650 per oz, extending to 2024.

[excellance] 25/8/2019 22:09

they would want the hedge to be 15% lower than actual spot...that's the hedge

[tim000] 24/8/2019 12:56

If they hit all their targets, production would increase by around 70% in 2019, mostly in H2. That reflects plans to mine higher grade ore bodies, as well as the increase in throughput to 40k tonnes pm in H2.

[bo doodak] 24/8/2019 12:19

Its also intriguing that they have continued exploration and spending not insubstantial sums on Karasuyskoye,including test production, so its not impossible we get an unexpected positive announcement on that front out of the blue.

[wrighty46] 24/8/2019 12:05

This share imo is undervalued and should be trading comfortably north of 1p just on reserves. This year should be reasonably profitable and all the companies projections have been based on a steady pog of $1250. Next few weeks should be interesting here. Shares are getting harder to buy and the bid is slowly climbing and showing good resilience to any sells. I'm sure there is one or two in the background mopping up loose shares. Weve been down here a while now and a good leg up is looking imminent. Production could actually increase 30% or more this year and perfect timing with pog on the up as production is increasing. I'm hoping for fireworks over the next few weeks but am prepared to wait until early next year as the picture of increasing grades and processing will definitely become apparent then. What will the share price be by then. Not 0.5p to buy I would imagine. NAI and GLA.

[tim000] 24/8/2019 09:34

In my opinion, ALTN is the most undervalued gold stock on the market. It has enormous gold reserves at its two sites, and at current gold prices is now starting to generate the cash needed to develop production and reach its longer-term target of producing 100k ozs pa, conservatively within the next 5 years. At that point the share price should be at least 10x its current level.

[brasso3] 24/8/2019 09:26

Tried to buy on Friday but was only able to pick up £2k. There was nothing available.

I expect this will break upwards soon purely on the chart and the gold price.

[tim000] 23/8/2019 22:57

It’s common for banks to require miners to hedge some of their production when taking out a loan - probably because the lender gets additional fees from the transaction. While generally hedges are risky and inappropriate, at least in this instance ALTN would be hedging at a highly profitable price, even were its gold grades below average. Roll on next week.

[tim000] 23/8/2019 15:30

There's been more than one steady buyer in the market....

[excellance] 23/8/2019 15:26

There has been a steadily rising underlying price for weeks now, and a buyer willing to take large quantities of stock for a low sp, but he's happy to take stock, like a shark circling just beneath the swimmers feet.

I have no doubt the share price will continue to rise and form a lovely chart pattern

📈

[chrisdgb] 23/8/2019 14:03

More trade war issues only strengthen the case for gold.............

[tim000] 23/8/2019 10:26

Spread tightening, steadily higher bid price. No sign of large sellers. Nicely primed for good news next week. If the company can wrap up a loan agreement, releasing that news on the same day as the interims would make sense.

[chrisdgb] 23/8/2019 10:24

Buys coming today....

[excellance] 22/8/2019 18:08

only 2 tiny trades today
8(