Alliance Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[onjohn] 20/9/2022 21:39

Are they going jail

[wba1] 20/9/2022 21:39

Just a few points;

That APH acquires niche medicines in no way precludes it selling on rights and no court would see that as unusual, especially when a company has done so on other occasions. It is perfectly normal commercial activity. The onus would be on the CMA to show any other motive with evidence.

Either the entire board are complicit in a cover up or there are no side agreements which can be evidenced regarding the disposal and pricing of the drug. If the former then the problem is much worse than we think. If the latter then the CMA case is built on straw.

It really is worth looking at the L&G/Prosser case. In essence the FSA found mis-selling of financial products but based that on no more than rumour and similar (evidenced) cases in the industry. It was that lack of solid evidence specific to the case which caused the hugely embarrassing defeat for the FSA. This is a similar situation unless the board are misleading us.

I agree that the conflation of on course for full year forecast and timing of some restocking orders is a concern, although some assurance comes from the comment about orders received in July.

I think this is one which will affect the share price for the next 12-18 months, but some recovery is likely if full year forecasts are delivered.

[wad collector] 20/9/2022 20:32

Ouch, the dividend may be up , but the market is viewing the reduced EPS with the critical eye of the moment closing at a 2 yr low.
The "On Course to meet FY Expectations " doesn't cut the mustard when suffixed with "noting that the timing of certain orders in Q4 is dependent on the rate of recovery in those markets."

Bit more clarity about the legal case;

The Group believes that it has a strong case and has appealed the CMA's decision, and the proposed fine of GBP7.9m, with its appeal now fixed to be heard at the Competition Appeal Tribunal from 5th June 2023.

Despite its Appeal, the Directors believe that, as a result of the Infringement Decision, a provision of GBP7.9m should be recorded at 30 June 2022 (31 December 2021: GBP7.9m).

This reflects the amount of the proposed fine communicated by the CMA, and therefore, notwithstanding the Directors' belief as to the merits of the grounds on which it is appealing the CMA decision, the Directors consider this to be the appropriate position given that, in the event that the Group's appeal proved to be unsuccessful, the ultimate level of the fine cannot be greater than this. In addition, in the event the Group's appeal were to prove to be unsuccessful, the Directors consider that there are strong grounds upon which the amount of the fine could be reduced. However, as this is a matter which cannot be predicted with certainty at this time the Directors believe that the most appropriate course of action is to include the maximum potential amount of the fine.

If the appeal is unsuccessful, the Group may also be liable for a proportion of the legal costs of the CMA relating to the appeal. The Group has not recorded a provision in relation to these potential litigation costs as their amount cannot be reliably estimated.

[wad collector] 19/9/2022 09:39

Interims tomorrow.

[winnings1] 05/9/2022 22:50

I reckon the appeal court will judge against APH because APH will have
to explain the sale of a niche medicine to an 'unscrupulous' outfit whilst
APH specializes in acquiring niche medicines,collects niche-medines for
its portfolio of niche-medicines.


.

[wad collector] 02/9/2022 22:43

I think it is very difficult to judge this situation from outside the Boardroom doors, we are left guessing.
If worst comes to worst, how valuable is the CEO?
I have no idea .

[gopher] 02/9/2022 20:56

Thanks for the todays posts. My only thoughts were whether the CMA would have been better to go after CEO and directors in the first place as opposed to Alliance

[wba1] 02/9/2022 16:15

wad collector;
I think your analysis is sound, but I expect this to progress to the Appeal Court if the CAT appeal is unsuccessful, although that would need to be on a point of law. In the FSA/L&G/Prosser case it was the judges in the High Court who applied a proper judicial requirement for solid evidence to throw out the case and criticise the FSA, so I am optimistic that the specialist judges in the CAT will apply similar standards.
In terms of company value it is difficult to see why this is having such an impact. Underlying performance seems to be robust (and we will be even clearer shortly with the results) and the great thing about APH is free cash flow, which is exceptional. I would be more concerned about the Chinese exposure than this case in terms of value and, even there, regard it as manageable given the broad product and geographic base. As for KPMG; it is legitimate for there to be a difference between an auditor and a company in these specific circumstances. That is much more worrying when the reasons are opaque. I am sure you are right about the market being uncomfortable with all the noise around this issue but, at some point, it will clear. But I can imagine this stretching into 2024, especially as the CMA are attemting to impose exemplary punishments for refusing to admit guilt. It all smells more like the US legal system with the innocent forced to plead guilty to avoid the death sentence.

[wad collector] 02/9/2022 15:39

The massive price rise in buccal prochlorperazine to the NHS was outrageous ,it suddenly went up about 700% for a few yrs and this year has gone back down by the same factor.
The CMA press release in May19 damned Alliance as conspiring to pay the competitors through its distributor Focus who paid a share to the competitors between 2013 and 2018 , fining APH £7.7M.
That appeared to be the end of the story apart from the appeal against that fine which will be heard early next summer. So the Disqualification Order trial will only be heard if the appeal is unsuccessful and it includes the CEO and director John Dawson .Though the latter resigned in 2019 from APH when that story surfaced.
If the APH statement is correct and

" Alliance out-licensed prochlorperazine to a distributor in 2013 in return for an agreed fixed transfer price. Since that time Alliance has had no involvement or control over, and did not benefit from, the in-market pricing of the product, which is entirely managed by the distributor."

then the case should be thrown out, but I guess it depends on how the CMA views the independence of the distributor company and whether the agreement was legal.
So it will hang over APH for another year, and possibly result in disqualifications of CEO and another ex-director as well as the fine.
APH also changed their auditor a month ago as KPMG were not happy with the way the fine was accounted for last year, that doesn't look good either. No-one here commented on it.
The market clearly doesn't like it.
So if you are confident that the company is innocent then it is a good buying opportunity.....

[wba1] 02/9/2022 10:23

It looks as if the regulator is attempting intimidation in revenge for APH challenging them. I trust APH will take this all the way and that Butterfield will seek damages from them if and when APH win the case. It is an almost carbon copy of the FSA tactics against L&G and Prosser years back, when the FSA were exposed as utterly incompetent and prepared to sanction companies with no evidence of wrongdoing.

[2vdm] 01/9/2022 07:53

Results due on 20th Sept - see RNS today

[blackhorse23] 25/7/2022 23:01

CURY (LSE) another all ticked box stock .. revenue growth 10 per to 10.1 billion, profit 186 million, dividend yields 7 percentage , share buy back allocated 75 millions pounds....

[2vdm] 21/7/2022 09:55

Kicking myself for not buying more earlier this a.m.

[jimee] 20/7/2022 21:32

Expect a bit of a rebound tomorrow and or Monday.

[powereddrones] 20/7/2022 19:05

Everything in TU is broadly in line with market expectations, and yet the price falls, why? Have I missed something?


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There is trouble in the pharmacy sector. Testerworld collapsed and didn't find a buyer. Boots withdraws it's sale as it can't get the price it wants. And take a look at the high turnover of drivers - it is a thankless task. Pharmacies are starting to close as they can't find staff to keep them open.

There are various headwinds that I see on the ground anecdotally.

[eigthwonder] 20/7/2022 18:45

management have quite a long track record of being quick to give you the good news and slow to admit the bad stuff. TU has plenty of flags to make you worry about H2 - all this on a company which has outperformed because it has picked up the "defensive" label.

[dogwalker] 20/7/2022 15:31

This is true.

[haroldthegreat] 20/7/2022 14:12

the menopausal product in the states has seen a decline . There is only one ingredient in it that seems not available on its own . To be honest I haven't checked but i have never come across it before . I will delve into it when i have time . The other ingredients are available in other forms but perhaps not in their particular forms . Whether their form of the ingredient is superior , as they claim , i do not know .
Someone may like to look at it . They make hydromol cream but i do not see much demand for it .

[2vdm] 20/7/2022 13:12

Blackhorse. Not sure about MCB. High level of debt and according to Simply Wall Street revenues look like declining over next 3 years. Here's the link: Good luck. I'm sticking with APH but dyor.
hxxps://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/household/lse-mcb/mcbride-shares#about

[2vdm] 20/7/2022 13:06

wad collector I agree and have topped up by 3K @ 100.23. Well run company and 2nd half looking strong.

[blackhorse23] 20/7/2022 12:08

MCAP to high compare to its revenue... MCB (LSE) looks very cheap today mcap 29 millions, revenue 700 millions .. growth 3 percentage with strong H2

[wad collector] 20/7/2022 10:10

Decided to add at 102 , seems like an opportunity to me.

[stevenlondon3] 20/7/2022 09:45

There was a 460,000 cross trade at around 101.5.

[westdean] 20/7/2022 09:37

Everything in TU is broadly in line with market expectations, and yet the price falls, why? Have I missed something?

[wad collector] 20/7/2022 09:21

It is on the Alliance website as one of their products but not specific about which countries; as you say, seems not the UK. Thornton and Ross, who in turn are part of the Stada group. These tangly international conglomerates are hard to follow. I see from the TU it is China that the Nizoral licence is held.


Sp taken a dive this am of 10% thanks to the TU. Which is in line, so looks a bit overdone.


Group see-through revenue of GBP81.6m was up 1% on the prior period (H1 21: GBP80.9m) and down 2% at constant exchange rates ("CER"). As detailed in our AGM trading statement on 18 May 2022, Group performance will be more heavily weighted to H2 than in previous years owing to the lockdown in Shanghai and associated temporary disruption to our supply chain, coupled with our anticipated revenue trajectory for both Nizoral(TM) and Amberen(TM).

Whilst we controlled our costs well in the Period, we expect H1 22 gross margin to be below prior year due to sales mix and some cost inflation in warehousing and distribution. We anticipate gross margin to improve in H2 22 through favourable product mix and lower freight costs as supply chains normalise. We remain focused on controlling operating costs and have efficiency programs in place to help mitigate further cost inflation.

In-market consumer demand for our brands remains strong and the Board expects that the full year financial performance will be in line with market expectations.