Agriterra Ld Share Discussion Threads

[odvod] 12/2/2014 12:56

Maize is a world commodity. One will buy.

[thomcooper] 12/2/2014 12:11

I'd be surprised if Mozambique goes wayward. They're the second best country in Africa after Mozambique IMO. There are some political hiccups that are less than desirable, but I believe that China will keep them on the straight & narrow. Plus, the people have started to see prosperity. They are going to fight tooth & nail if things start slipping back.

The only thing I would like to see them do is to get more involved in the fields with Maize. They could no doubt partner up with the existing farmers & improve methods & irrigation. Farmers would get greater yield whilst the company would be more vertically integrated.

One thing I'm struggling to figure 100% is how an increased Maize price will affect operations:

If the grain price rises, this is good for the farmers as it puts more money in their back pocket, but it means that maize meal needs to be sold at a higher price to maintain margins. Is the average Agriterra cornmeal customer going to be able to soak up the increase in price, or will it lead to less sales &/or squeezed margin?

I know that the CEO's statement in the annual suggested that lower prices hurt the company, but I'm not sure if this is the case or an excuse.

I guess its the same as the price of gold for jewellery makers. Is a higher price a good thing?

Either way, I think that their potential to export beef to China & the NTAV/share makes not having a dabble at this price mindless.

In any case, investing in a company thats improving the lives of the worlds poorest by providing a stable & trustworthy purchaser (hopefully) is as good as putting some money in an Oxfam tin. I wouldn't be surprised if pound for pound, this company are doing more to improve the lot of the worlds poorest than many NGO's.

[oiht] 12/2/2014 10:10

Thoughtful views TC and welcome aboard.
Rebel activity in Mozambique could through a spanner in the works but I'm starting to believe it's less and less likely.

[swooped] 12/2/2014 09:24

Did you watch Euan Kays video from November 13? If not I thought you might find it interesting being a new shareholder. link below.

strange my link disappeared I have placed it below again.

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/2310/agriterra-hopes-to-start-generating-profits-invery-near-future-2310.html

[thomcooper] 11/2/2014 22:45

I've dipped my toe into this today. My view is that the interim update is going to be either similar to previous accounts (i.e: not making any profit), or something special.

My view is that if they still can't turn a profit, then theres plenty of NAV to chip away at vs recent losses.

Their main produce - Maize / Corn is at 3 year lows at the moment, which possibly doesn't bode too well. But the outlook is more positive with less planting globally for the coming year. Also, last year was a very good weather wise. There are a few less favourable weather events occurring at the moment. With climate change, the chances of getting a drought or damp crop is a possibility.

Aside from Mozambique being the most exciting country in Africa in my opinion, unless the company racks up a huge loss, which would be hard unless they've done something really stupid, then the NTAV/Share provides a lot of insurance.

Longer term, I believe that China will play a big role in the fortunes of this firm. I am of the opinion that China are in the process of letting their currency slowly rise (as per third plenum). As their economy slows & they weed out the problems, I thin there will be a bit of civil unrest. To contain this, I think they'll increase the value of the RMB further to allow its citizens to consume more foreign goods (incl. food).

This article makes an interesting prediction for Chinese corn imports: hxxp://www.agrimoney.com/news/hiccups-to-chinese-imports-of-us-corn-may-worsen--6740.html.

If this is the case, then Mozambique, who export 9% of total exports to China are likely well set up to assist in the plugging of such demand. In addition, their custom could likely fill the abattoir that is currently running at less than 10% capacity (& likely not providing a good ROI at this level).

To top it off, they might use that cash haul from the oil rig / mine sale (can't remember what it was) to pay a dividend if they've got no other use for it. Of course that'd do wonders for the short term price, but it would perhaps be better kept in the safe as a war chest (I'd only use such a divi to buy more!).

Also, they hardly have any debt, so aren't going to get affected by rising interest rates 1 iota.

Anyone see any red flags I've not picked up on?

[swooped] 10/2/2014 11:16

All, I have had a email from the company that states;

In line with the AIM reporting rules the Company is required to produce its half yearly results by 28 February so the Company will issue a full update to the market then

looking forward to it.

[freddie01] 08/2/2014 09:54

Thank you for the mention of "Don't Panic" 0iht.Watched it last night.Very interesting.

[the count of monte_cristo] 07/2/2014 21:53

Will try and check that out...if you have time & feel like it, what were the Professors main points?

I have just completed reading a book called'The End of Food' which also discusses population growth. A very interesting book.

[oiht] 07/2/2014 12:30

Watched this on BBC2 last night "Don't Panic - The Truth About Population". It's available on iplayer and is a fascinating lecture by Prof Hans Rosling, I never dreamt that statistics could be so interesting. It's very relevant to AGTA, in my opinion. Mozambique, and in particular, a subsistence farmer is used as an example.

Well worth watching on it's own merits anyway.

[vyke82] 31/1/2014 19:39

update long overdue

[swooped] 21/1/2014 16:05

hmm share price is a little disconcerting were we not due a trading update? if so it's going to have to be spectacular to get this back to where I think most would like it

[the count of monte_cristo] 15/1/2014 09:25

Unfortunately I think it is going to be like this for most of the year with continued tensions and sporadic acts of minor violence in Moz, until the elections are sorted and things have calmed down. Whether this will result in holding back the AGTA share price by adding in a risk premium, which is arguably in the current price remains to be seen.

[oiht] 14/1/2014 08:04

Courtesy of Niepomucen (iii):

Euan Kay emailed me this morning in response to my last post on iii. Here's the email:

Hi XXXXX

Good morning and compliments of the New year to you. I noticed in your recent post on iii the mention of Vanduzi. ( As usual the press got it wrong ) The incidents mentioned in fact happened at Vunduzi a village close to the former Renamo headquarters at Gorongoza. Vunduzi is about 200kms from Vanduzi and I wish to advise that we have had no security problems at or near any of our farms.

Kind regards


Euan Kay

[cyfran101] 13/1/2014 23:59

Indeed very interesting and good to get a little communication from people on the ground.

Recent reports have trenches dug on the N1, soldiers moving south and dialogue sessions being snubbed however its hard to really get a grip on the scale (sounds minor at present) as the reaction will always be panic after such a long civil war in recent memory.

Hopefully an operations update will show what effect, if any, this has.

[frenchie01680] 13/1/2014 16:16

Interesting correction to violence misconception close to AGTA farms in Mozambique - see iii board, post by Niepomucen.

[dodge city] 12/1/2014 20:56

This company is losing millions, if it hadn't sold its oil interests it would be bust.

[swooped] 12/1/2014 19:47

Particularly interested to know how the beef operation is going, expecting to see a good revenue stream from the 'can't keep up with the demand' outlets, need to reverse this little decline recently and start seeing 3p again

[the count of monte_cristo] 11/1/2014 17:54

Not sure Swooped, must be something in the pipeline though.

[swooped] 10/1/2014 13:08

Anyone know when we are expecting the next operational update, I thought there was one due?

[the count of monte_cristo] 09/1/2014 09:19

Ha ah, nice one SITIAIN :) Thanks for the feedback. Hopefully one day I will be in a position to give back to society.

Interesting to see the recent shareholding announcements in ZAM, maybe one day we will see the same here.

[sitiain] 09/1/2014 05:28

Count..I think you are Prince William in disquise
The farmimg idea is a great one, lets face it with the world population getting higher and higher agri will be become far more important.
Great charity opportunities as well to really change people lives when you are rich enough to retire with your great investments.
good luck

.

[the count of monte_cristo] 06/1/2014 20:22

In my mid 30s...I just sound old as I read extensively, most people my age probaly don't have the time or the inclination :)

[oiht] 06/1/2014 13:22

Misjudged you Count, assumed you were a wizened old fella like me! HNY all.

[the count of monte_cristo] 03/1/2014 11:49

Hi SITAIN,

Thanks for the above link. In your opinion, do you think gaining a formal education in Agriculture would be a good move for a young person today? I am not specifically talking about being a farmer, but rather an agronomist, seed/fertiliser seller, machinery salesman, soft commodity trader, or even jobs in local government or for specific institutions, or even for a company such as the ones mentioned in the above article.

Today it does seem that this is not an area which is looked upon as being interesting or indeed a good career choice, I disagree and think it is, but then I maybe biased. I am considering completing a formal education in Agriculture to round of my education (I already have a degree). You seem a worldly chap and I wanted to ask your opinion, sorry I can't do this off line. Kind regards, ToMC.

An interesting link below;