Alpha Fx Share Discussion Threads

[earwacks] 10/4/2020 09:09

I think this sums up the financial industry perfectly. 'Basically you can make your own rules and keep them secret: AIM companies as part of AIM rule 21 are though also now required to have in place at all times a dealing policy which must also specify the company’s closed periods. This dealing policy though is not required to be published publically by the company and therefore it may not always be clear whether the company is in a closed period of not.'

[bori5] 10/4/2020 00:05

guys can someone please advise here.

for director buys: does the close period only apply to 60days before Half and FY results.

or, as some pi's say, does it also apply to 60 days before an RNS?

Do you see what I am saying here?

[earwacks] 08/4/2020 18:14

Providing they dont get any more debts, its a brilliant move. Excellent execution too. So many companies do this badly i'e advertise they are going to have a placing weeks before by which time the share price tanks below the placing and then they have to drop the placing price. I've seen it happen many times. These guys announced the placing yesterday and completed on the same day. Never heard of that happening before. Of course they wouldnt probably needed to if not for the 30 million they are owed being paid back in weekly instalments of £266,000 for the next two years. They had a potential disaster on their hands and turned it into a positive. Skilful management and good contacts. This has dropped back to share price of November, so I would think that is pretty safe plus getting the placing way at £6.80 was barely a discount.

[2toptrader] 07/4/2020 09:32

Wow, I bought at 5.40 and still holding. :-)

[ali47fish] 07/4/2020 08:36

normally on a placing the share price goes down - this is up 7 pc- does that mean this a good move anan opp to add

[euclid5] 07/4/2020 08:25

Good to see the BoD & employees investing nearly £1.9M into the placing - far better than most other co's when they raise

"Several Directors being Morgan Tillbrook, Henry Lisney, Tim Kidd, Clive Kahn and Matt Knowles have indicated an intention to subscribe for up to, in aggregate, 52,941 Placing Shares at the Placing Price. In addition, certain employees of the Company and their family have also indicated an intention to subscribe for up to 225,735 new ordinary shares in the Company at the Placing Price

[john09] 07/4/2020 07:21

Boosting the balance sheet....

Good that they’ve got it away. Bit of a red flag i think

[ali47fish] 06/4/2020 11:00

this one is racing on but as everything is up in the air you dont know whether this rise is solid and sustainable! any one with insight please comment on this conundrum

[encarter] 06/4/2020 08:49

No stock available. A bit more good news and it will rocket. Hold tight.

[liam1om] 03/4/2020 12:18

Exactly, every investment has risks, look at the performance of some of the large caps over the past few months. Airlines for example, who could have foreseen them shutting down for months on end?

I bought in here yesterday after reading the RNS. Sounds like a sensible deal for all parties and after a near 50% collapse a few days prior, I like the reward/risk profile.

[encarter] 03/4/2020 09:41

Going by yesterday's announcement, it can't happen again. They still get the cash but not all at once.

[sonofbanjosinger] 03/4/2020 09:01

A food importer....probably trading on thin margins and who knows what the future holds..if it can happen once, it always happen again. Not exactly a low risk when the companies profit can be wiped out with one transaction.

[sdmbot] 03/4/2020 08:53

Norway's primary food export is fish.

If they couldn't make margin payment that represented a 15% adverse move and cost them £30.02M to cancel presumably the forward contract(s) were for ~ £200M that's a lot of fish.

Is my maths correct?

Incidentally does anyone have an idea of how much their forward book is generally?
ie what the value forward contracts that they have any one time?

I'm reckoning about £2.5B but that primarily comes from guess work and the liberum note.

[2toptrader] 03/4/2020 08:46

The one that pays its bills.

[toffeeman] 03/4/2020 08:27

But which food exporter?

[encarter] 02/4/2020 22:36

They're a food exporter and a large one. They only way that their business will fold is if we all die.

[sonofbanjosinger] 02/4/2020 19:12

My point is that they took on to much risk...the money now locked away waiting for repayment was obviously working capital that was required by the business....l see this as a big negative and shows the business model has flaws. One Bad trade could have taken the company out ..they were lucky that the said company is in a strong position or though how do you know if this will be the case in a few months time.

[2toptrader] 02/4/2020 18:50

Yes, excellent points.
Also, to understand why this happened, it was at the time when investors worldwide capitulated and bought US dollars for safety. Basically went into cash. That caused an unprecedented spike in the dollar against all currencies, have a look at the pound alone and it was even worse for non major currencies. So it was an external, macro event.
Yes, it exposed the weakness of the business model but 2 reasons why this shouldn't happen again:
1 this macro events are extremely rare , last time it happened in 08-09 and it was half as bad.
2 they learned the lesson and that's why they showed us their top 20 positions: all major currencies and low customer concentration.

I also agree with the above post. AFX could have proceeded with litigation to get all the money in one go. But why treat a long standing customer like this, during this corona mayhem. Excellent management.
The share price fell 50% for a "bad" debt that they'll get it back anyway, no make sense to me.
Keep buying the dip I say. and have a little patience.

[haveapunt1] 02/4/2020 18:21

I would rather have a debtor that’s so busy they need the money owed to AFX to keep up with substantial demand, than a debtor that has no work and likely to become insolvent.

AFX have made the sensible decision with a large food exporter that clearly in the current climate has significant turnover and likely margin coming

Still sitting with double digits cash in the bank. Happy days

Good decisive management

[haveapunt1] 02/4/2020 18:18

Raise haha. You can tell the ones that are too lazy to read. Clearly not seen the cash position, or looked at the forecast for this year, or the £1mil a month return on the bad debt.
Oh and anyone see the note the debtor has the option to PAY ALL EARLY, IMO that’s in the RnS because the debtor is SO BUSY they need the capital to keep up with demand. Hence they will likely have massive money coming in once this blows over to pay off way before 2 years!

[john09] 02/4/2020 17:39

Over 2 years to get the dough?! Dow

[earwacks] 02/4/2020 17:03

So they get one million by this Friday and a weekly payment for 2 years plus about 2% interest, and they should do the same business as last year when the stock was well over £10. I suppose you could say the growth is flat for next year. Expect they are being conservative. Problem solved, they keep a major good client. Whats the fuss?