Alterian Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 01/2/2010 11:15

As I see it the problem with that share sale is that they didn't have a New Labour spokesman available for an RNS.

Otherwise they could have announced that the 'Calculus of Risk' had changed.
Then we could all say 'oh that's OK then' ;-)

[rivaldo] 31/1/2010 07:38

:o)) Yep, he is - but he's actually extremely successful in my experience and has quite a following now.

The ALN bounce appears to have started now.

Interesting new survey (commissioned by ALN):



"Social Media to become focus for marketers in 2010
Alterian annual survey finds that two thirds of marketing professionals are to invest in social media over the next 12 months

London – 21 January 2010 – Today Alterian (LSE: ALN) released the results of their seventh annual survey. The sample covered 1068 marketing professionals worldwide and found that 66 percent of respondents will be investing in Social Media Marketing (SMM) in the next 12 months. Of those investing in SMM 40 percent said they would be shifting more than a fifth of their traditional direct marketing budget towards funding their SMM activities. This supports other statistics from the survey which found that the majority of respondents (67 percent) feel social media is either 'increasingly important' or 'critical to success'.

Commenting on the survey results Alterian CEO, David Eldridge, said, "2010 marks the start of the digital decade for marketing. Untargeted and irrelevant marketing techniques are now redundant and the results of this survey show many in the industry recognise this. The one thing to remember, however, is that investment in Social Media Marketing is futile without adequate measurement."

The survey found more than a third (36 percent) of respondents are investing in social media monitoring and analysis tools. This is a significant percentage considering the maturity of the channel and reflects the growing understanding that a social media marketing strategy needs to be based on listening to customers and prospects and its ROI needs to be measured. Eldridge continues, "Without the adequate investment in listening and measurement tools it renders any anticipated investment in social media ineffectual. The key to an effective social media strategy is listening."

The survey went further to explore the extent to which organisations integrate marketing technologies across their organisation. Almost half of respondents (42 percent) said they don't incorporate clickstream and web analytics data into their customer and email database. "This is a worrying statistic as it shows many organisations are losing any advantage that this valuable actionable insight could give them" adds Eldridge.

The research also explored the importance of customer engagement and found that over half of respondents (51 percent) are placing a 'fair' or 'significant' amount of effort on moving from a campaign-centric direct marketing model towards multichannel customer engagement – in fact only 7 percent are making no effort at all. Eldridge concludes, "Engaging with customers is becoming paramount and the yardstick by which we measure those brands that survive and those that don't. Marketers now need to appeal to the individual and engage with customers on a one-to-one basis. The easiest way to achieve this is by investing in Social Media Marketing and Social Media Monitoring, and by embracing the web."

The 7th annual Alterian Survey will be launched at a webinar at 1600 (GMT) on 21 January 2010. To secure a space or to watch a replay of the webinar, visit

To obtain a copy of the full report of the Alterian Annual Survey results visit:

[applesanpears] 29/1/2010 14:36

Is that the guy Rivaldo, who used to be the frequent-gloater!sorry i mean trader.

[rivaldo] 29/1/2010 10:39

I see that Robbie Naked Trader goes along with Merrill Lynch/BlackRock in seeing this as a buying opportunity:



"Bought back some Alterian (ALN) - sold half for a nice profit the other day and up a good deal on my original buy. After the recent warning they're down quite a lot but looks like a bottom is forming so I decided to have a bash and see if I could get them at a low price via the order book, bypassing the market makers and indeed I did.

I got 425 ALN at 140.25 just before the close and the rest up to 2,000 at 139.5 in the closing auction. Target 170 stop 130. That averages me out at about 139.75-140ish."

[bluebelle] 29/1/2010 09:45

Friendzarin - 29 Jan'10 - 08:55 - 1278 of 1278
I don't think either Bluebelle or myself are couching our remarks in self pity.
The issue is simply one of good governance and directorial responsibility .


Friendzarin
I completely agree with your post. A Board can't simply run a plc as if it were a small family business, although those who apply the rules that seek to prevent this, often appear pretty toothless !

[friendzarin] 29/1/2010 08:55

n1blet

I appreciate the view you hold about being responsible for your own trading/investment style/decision taking.

I don't think either Bluebelle or myself are couching our remarks in self pity.

The issue is simply one of good governance and directorial responsibility .

When you say

'...quite obviously they do support & run this as their own business.'

this may be not quite what you meant but this a plc.It is not their business it is the shareholders.

The directors are in a priviledged position with regard to all other shareholders in terms of their up to date visibility of the current performance of a business.That is clearly why they have restrictions placed on the timing of their share sales.

I don't know the detail of this but the liklihood is they will have had some period of time in an open period before they sold immediately prior to entering a closed period.The shares dropped more than 30% during that closed period.Immediately on entering the next open period the FD of all people begins buying shares at 20% less than he sold.This all in a matter of weeks.

I know they are all major shareholders thanks to options and they are entitled more than anyone to enjoy the benefits from their efforts that have resulted in shareprice appreciation and perhaps we are simply talking about ethics here rather than whether there was a strict adherence to the rules.

We will never really know what they knew about a potential profit warning being in the offing when they sold.The point being made ooh is that in a well run plc with proper controls in place they should have done.Imv as directors their conduct should be such as to remove all suspicion that might generate this perception.IMV and probably some others they have not done so.

[yump] 28/1/2010 19:51

OK.
I'm bored now and I guess you are as well.

[bluebelle] 28/1/2010 19:41

yump - 28 Jan'10 - 16:50 - 1272 of 1274

"It is so clear cut after all."

Yes. It is.


"You're making an assumption about their conduct"

No. I'm not.

[friendzarin] 28/1/2010 17:36

Yump

I appreciate the sentiment behind your previous post and apologies for the cheerleader crack.I remain as a rather bruised holder for now and agree with your last paragraph.I hope that the optimism in Rivaldos last post is well placed.ATB FZ

[yump] 28/1/2010 16:50

As I have not been a Director of a PLC, you are correct that I could not possibly understand the obligations of directors from reading the publicly issued guidance on the subject. It is so clear cut after all.

Yeah, they are so clear cut that the only guidance is a vague statement that is dependent on subjective judgement as to what is and what isn't something that will materially effect results, which also then depends on 'guidance' from the FD and the lawyers.

You're making an assumption about their conduct, I'm not (yet).

[bluebelle] 28/1/2010 14:39

yump - 28 Jan'10 - 09:18 - 1268 of 1270

yump

Others, especially those with first hand experience of being a Director of a plc, understand perfectly well the points I'm making. You, clearly, can't so there's no point in my repeating it save to say that such situations are pretty clear cut to anyone who understands the process of corporate governance.

This, legally, includes all Directors and, indeed, anyone who could be considered a shadow Director, together with, in many cases, senior officers in the company regardless of whether or not they are Board Directors.

If there was room for doubt before the Cadbury report, there is none after it.

[rivaldo] 28/1/2010 10:37

BlackRock/Merrill Lynch have increased their holding by over 318,000 shares since the trading RNS to almost 5.4m shares, i.e 9.21%.

They evidently aren't particularly bothered.

Given that the new EPS forecasts from 12.2p-12.9p should represent the bottom, it'll be interesting to see what happens if ALN are able to report a turnaround in signing off some of those contracts in the last quarter.

Probably back to 190p-200p in fairly short order I'd have thought.

[friendzarin] 28/1/2010 10:01

Yump

This discussion is not serving any purpose to my mind I just agree to disagree.

I've read your earlier posts and you have made some good technical input.

BTW I'm not suffering from paranoia its just that when I see a comment like

'So you're sitting on the board and the sales director says - we're not that sure about the signing of a couple of these big contracts - but that's all we know at the moment. What's your next step ?'

it is so far away from accepted corporate process and behaviour at plc board level that I'm afraid it opens you up to the type of response you have been given regarding what constitutes acceptable practise for directors or other senior managers who have to seek approval from the company secretary before share sales /acquisitions.

[yump] 28/1/2010 09:18

Bluebelle
So perhaps you could explain for other people's benefit how if you are sitting there looking at your business and you've read the directors responsibilities, how you make the judgement about what is material and what isn't; how large the contracts have to be; how doubtful the results need to look...

Ridiculous - it can't tell you EXACTLY what to do because its a matter of judgement.

You've made assumptions about their judgement, so I'm asking once again how you would make the judgement.

As you are clearly so much more experienced than me, that should be easy to describe.

[yump] 28/1/2010 09:12

By the way...
You'll actually find that when the chairman posted some hypey statement a while ago, I posted that it slightly bothered me as he seemed to be a bit caught up in his own whatever.

So I suggest you add this to your bank of possibilities:

If you were the suspicious type, then Alterian have over the last year or so reinvented themselves as many companies have done. Heavily by acquisition and also it happens to be in a new 'trendy' area.

Unfortunately the market has in the past been littered with companies who reinvent themselves when they get into trouble, invariably latching on the the 'next big thing'. Only to fall apart when they don't deliver or the market isn't really there.

Add that to the chairman's hype, plus the share sales and you've got a proper conspiracy.

However its such a large growth market, now is a good time to get it going because any economic recovery is going to lead to rapidly increasing business. Plus we know that the US is actually experiencing some of that, despite the recession.

Plus its not a loss making share issuer bleeding investors dry.

But what would I know.

[bluebelle] 28/1/2010 09:12

yump

You are clearly so far out of your depth in this discussion that adding to what I have already said, quite clearly, would be a waste of my time and would, it appears, go way over your head. Anyone with hands on experience of these situations knows EXACTLY what to do, as I have already described.

[yump] 28/1/2010 09:06

Friendzarin
Letting paranoia cloud your judgement isn't going to help your investments.
I haven't 'appeared' from anywhere.

So yes, I disagree about the vigour of the finger pointing.
And lo and behold - you reckon I must have some connection to the company.

I know its common for various labels to be stuck on BB'ers who have strongly different views, but take some advice and discount that from your assessment or it will play havoc with your financial returns.

Bluebelle
Nice textbook answer on the role of a director, but it doesn't actually describe how you make the judgement. And you seem very clear that they have not done the right thing, so perhaps you could describe how YOU would decide it.

[bluebelle] 27/1/2010 16:27

I think we could have a violent agreement about this Friendzarin !

If the FD wasn't aware of the situation it strikes me that the Board is completely dysfunctional, getting together only to sort out their share sales, oh, and all of them completely unaware of the deterioration in the Company's position of course !!!

[friendzarin] 27/1/2010 16:23

Blubelle

Its pretty pointless carrying on this discussion I feel.I agree with all your points and like you have had direct experience in these issues.Yump has appeared as a company cheerleader to support the directors position in such a subjective manner I wonder as to his interests in it all.

As for the FD buying back 10k shares at 4k more than he sold them for 8 weeks ago having already pocketed £1/4mil thats just rubbing salt in the wound is it not? No role in the organisation will be closer to y/e forecast than his so what are we to make of it all ?

[bluebelle] 27/1/2010 14:32

yump - 27 Jan'10 - 14:13 - 1261 of 1261

... you guys seem determined to see either dodgyness or incompetence.


Far from it but when the facts clearly point you in a particular direction, direct you to a particular conclusion and, you certainly, can present no plausible, coherent arguments against them, then I think the conclusions some of us have drawn could well be nearer the mark than yours : if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.......


Incidentally, in a publicly quoted company the answer to your question

What would YOU do as a director ?

is quite simple. First notify and take advice from the Company Secretary and/or Finance Director. Second, if you do go ahead with the sale, raise it, and have it minuted, together with that advice, at the next Board meeting.

I realise that this is clearly way outside of your own experience, but when you accept a Directorship of a plc, you also have to accept the restrictions that go with it, and they are made very clear to you. These - quite often - include refraining from dealing in the Company's shares even when you have good reason to think they are going to rise or fall. That is not just a moral position - it's a legal one !

[yump] 27/1/2010 14:13

Of course they don't have a right to sell if they have FACTS ie. cancelled contracts that will affect the results and that should be RNS'd.

But being aware that some contracts might not come to fruition before the year end - well you tell me - what does that mean you should do ?

So you're in touch and you know there are some doubts.

What would YOU do as a director ?
At what probability of contract delay would you decide not to sell ?
At what point would you issue an RNS ?

So you're sitting on the board and the sales director says - we're not that sure about the signing of a couple of these big contracts - but that's all we know at the moment. What's your next step ?

This could all be a how-long-is-a-piece-of-string question, but you guys seem determined to see either dodgyness or incompetence.

In the current climate, however close you are to the sales force, there's no guarantees imo. Believe me, you can be REAL close and not know what's going on because there are lots of people trying to remain confident.

[bluebelle] 27/1/2010 11:20

kab7 - 27 Jan'10 - 10:58 - 1257 of 1258
If you were a director, I think you may find yourself on dodgy territory taking that stance.

kab

Quite right which is why I said to yump that he clearly has never been a Director of a plc. When you are, you are regularly reminded by the Company Secretary - and often the Company Broker - of the rules regarding dealing in your own company's shares and following the 'yump route' would involve leaving yourself open to prosecution.

[ukinvestor220] 27/1/2010 11:18

looks like a further sell off is likely - better cash in