Alpha Fx Share Discussion Threads

[pratt2] 12/6/2018 16:01

Whats happening here then

[gonedown] 09/6/2018 08:30

That should read: "All the building blocks are in place for a positive surprise on the upside." And so on. All the best. Gone.

[gonedown] 09/6/2018 08:24

No new post on this share in the June issue. It is their growth portfolio. In their April issue they wrote: "All the building blocks are in place for a positive on the upside at the H1. I remain a butter."Price at this posting was 505. All the best with your investment, Gone.

[gonedown] 08/6/2018 17:32

s.c.s.w. Is out to-morrow I will let you know if they update afx. Gone.

[pratt2] 08/6/2018 14:01

Has a new article about this come up on scsw anyone?

[onjohn] 06/6/2018 18:47

teddy boy12 Jul '17 - 18:13 - 24 of 338
0 1 0
SCSW described the potential growth as "turbo charged" in last months issue and "electrifying" in this months issue.

Thats good enough for me! Bring it on!



Have to say looks a beauty

[pireric] 06/6/2018 17:10

Good luck P. Fingers crossed this is heading for 700 and beyond through the rest of this year

[pratt2] 06/6/2018 14:27

I ve done some more research and considering even this revised upward forecast is exlcuding the insitutional element.I have bought in today.GLA

[pireric] 06/6/2018 10:09

Ok though 5% of the difference is last year were exceptional IPO costs and stock comp is non cash which was the other 5%. So would want to use the underlying margin of 50% which is what most companies would call adjusted EPS

[pratt2] 06/6/2018 07:24

Difference between our calcs is the margin, I used 40, you ve used 50. Extra 10% is 2.2m EBIT. Thats the diff. Either way, moot point if new markets increase top line susbtantially!GLA

[pireric] 05/6/2018 23:09

Numbers still wrong imo though just off the top of my head

22m revs at 50% EBIT mgn is 11m EBIT. No big interest movements, tax at 18% (use 20 if you like) so 9m post tax profit / 33m = 27p.

[pratt2] 05/6/2018 11:55

Ok let me try it another way which is a lot easier.Assuming they maintain their 60% growth from last year, rev would beat current forecast and be around 22m.At an aggressive 40% pre tax op margin (last year was 41%, more recruitment this year so I m expecting margins to be lower), thats 8.8m. Crudely post tax would be 7.1 m net earnings.31.4m shares in issue so eps would roughly be 22.6 and at current pe of 27.9 that gives me a share price of 630. i.e. current share price almost bakes in above growth. If, however, things changes based on Institutional markets, higher margins etc then obviously this will change.Just think current share price is a fair valuation at the moment. Opportunity was at sub 500Still a good speculative one I guess if they completely blow estimates out of the water and inrease market share!Thoughts?

[pireric] 05/6/2018 11:33

I think the excitement is that they have about 1% mkt share in the UK, are expanding into Europe as well as the institutional side

[pireric] 05/6/2018 11:32

Makes more sense,though the 8.3 pre tax is the better number to use as then you can skip the tax bridge. Your bridge from this up to revenues will still be off

[nimbo1] 05/6/2018 11:19

I think the excitement here will be the institutional market - could transform their long term prospects and turbo charge growth rates.

Bamboo if you have a sec, any views on another alpha - alpha financial markets consulting, from a chart perspective.

[pratt2] 05/6/2018 11:16

I was referring to post tax earnings when i mentioned 7m. Does that make sense?

[pireric] 05/6/2018 10:48

Don't think you have your calcs right. the 20.9p is 8.3m pre tax profit and revenue is 17m so revenue growth forecasts are much lower at +25 pp to 26. You can bridge these numbers to work out the EBIT, tax rate etc

hxxps://uk.webfg.com/equity/Alpha_Fx_Group

Check the forecasts table. These Are Liberum's #s

[pratt2] 05/6/2018 09:47

Been looking at the numbers on AFX. Expected EPS in 2018 is 20.9 which which roughly equates to around 7m net profit. Assuming similar profit margins from prior years that would mean around 22m Revenue.2017 revenues were at 13.5 so to achieve 22m we are looking at around 60% yoy growth which is in line with last years growth.I d say unless results in July are really good and above expectations, price seems right at the minute. I may be completely wrong, (usually am!) and very happy to be challenged on these numbers.Of course, other considerarion is that with AFX now tackling Institutions as well, that could mean a completely diff trajectory. I reckon markets waiting to see first set of results since they ve taken on this new market too..GLA!

[pireric] 04/6/2018 10:53

Wouldn't mind 800p by the end of the year IF they can come out ahead of expectations. In line with expectations only and that's too challenging IMO.
P/E of 30 if they end up growing sales 30-35% wouldn't be crazy in my eyes. I do think they'll beat expectations for this year

[nimbo1] 04/6/2018 10:51

Turn up by the looks of things.

[bamboo2] 02/6/2018 18:13

Potential turn Monday.
Any retrace likely to be short lived. Then another 50p +

[toffeeman] 02/6/2018 16:23

Longshanks: nope - I didn't!

[woodcutter] 01/6/2018 12:24

had some more again today.

woody