Alpha Fx Share Discussion Threads

[onjohn] 08/10/2018 11:30

A P/E/R of 30 on my own forecast of 40p earnings next year after the money raise, give me a price target of £12

[nw99] 08/10/2018 11:03

Sorry cannot divulge

[pireric] 08/10/2018 07:29

Presume that is what SCSW wrote nw99?

[nw99] 08/10/2018 07:20

Set to go much higher

[interceptor2] 04/10/2018 07:03

That's the way I read it rampmeister, reading the recent trading update it is clear that growth accelerated strongly in September which points to strong growth potential that they need to take full advantage of.

[rampmeister] 03/10/2018 23:20

They appear to have seen a big opportunity to fast track growth and/or increase/market share for which they need cash. Imo this RNS is very positive. Interesting times ahead for AFX.

RM

[pireric] 03/10/2018 22:55

As I continue to think that forecasts here will be beaten, especially next year, my new TP I calc roughly to be 740p even post placing. That's about 25x my 2019 eps forecast which is significantly above Liberum. That is 21x excluding cash on balance sheet

[pireric] 03/10/2018 21:06

Tiny discount. 2.5% versus the bid price at the time. Actually shows confidence that institutions wanted in, so why would I sell even if some dilution? Proceeds should help accelerate growth so think the true dilution will turn out to be far smaller.

If the placing completion RNS is to be believed, then should get some nice holding RNSs in following days from very high quality IIs

[ali47fish] 03/10/2018 20:58

how come the share price remained stable- normally with a placing the share price comes down?

[pireric] 03/10/2018 20:08

Zero surprise to me the support this got. Quality business that, IMO, is not expensive. You also don't go on an ABB like this at a tiny discount without having strong indications beforehand that there is major interest

[cfro] 03/10/2018 17:28

Somehow this news completely by-passed me today....at first sight seems a good deal at tiny discount and 10% dillution..

Placing all complete now with full take-up.

[battyliveson] 03/10/2018 17:09

Interested to note that a Paul Scott on stocko said his broker mentioned that there was a poor market for IPO’s and fund raising and several have been abandoned.

If this is true, then the fact this got filled at minor discount is a good sign it has strong institutional support.

B

[john09] 03/10/2018 11:05

Great little company this. But fairly and highly rated.

[pireric] 03/10/2018 10:58

Alpha FX #AFX to raise up to £20m in placing at 620p. Just a 2.5% discount to prevailing bid price. Should improve liquidity and help further growth at expense of <10% dilution Vs PE multiple to me that still looks good . Stock is scarce. I expect full institutional take up

[matt123d] 25/9/2018 21:07

Would look for a target of 750p based on technicals

[martywidget] 25/9/2018 12:27

LIBERUM: Alpha FX* - Record September translates into 10% upgrade

A record September trading contributes to a 10% upgrade to our FY18e profit forecast and an increase in our Target Price to 675p...

[pireric] 25/9/2018 10:21

:0)

I would avoid selling purely based on valuation. See where momentum takes this one. It could, IMO, trade in excess of 30x P/E given the growth on offer, which on revised numbers would point more towards 700p. I'm a fan of letting the market dictate the valuation multiple and holding as long as the operational momentum is there.

It's a really defensive stock too which helps! If they start to see the operational leverage kick in... All bets are off

[gonedown] 25/9/2018 08:56

Yes, high flyer. All the best, Gone.

[toffeeman] 25/9/2018 08:32

Got that wrong!

[mysteronz] 25/9/2018 07:32

Not surprised given the H1 results, massive runway to go. Small % of the domestic market and growing international/institution strand

[nw99] 25/9/2018 07:05

Given the strong sales performance, the Board anticipates that the results for the full year ending 31 December 2018 will be ahead of current market expectations

[pireric] 07/9/2018 20:19

Finally getting the recognition the last set of results deserve. Don't want to tempt fate here, but 25x forward earnings for the growth and runway they're delivering here would not be mental... Would be nearer to 625p

[pireric] 06/9/2018 19:12

And what metrics are you using to determine it to be overvalued? Last time you said this, you used metrics that were completely wrong!

[toffeeman] 06/9/2018 12:35

The short thesis is that it is overvalued.

see Asos, GWP IQE BOO - all great growth stories and highly shortable at the right point - just need to find the right point :)

[pireric] 05/9/2018 20:06

Again, Toffee, no idea what the short thesis would ever be on this.

The only thing I would be able to come up with is the premium valuation, but it deserves it, and put it at a discount to the multiples of payments companies which are a pretty useful analogy (though FX is worse quality than payments acquiring and more in line with the quality of payments processing). But even on the processing side this is at a discount. Around 22x forward earnings, 8% of market cap in cash so 20x ish ex cash

Shorting something purely on valuation when they are knocking growth out of the park is extremely risky from past precedents!