Atlantic Lithium Share Discussion Threads

[givmesunshine] 10/12/2021 07:59

Morning Lithium prices China's lithium prices continue rally on tight availability, year-end restockingBattery-grade lithium prices in China edged higher over the week to Thursday December 9 on lingering tightened availability of spot units and year-end restocking among buyers.Lithium prices in China's domestic market rose on persistent tightness in supply and year-end restocking.Seaborne East Asian market holds steady while spot units remain tight.European, US markets also stable amid constrained supply.Market participants in China broadly reported that there was a severe shortage of battery-grade lithium carbonate, while supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was also tight, albeit to a less serious degree.Fastmarkets' assessment of the lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 215,000-230,000 yuan ($33,789-36,146) per tonne on Thursday, up by 5,000-10,000 yuan per tonne from 210,000-220,00 yuan per tonne a week earlier.Fastmarkets' assessment of the lithium hydroxide monohydrate, LiOH.H2O 56.5% LiOH min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China was 195,000-205,000 yuan per tonne on Thursday, narrowing upward by 10,000 yuan per tonne from 185,000-205,000 yuan...

[74tom] 09/12/2021 10:42

Agree with all of the analysis / opinions posted this morning, a current £300m market cap would seem about right & each step we take that brings us closer to production should result in further market cap growth. The main steps over the next 18-24 months as I see it are;

- Official Piedmont commitment to Stage 2 spending (exploration spend has already started as per Tuesday's presentation)
- Pre Feasibility Study - End Q1 22 (as per broker notes)
- Definitive Feasibility Study - Q3/4 2022
- Piedmont Stage 3 spending commitment (mine & plant build) - Q4 2022
- Completion of build - late 2023?
- Commencement of mining - end 2023

Liberum & Cannacord broker notes forecast ~A$89m &A$103m revenue in FY2024, with Cannacord growing to A$338m by 2025. Both notes can be accessed via Research Tree.

In between now and then we can expect continued resource growth, improved scoping studies & potential offtake news, all of which should bolster the share price.

Happy days surely lie ahead here as more PI's discover just how exciting the Ewoyaa / Cape Coast Lithium project is :)

[givmesunshine] 09/12/2021 09:56

Mine life 30-50 %!less than ours also Plus I think our numbers are only going to prove up

[givmesunshine] 09/12/2021 09:43

Good analysis.. I think that's an excellent baseline point of view.

[willo] 09/12/2021 09:31

I agree - look at Core on the ASX. Their current market cap is A$868m = £471m. Their resource is 14.7mt, versus our 21.3mt (10.65mt attributable to ALL). Their op costs are $364/t, versus our $249/t. Their production will be 197ktpa, versus our 300ktpa (150ktpa attributable to ALL). So assume their t of production is equal in value to ours (ie balance perceived W Africa risk versus their higher cost of production), we should be trading at roughly 75% of their market cap, with a discount for the fact that we are one year or so behind. So market cap today should be c. £300m.

[ukgeorge] 09/12/2021 09:22

Surely the recent resource upgrade and scoping study justifies 40-50p price range. Most li plays on respected exchanges have doubled and more this year while we have basically just consolidated.

As the share price is now at around a three and half year high there shouldn't be much resistance going forward, everyone is in the money. Longer term I'm holding tight with the likely end game being a takeover and then hopefully there is a fight over the company.

We also will be getting another resource upgrade from the 28km of drilling that hasn't been incorporated into the recent resource, which is expected to take the LOM to over 15years. The IRR will probably be over 200% by then.

We also still haven't negotiated off take agreements for our 50% of production. Lots of potential.

[hugotanha] 09/12/2021 09:02

Very short sighted to sell @this price. 40p by end of December. Period

[givmesunshine] 09/12/2021 08:38

It’s hard to say - and @ what point in time - the data is maturing the offtake s contracts and funding are sorted

@ this point in time I’m going for double where we are now , but 12 month plan pretty much laid out and business case is off very low metrics - every development is going to add much more through to production or takeout - potential6-8 bagger over 18 months IMO

[hugotanha] 09/12/2021 08:18

40p minimum

[leeawill20] 09/12/2021 07:20

Out of curiosity what do you think is fair stock value at this stage

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 18:41

Cheers Although Clear that there more than one buying today !Going to do some research on other Lithium miners - I think it will show how cheap this is - even without taking into account the Free invisible gains - location, infrastructure etc

[74tom] 08/12/2021 17:14

Good to have a new investor on board! I think it’s mad that both here & LSE are so quiet, it seems as if a lot of PI’s have just given up trying to research new shares & decided that there is nothing decent out there… Personally I think this is streets ahead of the likes of HZM, no debt + huge IRR and and huge potential to grow further. To have a 194% IRR at just 11.4 years of mine life is extraordinary, what an opportunity!

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 16:46

Recent article on lithium price outlook 15th Nov 2021

presentation - looking to get producing by 2023.. $900 Tonne looks a low benchmak - but I suppose we never know what will happen in this world..

Analysts say ‘rally beyond expectations’ could hit adoption of EVs
With demand for electric vehicles (EV) battery materials rising sharply against supplies that are well short, prices of lithium, a key ingredient for EV batteries, are set to increase further despite having soared 400 per cent year-on-year.

The skyrocketing of lithium prices will likely to slow down people’s adoption of EVs, analysts fear.

Projecting a further rise in prices, UK-based Data analytics and consulting firm Global Data said in its “Thematic Research: Electric vehicle batteries (2021)’’, that one of the core challenges for EV adoption is keeping the cost of a lithium-ion battery as low as possible.

Prices of lithium carbonate that were averaging at $10,000 a tonne last year would rise to $14,000 by 2024, it said. According to the Trading Economics Website, lithium carbonate is currently quoted at 195,000 yuan ($30,559), up 401 per cent year-on-year and 320 per cent since the beginning of this year.

Price outlook

Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research (FSCRIR) said in its note that lithium prices have rallied beyond its expectations, forcing the agency to raise its price outlook for the battery material.

“We are, therefore, significantly revising up our carbonate and hydroxide lithium price forecasts from 2021 to 2026. We now see carbonate prices averaging $18,050/tonne in 2021, up 183 per cent year-on-year ($13,450 previously), and averaging $21,000 in 2022, up 16.3 per cent year-on-year ($15,025 previously) ... We see significant upside risks to our 2022 price forecasts,” FSCRIR said.

Global Data thematic analyst Daniel Clarke said: “The rising price of lithium demonstrates what many in the industry have warned about for some time: the growing divergence between supply and demand for lithium. Ultimately, this will lead to an increase in the price of EVs, as automakers pass the cost onto the consumer.”

Bank of America recently said in its research report that the global electric vehicle industry faces an imminent threat that battery supply could run out as early as 2025.

Batteries make up a significant portion of an EV’s total costs, though the price of a lithium-ion battery pack has dropped nearly 90 per cent since 2010.

Rising EV sales
Fitch Solutions said global EV sales are projected to be higher this year, resulting in an increase in lithium demand estimate.

“In the very near term, prices look set to continue heading higher, as the lithium market remains very tight and there is little downside for prices. Demand will keep outstripping supply for now, for both raw material (spodumene) and chemicals (carbonate and hydroxide). Prices could stabilize later on in 2022 following the impressive rally recorded in 2021, but we still see them averaging higher on a year-on-year basis…,” it said.

The lithium market could tighten further next year as global surplus could shrink. The momentum behind the decarbonization is robust, keeping the EV sector buoyant, and this will result in strong demand, it said.

However, EV sales could decelerate next year since recovery this year has been sharp. Still, EV sales could expand by 40 per cent year-on-year - stronger than pre-Covid growth, Fitch Solutions said, quoting its automobile team which sees an 2.2 million EV cars addition every year.

Chinese domination

Fitch Solutions said global production of lithium carbonate equivalent will increase 18 per cent next year.

Global Data’s Clarke said China - which dominates the lithium-Ion battery supply chain in terms of battery cells, cathode and anode production, and chemical refining - will continue its domination for another five years. This will be despite the best efforts of the US or the European Union.

The recent episode of UK chemical firm Johnson Matthey quitting the battery material business for the automotive industry is seen as one of the strong reasons for this. Johnson Matthey said it was shutting its Poland operations and dropping Finland plans citing growing competition as a major reason.

“The potential returns from our battery materials business will not be sufficient to justify further investment,”the UK company said in a statement. It plans to sell all or, if not, a part of its battery business.

“The recent decision by Johnson Mathey to withdraw from UK battery manufacturing demonstrates just how hard building a supply chain can be. Western economies are quite far behind China already, with the country having held an 80.5 per cent share of lithium-ion battery capacity in 2020,” Clarke said.

Fitch Solutions said global supply growth will accelerate from 2023 onwards and demand growth will continue to be buoyant. Battery manufacturing locations will drive geographical demand for lithium, it said

“China will remain the largest battery manufacturer by far for the time being (accounting for about 80 per cent of installed manufacturing capacity as of 2020), but existing other manufacturers including Japan, South Korea, the US, Hungary will likely record a rise in battery manufacturing,”; the rating agency said.

Relatively new entrants will also establish themselves as increasingly important manufacturers including Germany, Poland, Sweden, France, the UK, Thailand and Indonesia, it said.

Published on November 15, 2021

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 16:31

Norman Bates .. No mates !!I must admit I'm surprised it's so quiet - Thanks for your research though. Broke through a 3 year high today without any real resistance which I think shows that this is just beginning- only spotted this by accident - glad to be onboard- have a good evening

[ukgeorge] 08/12/2021 15:09

It's nice to have some others posting and joining the journey. It is normally me talking to myself :)

It is also great to finally have a decent up day. There shouldn't be much resistance as well as most holders will be in the money so no stale longs will be selling into rises.

Fundamentals are on our side, growing resource, capex funded, really is a compelling story. I've spent months wondering if I had got this wrong and missed something.

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 13:46

Yes - saw that - been through the RNS's There not many miners out there funded to operations, with take offs in place, in a start of a long term bull market @this valuation .. Got me invested and appears relatively low risk high rewards (compared to AIM in general )GLA

[ukgeorge] 08/12/2021 13:42

Looks like I got all the extra Ricca shares that I applied for in the recent demerger. They have appeared in my share dealing account.

givmesunshine, this company demerged their gold assets and changed the name last month.

[ukgeorge] 08/12/2021 13:37

It is exciting isn't it :)

Roll on a much fairer valuation.

The main risk is not having enough :) (hopefully not famous last words)

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 13:08

Within the scoping - financials based lithium spodumene concentrate 6% @ $900 Metric tonne. From what i can gather currently spot price about $2400 AUD = $ 1700 USD

S&P Global Platts assessed the weekly 6% lithium oxide (SC6) spodumene concentrate price at $2,564/mt on an FOB Australia basis, up $120/mt from the previous record of $2,444/mt on Sept.

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 12:49

Thanks George

As i understand it

Piedmont have 50% of Ewoyaa for a approx investment of $100mil to fund capex to production. Its based on a pain / gain contract assuming all goes well, ALL have a free ride on this.

50% offtake of production has been aggred with piedmont, but this is for all of Ghana projects, but ALL still currently have 100% of all other projects.

It does look very cheap to me - you can see the frustration in the presentation especially with funding and 50% of offtake agreed - The numbers are already very very good, plus huge potential to upscale significantly..

Any skeletons? Risks other than the usual?

[ukgeorge] 08/12/2021 12:09

From LSE

Dear all, I thought Vincent did an exceptional job in giving us an update on the Scoping Study upgrade at Ewoyaa. This is a very exciting project and to understand the potential fully I'd recommend listening to the LSE interview carefully and working through previous RNS's to fully understand the detail. Please view the full video presentation and Q&A here: hxxps://youtu.be/7XFmZvELWD8

[ukgeorge] 08/12/2021 11:55

Yes, approximately 1/3 of the drill results haven't been included in the recent resource upgrade 28km worth of drilling. The recent resource upgrade took the Life of Mine to 11 years. Vincent said he expects the LOM to be increased to 15 years.

He mentioned they had got some high grade results coming as well.

Longer term they are hoping that other deposits will be found on the cape coast, they have 560 square km to explore.

[givmesunshine] 08/12/2021 11:26

Very impressive presentation - lots to come - I understand there is still a lot more to come from the current drills that haven't been analysed yet ?