Allergy Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[scrappy86] 11/11/2024 13:27

@Totallybanjo Thank you. That's really interesting. I will continue to hold for the long term.

[scrappy86] 09/11/2024 21:18

Hi. What are your thoughts on a maximum share price if they found the answer to the Peanut allergy problem?

[scrappy86] 09/11/2024 21:16

Hi. I've held for a long time. Just wondered what your thoughts are on a possible share price if they found the answer to the Peanut allergy?

[totally banjo] 08/11/2024 15:55

Hi Vergeltung, some fair observations made in your post. I'm in for the longer term after purchasing more in my ISA a month ago, was showing a profit a few weeks ago! Edit- in profit, now it's spiked back up

There is risk involved as a lot depends on the ongoing product trials and approvals being successful but there are potentially high rewards too!

Speculate to accumulate or not!

[vergeltung] 08/11/2024 15:02

I hate to introduce a negative note to this up-beat exchange, but a couple of the items in this RNS really irritated me:

• 'Revenue of £55.2m (2023: £59.6m) from commercial portfolio, with encouraging H2
performance showing first period of half-year growth since 2021. Full year revenue impacted by supply constraints to key markets of Germany and Spain.'
We all know why there has been no period of half-year growth since 2021 - in October 2022, just when H1’22 making should have been at full spate, the management decided to initiate its “short-term pause in UK manufacturing to optimise quality systems and accelerate capacity improvements” - which precipitated non-supply of markets, the collapse of the share price, suspension from AIM and series of emergency financing measures of increasing cost which hit us all so hard. So well done, Llobet and crew, on eking out a 2% increase but that you should be 'encouraged' by this painfully slow recovery from your own self-imposed, catastrophically-timed management action is frankly alarming. And how on earth are the major markets of Germany and Spain still experiencing ‘supply constraints’ nearly 2 years after the ‘short term pause’?

• 'Implemented new Long Term Incentive Plan to align key leadership interests with long-term shareholder value creation and strategic objectives.'
Amazingly this is being represented as an achievement! It means Llobet is now reset to the new share price environment, - options with an exercise price of 0.1p - that’s right 1/10 of a penny - meaning he will not suffer from the share price having gone from the 20-30p range to the 1-5p range as a consequence of his decisions and actions. He has 9.65m options worth nearly £500k. I hardly need point out that the rest of us would have had to invest in the equity funding at 1p - 10x his exercise price - to avoid complete wipe-out. And with the exercise price so low the options have value even if the price collapses. Some incentive!

This makes me fear the board and management at AGY have learned no lessons from their lamentable performance since 2021 despite (finally!) recognising the effect it has had on minority shareholders.

So yes, we do have a longer cash runway (at considerable cost) and the development portfolio does hold great potential, so we are just one announcement away from a 2x price movement - but it's high risk and surely we can do better than this team to deliver for shareholders?

[totally banjo] 07/11/2024 14:11

Cheers Jimmy, appreciate your comments.

All appears to be going to plan which is great!

[jimmyloser] 07/11/2024 13:06

Afternoon Banjo,
My apologies as I have been travelling for a few days. Forgive my ramblings

My personal take is that the prelims are a very encouraging update. I appreciated the acknowledgment of the pain that minor shareholders have endured, it was a nice touch.
Having the company publically state that they are now in the best shape ever is also worth noting as is the fact that costs are at last, considered to be under control and that they are seeing growth returning to the top line.
Judging by the 'one off' costs incurred it appears that they may have reduced headcount significantly.
The progress of the two new products are both hailed as positive with no caveats. Which is itself is worth noting.
My belief is that the marketing application for Grass Mata along with the biomarker information for PROTECT peanut both again confirmed this side of Christmas, should push the share price into the (guess) 7/8p region. It is itching to break free as I type :-)
I was pleased to see Mary Tavener acknowledged for her role.
I also liked Cavendish's note and that they again confirm a price target of 13p and re-iterate the word 'blockbuster'
Financially, having someone of the ilk of Hayfin put up a potential £40,000,000 and make the coments that they did, doesn't shout BUY, to me it screams it.
Finally having our two major shareholders backing this to the hilt and treating us minnows so fairly, pleases me no end.

Looks very good to me.

impo/dyor et al.

[totally banjo] 07/11/2024 00:31

Just to add, if you are unhappy or have sold out then please say as it makes no odds but value your opinion?

[totally banjo] 07/11/2024 00:28

Jimmy, were you expecting more?

I thought the preliminary results were as expected although I thought the H2 performance would be higher but possibly still early days for that to kick in?

Overall it's what I had hoped for so I'm happy as in a long term hold!

[totally banjo] 06/11/2024 12:54

Well it's steady away with a 2% increase in revenue for H2 2024 with medical trials and approvals still all on track!

Not an earth shattering set of results by any means but happy to hold and maybe add for the longer term.

A bit from AGY broker

—Upcoming catalysts: Potential share-price catalysts for investor attention, which we note could materialise over the next 12 to 18 months include: (i) European approval and launch of Grass MATA MPL; (ii) first-year top-line efficacy and safety data from the long-term G308 study; and (iii) further data from the phase I/II PROTECT potential blockbuster VLP Peanut programme.

—Investment thesis: While we continue to envisage growth of AGY’s existing portfolio, the foundation of our enthusiasm and investment thesis remains long-term value creation, as the new products are rolled out globally and further clinical data become available. Both Grass MATA MPL and VPL Peanut could be on course to enter blockbuster (>$1bn) markets, and we believe both are likely to be very attractive to potential commercial partners.

[totally banjo] 06/11/2024 12:46

Audited Preliminary Results for the Year ended 30 June 2024

- Financial turnaround progressing with revenue growth in the second half, marking the first period of half year growth since 2021


- EBITDA pre-R&D and exceptionals loss of £6.8m for the year (2023: loss £10.6m), an improvement of 36%


- Post period, strengthened cash position through new £40m Hayfin facility, comprising £20m committed five-year term loan and £20m uncommitted incremental facility


- Pivotal Phase III Grass MATA MPL trial (G306) successfully meets primary endpoint; clinical development expanded to paediatric population with commencement of G308 Phase III trial and positive discussions with regulators on pathway to marketing authorisation application (MAA) submission


- Phase I/IIa VLP Peanut PROTECT trial remains on target with healthy and peanut allergic patients receiving subcutaneous doses with no unexpected safety signals





Manuel Llobet, CEO of Allergy Therapeutics, stated: "This year has been one of continued resilience, progress, and commitment. While navigating our challenges, we've remained laser-focused on what matters most - advancing our critical R&D programmes and strengthening our core operations.



"I'm particularly proud of what we've achieved with our Grass MATA MPL programme, where our pivotal Phase III G306 trial delivered exceptional results, showing a 20.3% improvement over placebo. Our VLP Peanut PROTECT trial is also progressing well, with safety data that continues to reinforce our confidence in the programme, and we look forward to our first biomarker-led efficacy data expected in Q4 2024.



"On the operational side, we've made significant strides in enhancing our manufacturing capabilities and implementing effective cost controls across the business. Meanwhile, our commercial performance has shown encouraging signs, with revenue growth in the second half - our first such growth since 2021. With the recent Hayfin facility and continued backing from our major shareholders, we now have the financial foundation to advance our key R&D programmes, particularly the upcoming regulatory submission for Grass MATA MPL and the continued development of our VLP Peanut programme. Looking ahead, Allergy Therapeutics is in its strongest strategic position in years, and I'm excited about what we can achieve."

[totally banjo] 02/11/2024 23:17

There's so much positive news that could arrive over the next few days, weeks and months which 'potentially' (that word again) could transform this company into a world leader in their field!

If all goes to plan they will either be bought out or have distribution deals with the major global players so the next few months and years are critical regarding AGY's future, again in my opinion!

[jimmyloser] 02/11/2024 17:00

I can't see any reason that they won't. I also expect the price to start rising quickly now as they move into a phase of putting 'meat on the bones' of the exciting story unveiled so far.impo

[totally banjo] 01/11/2024 17:38

And you, no sat outside pub playing banjo, bloody freezing 😀

[jimmyloser] 01/11/2024 17:22

I agree, enjoy your weekend Banjo. Are you practicing darts?

[totally banjo] 01/11/2024 17:17

It's weird how the share price ticks up near end of day pretty regularly, not complaining!

Looking forward to preliminary results, hopefully next week

[jimmyloser] 01/11/2024 16:36

All bodes well impo

[totally banjo] 31/10/2024 12:00

Jimmy, I wouldn't think they would deliberately hold back the Prelim Results because of the budget! More likely they are waiting for an update on one of the trials or approvals to complete the Results or just running late!

There's no rush as far as I'm concerned but I would expect them certainly be end of next week.

01 October 2024

Preparation of Allergy Therapeutics' preliminary financial results for the year ended 30 June 2024 is well underway and the Group now expects to publish its report by the end of October.

16 October 2024

The Group continues to deliver against its plan of improvements to its operational and quality systems, this has paved the way for increased manufacturing capacity and a return to sales growth which will be further detailed in the preliminary results.

[jimmyloser] 31/10/2024 10:38

IF, they did deliberately hold back from releasing what may well be (should be) their best ever statement and update it appears a wise move to keep it clear of the back draft of the budget.

As the proverb says: *Good things come to those who wait......and wait....and wait!

impo

*Fifteen years I have been waiting.

[vergeltung] 30/10/2024 12:42

Thanks @coinbase - I'll try to work out how to get on that and hopefully understand the trading in AGY a bit better!

[totally banjo] 29/10/2024 16:29

I used to be able to understand L2 but the rest is lost on me!

[coinbase] 29/10/2024 13:22

Keep half an eye on the Market Identifier Code (MIC) found on the LSE website. I think you’ll find that the vast majority are SINT (Systematic Internaliser) trades, not AIMX.