Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[hosede] 10/2/2015 09:23

7m NAV just going to be whacked about 20% by the 1.35m fee - Barclays must be loving this

[senor_sensible] 10/2/2015 09:01

The recent NAV calculation did not include the extention to the ALU site, nor was it corrected for recent valuation, I have NAV as over 14p per share.

[h2owater] 10/2/2015 08:50

-- ADJUSTED NAV* 10.7 PENCE PER SHARE AS AT 30 SEPTEMBER 2014 (30 JUNE 2014: 12.0 PENCE PER SHARE)VALUATION AND NET ASSET VALUE ("NAV")The Trust's investment portfolio was last valued on 30 June 2014 at EUR278.0m (GBP217.2m at 30 September 2014 exchange rate) giving an average valuation yield across the portfolio of 8.2% (French portfolio 8.1% and Spanish portfolio 9.0%).The next independent revaluation will take place as at 31 December 2014.As at 30 September 2014 the adjusted NAV* is 10.7 pence per share. The decrease in adjusted NAV from 30 June 2014 (12.0 pence per share) is due to the combined effect of Euro weakening and the loss incurred in the period.*Adjusted NAV - unaudited, after adjustments for the interest rate swap derivatives and 50% of the deferred tax provisions.

[envirovision] 10/2/2015 08:46

if anyone was stupid enough to buy these in the last few months, this is likely to be their only chance to exit with a good profit imo

[senor_sensible] 10/2/2015 08:42

todays news confirms my opinion on the NAV and increase in property valuation

[6ste] 10/2/2015 08:42

Buying pressure still good

[aspex] 10/2/2015 08:36

Provided they can resolve the problem the price is still well below the current NAV. It is just standard risk v reward question?Any bets?

[senor_sensible] 10/2/2015 08:34

maybe break 5p today?

[senor_sensible] 10/2/2015 08:31

market seems to like the news :-)

[pugugly] 10/2/2015 08:30

still a dead dog - What appears to be movement is just the maggots moving under the skin + plus the managment in a job for a few more months (imo)

[blackpoolsteve] 10/2/2015 08:07

True red army.

Reminds me of the Monty Python sketch : =

" Is this investment dead? No sir,its just resting"

[senor_sensible] 10/2/2015 07:38

Extended the re-financing, worth noting that they have not broken any covenents which bodes well for the LTV, not over the moon about paying a 1.3% charge on the extension though.

[hosede] 02/2/2015 13:04

I'm afraid any idea that the Eurozone is going to magically recover is optimistic in the extreme. Japan has tried 25 years of QE and is in a worse mess now than in 1990.

[senor_sensible] 29/1/2015 12:00

Nothing wrong with shorting as long as you don't also try to spread mis-information. in fact they have probably done the shareholders a favour here by making sure the company could not tap the market. As many are aware, the companies AofA do not allow the BOD to sell shares below the NAV, which is about 12p per share. Therefore the company and Barx have to find a sensible solution, the QE and weak euro push that to a more favourable one for the shareholders, as long as the company can arrange finance for 5 years this will multibag possibly 20x

[envirovision] 29/1/2015 11:27

what shorter are they then, i dont see any of the stock out on loan?

[mgalle] 29/1/2015 10:36

The Shorters seem to be suggesting that the Alph board was not just misled, or more than a bit stupid but conspired with Barx to create the currency hedge situation which for them to win, Europe had to disappear under the waves. They therefor will do a deal which keeps their jobs but cuts the shareholders out and is a big win for Barx without a fire sale taking place.

Nice to know the shorters are going for the big 0.

[senor_sensible] 29/1/2015 09:12

on contrary, qe and weakened euro will make Euro companies cheap, companies with a cost base in the Euro will do very well, and they will need to do very well from nice offices and commercial buildings. And because they get fewer dollars when they export and the fact it cost more euros to import will force inflation up and the best hedge against inflation is leveraged property, especially with index linked rental agreements.

QE and weak euro is good for ALPH, on the other hand, if barx tried to force a fire sale, they would get a lot less than property value and the currency exchange will cause them to take a big haircut, perhaps a 20% loss on the capital for barx, compared to making a few percent interest in a low interest market. it is in Barx interest to see ALPH re-financed and to proceed the next 5 years as a good going concern. if not there will be plenty of other instis who will take the 0% qe money and earn 3-5% buckshee from alph on a property portfolio that is undervalued.

This could be trading above 10p this year, still some uncertainties and risk but a 7x return makes it worth the risk IMO

[red army] 28/1/2015 09:10

These directors are destroying the wealth of the company and have been for a while - it is criminal and they should be held to account instead of drawing their fees under false pretence.

[hosede] 27/1/2015 14:28

I'm afraid I agree with Enviro here. Europe - and France particularly - are heading into deep recession: property prices will trend down rather than up, and QE will have little effect

[red army] 27/1/2015 13:06

This board needs to get their finger out as they have had enough warning as to when the loan expires and sufficient time to do something about it.
They are tired and ineffective with very little regard for shareholders.

This situation is like watching a rabbit (board of directors) staring in the headlights of a car and waiting for the inevitable to happen.

The company needs new blood and directors that can direct.

[mgalle] 27/1/2015 13:00

It does not actually say the 3 month extension has been granted yet. Not suprised as another Property Trust was given a 6 month extension to sell property and then survived - so far. I view it as a positive development.

I am not sure what the differences are between European style QE and the US QE. If they are much the same then we are entering a world of effectively negative interest rates and coercion of reluctant banks to lend.

I agree with Sensible that it should be possible to get a cheaper loan which means that the extra debt from the swap deal should start to be paid off.

I hope Envirovision is wrong and that the Alpha board are not plotting against the share holders.

[senor_sensible] 27/1/2015 11:44

3 months puts this in the QE window, cheaper and more readily available finance.

[envirovision] 27/1/2015 11:18

I should add that I think the only reason the bank has given them 3 more months is because the board have treated them well over the years with all those interest rate swap deals and currency hedging arrangements.

I also think the reason the board are only now entering into third party negotiations at the gone midnight hour is because this puts them in a position to exterminate the shareholders equity.

If you are wondering why I think this is so, it is a conclusion merely based upon the inexplicable interest rate and currency hedges used over the years which has all but wiped out any remaining shareholder equity.

[envirovision] 27/1/2015 11:12

I suspect it will survive, its assets are income producing and the estate manageable.

However the new third party lenders will take the equity, shareholders will be left with nothing.

If something else were to happen which could realise any value for existing shareholders, I'm afraid I am at a total loss to imagine what it could possibly be!