Alpha Real Share Discussion Threads

[nw1234] 04/3/2019 09:22

RNS last July, rather than November

[skyship] 04/3/2019 09:19

Bought in for a few Friday and today, problem is "a few"! Didn't prove possible to buy a reasonable holding. Still, will be patient and try for more if the price stays put. PA - thnx for your work and posts. Pls don't disappear for another 6weeks... One question. So far only looked at the RNSs, but find no mention of a Director investing £1m last November. Could you post a link pls.

[davebowler] 04/3/2019 09:00

Yes, I'm amazed that this hasn't risen to close to its asset value. I emailed the management about having more regular updates but no response!

[pavey ark] 04/3/2019 08:23

At the time of the 138p share buy back (October 2018)the most recent NAV figure came from the August 2018 trading update: 174.8p The Leeds site was in at £9.2m and the data centre in at £21m Since the share buy back these sites have been sold for £15m and £38m I make this a GROSS increase in NAV of 34p. Another major event that was largely ignored here was a director buying £1m of shares in November 2018

[pavey ark] 04/3/2019 07:58

Cerrito, you are correct in saying that the share buyback costs have to come off cash and there may be some transaction costs in the recent disposals, there could also be some extra cash put into loans but none of this has any real impact on my central theme of exceptional value being largely ignored by investors. The company does generate cash to cover dividends and running costs and as the two recent disposals were not at the cash generation phase this cash generation should improve if and when the money is put to work. Looking at the previous posts I see that you participated in the October share buy back and seemed to express regret that you didn't tender more. Selling at 138p I totally understand that buying back shares at a higher price is very difficult. I agree that the company gives frequent and very detailed information to shareholders.

[cerrito] 03/3/2019 20:27

You are right PA that this is and always has been a quiet BB...and probably always will be. A circular issue of a concentrated and loyal shareholding base which means little trading and hence wide bid/offer spreads which makes it less attractive to retail investors. Also means a low profile IR policy, no attendance at seminars etcetera and 9am AGM's in Guernsey. All that said, they do give timely and comprehensive financial information. You are also right about the cash position; it will be a bit less than £66m given tender offer, dividend and fact that my reading is that the figures for Frankfurt and Leeds sales are gross before transaction costs. You are probably right that we are nearing the end game; if you are cynical you would say with so much cash, difficult for the Fund Manager to get the performance fees. I cannot see myself buying or selling in the immediate future and am watching and waiting.

[pavey ark] 03/3/2019 10:41

Cheers bb, Whatever way you slice or dice it we have an unstable situation here. When a company like ARTL is at a very large discount AND has a very, very large cash pile something has to give as the capitalist system simply doesn't allow a situation like this to exist for long. What we have here is FREE MONEY. A major shareholder could buy this at 195p/share and make a very tidy profit not to mention realising a massive increase in the value of their existing shareholding. To buy 65% of the shares would cost c.£86m but ARTL has (or will have) close to £65m in cash and that's before any settlement in India. Come to think of it you wouldn't even need to be a major shareholder. Offer 195p (cost £130m) get the cash immediately (£65m) run down the loan book sell off the Birmingham site and your investment is now so low that you can just wait for the remaining assets to be sold at a price you like and at a very healthy percentage profit.

[belgraviaboy] 01/3/2019 16:26

Pavey - thanks for your input on Alpha. I hold and agree that the valuation looks very attractive. For some reason, as evidenced by a lack of activity on this discussion, little private investor interest here at the moment.

[pavey ark] 01/3/2019 16:15

Doesn't six weeks fly. I now make cash to be 95p/ share. If you buy at 145p your 50p buys 115p of very, very sound and possibly undervalued assets. Just saying!!!

[pavey ark] 27/2/2019 13:07

Six weeks ago I posted some fairly detailed facts/info on ARTL and absolutely no response. Am I the only person following this company? Anyway we should get an update soon and the NAV and discount should make rather silly reading. I expect the NAV to be close to or over 200p and this does not take into account the other "hidden" increases in NAV. 1. Indian investment has to be worth more than £3.9m 2. The buy to let valuation looks very low, especially Leeds. 3. The Spanish shopping centre has the recently acquired additional land and planning permission would increase the value a fair bit. Just saying !! I'll go away for another six weeks now. PS: if someone knows something I've missed please let me know. I don't mind a healthy portion of humble pie especially if it saves me some money !! PPS: I can see this being taken private as the figures would make a lot of sense especially if the people taking it private already hold a fair number of shares.

[pavey ark] 15/1/2019 12:19

Today was my last and most expensive purchase here. The question is , have I got my figures right !!? I make the NAV to be 205p with the cash worth about 70p a share. Below is a little bit of research and if you can get into it from my link is certainly worth a careful read. hxxps://www.ashurst.com/en/news-and-insights/insights/unlocking-the-potential-of-build-to-rent-housing---the-key-to-solving-the-uk-housing-crisis/ The "golden Brick" reference is worth taking careful note of and also the fact that Robert McAlpine is the preferred contractor/partner with ARTL and even more importantly they are the go to guys for Standard Life and their "build to Let" programme. I did not accept that £12m was a true carrying value for Monk Bridge so we shall see and perhaps quite soon. If the Leeds and Birmingham sites are sold on for a modest £20m total then NAV should rise to 210p/share with cash of 100p in that value !! NB: I would like to see these figures checked out.

[pavey ark] 21/12/2018 18:17

db, yes but only a 25k order and that was after your post. The rather derisory share price increase is largely negated by a massive spread. We have had a 27p increase in asset values, a massive £40m cash realisation and nothing really has happened to the share price The big clue here was when a senior director bought a million pounds worth of shares. This substantial share purchase was simply ignored here and now we are waiting for Simon Thompson to state the bleedin' obvious.

[davebowler] 21/12/2018 12:30

Looks as though buying has just pushed the price up.Pavey??

[pavey ark] 20/12/2018 14:20

db, had to go with a telephone order with another broker after buying some online with them earlier. The MMs were playing their usual game of not having any stock but not willing to raise the bid price to get more. Three MMs deal here and the spread was/is ridiculous. They were willing to buy 50k shares and pay 138p .....wasn't that nice of them ? Online/low cost brokers do most things by their computer system and if a share is not on it they are lost.....the lesson here is ..."you get what you pay for" Having said that I dealt with Idealing for many years and still have accounts and plenty of shares with them, I have little doubt that the guys at idealing would have got round this for me. Come April I intend to put my ISA allocation with idealing.

[horndean eagle] 20/12/2018 12:52

I think its more of a Kiid issue. HL are a waste of space. If they haven't got it set up then they won't offer the stock.

[davebowler] 20/12/2018 12:38

Pavey. I'm surprised your broker couldn't take a telephone order instead of putting you off due to their system deficiency.

[pavey ark] 20/12/2018 12:14

Easily the most frustrating trading day ever. A large lump of cash with a new broker but ARTL wasn't on their system .....it will be tomorrow .....oh good !!! Bought more with spare cash then sold another share to raise cash but the price was climbing. I should be grateful I had a reasonable holding to start with. ARTL is now 50% cash and at a discount of 30% to net asset value.( over 200p) I have said this before.. these guys know what they are doing. The carrying value at Monk Road is too low and the cash should come from India...at last. Edit: not only does this free up the £22m they had invested in the data centre but this deal adds c. 27p to the NAV.

[horndean eagle] 20/12/2018 11:38

The other big positive is they are now stuffed with cash and ready to put it to work. If market wobbles continue then should hopefully get some pretty juicy returns in due course. ST no doubt will flag up the huge bump in nav later. No one else really seems to have noticed.

[davebowler] 20/12/2018 11:32

Yes that's great news and a credit to the team.They are well paid but produce the results!

[horndean eagle] 20/12/2018 10:34

Disposal of Frankfurt at a huge premium to book value. NAV near 200p now. Shares should move to new highs soon.

[cerrito] 19/11/2018 23:13

Ran through the interims. NAV continues its stately increase up from 172.9p to 178.4p in the six months to end of September plus of course the dividends- presumably two of 0.6p. That said there is a change in the portfolio with the Freehold Fund holding more than halving in the six months to £13.96m, the introduction of Hamburg, continued investment in Frankfurt and Leeds as well as mezzanine loans. Their portfolio is pretty well insulated against a messy Brexit, though I guess AURE would find the going hard in such an eventuality. I reduced my holding by 28 pc in the tender offer.

[pavey ark] 16/11/2018 07:40

Results as expected with the exception of the Monk Road carrying value. I think that it is worth noting that a valuation of 9% of a GDV is erring rather heavily on the cautious side but it will all be sorted out in due course. My target here is 15% compound share price growth for the next three years or £2. Given the current projects in hand things may even go better that that but 15% would certainly keep me happy.

[pavey ark] 15/11/2018 10:46

Completed a second top up purchase this morning and I'm rather surprised to be on my own. Made my initial purchase a few months ago and with the two additional purchases now have a reasonable holding at c.132p The purchase of £1m of shares by a director seems to have been ignored. The Hamburg deal though not highly significant shows how nimble these people are. The legal dispute in India looks like it is coming to a conclusion. The most significant factor in my additional purchase has to be the build to rent projects, especially the Leeds Monk Road scheme. These projects have been carried at a value of c15% of their gross development value but the company has said that the Leeds project now has a GDV of £153m up from £55m due to new planning approval. If the 15% valuation is applied the carrying value goes from £9m to £23m or 21p a share. The company have even stated that this revaluation will have a material effect on the valuation and this will be announced on the 16th of Nov. I'm not in here for the quick gain as I rate the management team but it does look like things are certainly on the move.