African Min&Ex Share Discussion Threads

[tees maar khan] 09/4/2012 10:28

I am grateful for all the insights and informative posts that you have provided for the benefit of others on here thank you. I'll type your name into the search feed and catch up on what you've posted.

How am I playing these markets?

Well the idea is to keep calm, and not let the market cycles, sharp sell offs put me off. It looks bearish but am in for the long term, and the whole idea of having exposure to precious metals/gold plays as part of ones portfolio seems wise. Safe haven and all that.

The mining shares have underperformed there hasn't been an alignment with gold bullion, and it feels like these miners are no different to normal retail stocks at times like these. But I'm accumulating shares in CNR whilst I still can before it sling shots north lol I don't try to mix with messages like CNR or so and so should be 15p or £1 it is what it is, and the market decides not predictions pulled out of thin air.

Even on excellent news the price stays stagnant where logic would tell you it should move higher but people are scared of uncertainty and not buying, too many sat on sidelines or thinking of banking profits, perhaps selling at loss. The fundamentals look good, the guy at the helm Mark Childs seems competent and manages risk well. Not really looked at any other companies but they all look oversold.

The market will correct itself and undergo all the cycles. But QE3 and the Federal Reserves monetary policy I try to keep away from all the macro economics its depressing lol I don't really know too much, or understand any of that. I look for the fundamentals of individual companies and follow the news.


TMK

[aleoap] 08/4/2012 16:55

Going back to AME:


Mali making strides toward restoration of order

Good interview with Bristow:

Keeping a cool head in Africa

[aleoap] 08/4/2012 16:42

Hi TMK, I have expressed some views over the past few months on the PGL thread. Most notably this in Jan 12:

Post 803 - I've not really done much trading in 2011, I'm waiting for signs that the current deflationary period is coming to an end. Will we see QE3 by March 2012? This is key imo. If we do then look for a strong H2 performance. My worry is on a technical basis most index charts and especially AIM have a whopping head and shoulders pattern forming from the lows in 2009. If this plays out then we could see under 400 on AIM and other lows across the board. I'll put together a quick chart to show you what I mean. This next 6 months is critical. I want to see over 800 on AIM before committing large funds but we could see another opportunity like in Mar 2009 to pick up unbelievable bargains..with this in mind I am reviewing whether I want to be invested in the stock market at all over the next few months (sadly including CNR).

Followed by this in Feb 12:

Post 820 - Oh by the way, I mentioned some time back that we may be looking at a whopping head and shoulders on the AIM chart (and others) and unless we clear 800 on AIM we could be in trouble. Well we cleared it, and I would be buying certain stocks heavily on any downward correction in the near future. Looks like we are going much higher this year now imo..QE3 anyone?



So today, April 2012, I am sticking by what I said and buying at these levels. The gold sector on LSE is far too cheap here. I can see gold holding the $1600 level, maybe a few days under it but it will snap back up pretty quick imo. Central banks only recently started buying and with continued low interest rates and QE programmes the recent high will be back in view within 12 months if not sooner. I'm expecting a strong gold/silver rally in H2 2012, along with another strong market in equities, with a few sharp corrections as we are seeing this last week or so.

That's not to say political unrest/corruption is making it easy for us 'investors' however as we have seen here with AME, or CEY, HMB another example with the very poor RNS on Thursday after hours.

I've recently, well within the last 7/8 months or so, started to look at the gold sector in LSE differently. Rather than each individual stock and it's merits, I've found it very useful to regular review each stock 'against' it's peers. I regularly see comments like 'CNR should be 12/13p by now'. Well, that may be true in a normal market, however when stocks like OMI are around £30m mcap then CNR has a pretty strong premium for an explorer. Of course it deserves this premium, but you have to be realistic in today's market.

Using my spreadsheet it works as a kind of league table, with stocks moving up or down the 'league' dependant on mcap/EV etc and once they do move, it flashes onto my radar. VGM is an example of this, moving down severely this last few weeks. I've not invested but it's a clear example of how I'm playing this market. It has a very poor sentiment at the moment, and I've not invested just yet. But it's on my radar. I like buying cheap, but cheap can get cheaper of course.

So in answer to your question, I am bullish here and am looking for a strong H2.

How are you playing the current market and what are your views over the longer term? Always interested in others views..

[tees maar khan] 08/4/2012 13:52

aleoap,

I remember the diligent research, and great commentary provided by bonsoir, yourself and, V1d over on the CNR thread back in 2010. What are your views on the secular bull market, and are you bullish on small cap natural resource stocks? A lot of them look oversold.

No stock is forever immune to the effects of a bad market, and AME is no exception. But by the look of things this appears to be a good candidate that could have a nice run from here.


TMK

[aleoap] 07/4/2012 15:30

Good news, military commander stepping down and as I presumed, Traore will be interim president.

'The declaration was welcomed by other African states. Burkina Faso's foreign minister, Djibrill Bassole, who stood beside Sanogo while he read the accord, said the countries bordering Mali had agreed to lift the sanctions.'

So no more sanctions, fuel/diesel no longer a problem. RRS should gap up whilst a few may be able to get AME on the cheap before it moves up.

AME should now, either Tuesday or Wednesday, state that their original drilling campaign will revert back to that originally scheduled, and the use of the RAB rig which is more fuel intensive.

As I've mentioned before I believe the issues in the north will not affect normal operations in the south and south west once sanctions are lifted, where the majority of gold mining is located. Too much income from the gold mines go to the governments coffers and they will not risk losing that.

The north is all about the oil imo..

'Other foreign powers were preparing to assist Ecowas in a military intervention, according to the Observer's source.

"A number of countries have offered assistance, including the US and France. We are also mobilising the forces from the region to make contributions. The United Nations is planning to hold a fundraiser towards the end of the month for financial support."'

AME should be back to 5p/6p relatively quickly.

[aleoap] 05/4/2012 11:29

Economic Hitman reveals shocking truths about the Government

Has the Jackal been implemented here..


Anyway, I'm going a little off topic. No need to focus on the bigger picture, all I want is the military commander to step down now he has done the 'Jackals' job. For whatever reason the powers that be did not want the current president in charge. Whoever now replaces him will be chosen by the powers that be, and exploration, exploitation and exports will continue as normal with the added bonus of western involvement in oil in the northern regions.

RRS will be a superb investment at some point in this cycle. But, RRS can potentially go much lower in the short term. Once borders re-open, RRS is a BUY. AME - on the other hand has little downside here, as further drops will be bought up due to cash levels and negative value of assets.

[aleoap] 05/4/2012 11:13

Suprise, suprise:

'The United States, which had grown increasingly concerned since the collapse of Moamer Kadhafi's Libya scattered weapons across the region, engaged talks with Algeria, the most powerful of Mali's seven neighbours.'

'Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika met General Carter Ham, who heads the US Command for Africa (AFRICOM) in Algiers on Wednesday.'

'Military cooperation and anti-terrorism coordination were also discussed during the talks, attended by several other top officials from both sides, including Washington's top Africa diplomat Johnnie Carson.'

Of course removing the 'threat' from the northern areas is solely for humanitarian purposes, nothing to do with the Algerian state-owned oil company lol

'Both Algeria's national oil company SONATRACH and the Canadian owned Selier Energy say that the vast Taoudeni basin, at Mali's borders with Mauritania and Algeria, shows great potential for major oil and gas discoveries.'

[aleoap] 05/4/2012 09:56

Yes sweepie, but that's not going to re-open the borders. The only news I'm interested in is the current military leader Sanogo stepping down. It's becoming more apparent that the military might well appoint an interim head, with Traore becoming favourite imo. As soon as this happens, Ecowas will lift sanctions. It seems the military command is simply being ignored, as the talks that should have been held today have been postponed, due to all potential attendees declining Sanogo's offer.

[sweepie2] 05/4/2012 09:21

Good news just announced on the BBC, rebels stop fighting as they have seized all of their homeland in Northern Mali

[aleoap] 05/4/2012 08:23

Hi okuta, doubt we will find another one like CNR for a long time but at this price this tiddler seems good value. Of course here the directors are taking approx £300k pa salary all in, whereas MC was taking about £15k pa I believe. And I don't believe directors have anything like a significant stake in this one, unlike CNR. So, I wouldn't put much in here, but with the right results/news it could be a multibagger in quick time.

Management have decent backgrounds, connections and contacts. Working with Newmont and looking to expand into Guinea - Market cap today £3m and cash at hand Sep 2011 was £3.9m. Stands out like a sore thumb this one on my lse gold sector spreadsheet, looking at the cheapest explorers out there you would be paying £2m for AUR (£4m mcap take away £2m cash), £2.5m for GGP (£3.5m mcap take away £1m cash) and £3m for KGLD (£14m mcap take away £11m cash/debt). There's around 15 stocks you can pick up under £10m when taking away cash/debt.

But no other's are effectively 'free'. If AME's cash is around £3m today which I expect, and mcap is £3m then you get everything else for free. Once political stability is restored then to be in line with it's peers it needs to trade between 6-7p (£5m to £6m mcap). So, my view and what I intend to do, buy at 3.5p then sell half at 7p. Free ride for it's drilling programme in the months/years to come.

[sweepie2] 05/4/2012 08:02

Surprised that there hasn't been a reaction, difficult to judge these political events but one thing for sure whoever is in control in the country now and in the future will want their slice and that can't happen until product is out of the ground so I would guess as long as there is some law and order it doesn't matter in the short term, accepting as fact that the operations in the country are well supplied

[okuta] 05/4/2012 07:49

Hi Aleoap,thanks a lot for sharing all your research and information,all interesting reading and will look to get in when funds permit.O/T was very pleased a few years ago when I started reading your posts on the CNR Board and am still in there with a sizeable holding/thanks again and regards/g

[aleoap] 05/4/2012 07:39

Auger Drilling Campaign to Commence

African Mining & Exploration plc (AME), the AIM listed mining company focusing on exploration in West Africa said today that despite difficulties in operating conditions as a result of sanctions being applied by ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) it has decided to commence an Auger drilling campaign on its Karan Exploration permit. The sanctions applied on Monday resulted in the blocking of cash from the West African central bank and the closure of all land borders. This will affect fuel supplies as Mali is totally dependent on imported fuel.

AME Mali has sufficient fuel reserves to allow an Auger drilling campaign to commence at its Farague project. This was part of a RAB and Auger drilling campaign that would have commenced had political changes not brought about the necessity to review the planned work programme. RAB drilling which is more resource intensive will now only commence when political stability has returned. It is envisaged Auger drilling will commence on Friday.

AME will continue to monitor the situation and report back to the market should things change.

[aleoap] 04/4/2012 12:12

Or of course AME sell it if Stellar/Newmont wish to acquire it. Then concentrate on Diatissan, of which I believe is a fantastic prospect. Hope no-one has forgot the following:

'The Diatissan concession exhibits many attributes favourable for the discovery of economic gold deposits. We have already reported that a number of gold in soil anomalies have been identified with peak soil samples returning in excess of 1g/t Au and impressive trench grades also being achieved with peak intersections of 14m at 14.48 g/t; 14m at 43.76 g/t; and 30m at 22.85 g/t.'

[aleoap] 04/4/2012 12:07

Just reviewing some historic RNS's. What was the below all about? (07/02/11)

'Newmont Confidentiality Agreement

AME permitted Newmont to undertake a regional BLEG (Bulk Leach Extractible Gold) sampling programme over the Licence last year. Newmont has reported encouraging results and will provide AME with the data once it has been properly processed. In the interim however, Newmont has entered into a new Confidentiality Agreement to allow Newmont to review all of the Company's historical and new exploration data over the Licence.'

Newmont's only operations in Africa is Ghana, of which Ghana comprise 20% of it's assets. A quick search finds the following though:



'(August 29th, 2011) – Stellar Pacific Ventures Inc. (hereinafter "Stellar", TSX.V: SPX) is pleased to announce that a joint venture agreement has been entered into with Newmont Ventures Limited, a subsidiary of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM) ("Newmont") whereby Newmont and Stellar will jointly participate in the exploration of the Namarana Property in Mali and seek to acquire additional properties within the area.'

And one of their recent RNS:

'The exploration and evaluation of the potential of the property is progressing well. The 2011 program consists mainly in the following:

A BLEG (stream sediments) survey as well as the prospection and satellite photo interpretation of the permit area have been run by Newmont's crew so far. Results will be forwarded as they become available.

Airborne geophysical survey Mag / Radiometry coverage of the entire Namarana property will be executed in November using Newmont system.

Soil geochemistry.

RC Drilling of main targets.

Stellar Pacific is pleased with the way that the evaluation of the property is progressing in Mali. The Airborne Survey will add significantly to the data base and will provide, in association to the BLEG results, valuable targets to follow up.'

It looks like Newmont are very interested in this area. Stellar's Namarana permit is from what I can make out next door to Karan, so Newmont are killing two birds with one stone and performing their dd. They've entered into a JV with Stellar, what's stopping similar happening here? Wonder what a JV announcement with Newmont will do to the share price

[aleoap] 04/4/2012 08:05

A statement is due from the UN Council later today but it seems Thursday is the key date for talks.



'UN Security Council members were hammering out a joint statement on the Mali crisis, with agreement expected later Wednesday on a strong message but without any firm actions proposed.'

'Feeling the bite of the mounting sanctions and pressure from all sides, the soldiers who seized power on March 22 proposed a national meeting on Thursday and dispatched a team to Nigeria for talks on an exit from the growing crisis.'

[aleoap] 03/4/2012 20:03

Doesn't seem to have stopped 'work as normal' for Robex Resources

Robex Resources Gets Go-ahead To Open Gold Mine in War-torn Mali


'Canadian gold miner Robex Resources Inc. (RBX.V) said Tuesday it had received the last go-ahead it needed to open the Nampala mine in Mali, a country plunged into chaos by a recent coup and ongoing civil war.

The Quebec-based company said it received a 30-year production permit Tuesday, the same day that Mali's borders with other west African states closed down. The landlocked country's neighbors are using such moves to force Mali's military out of power.

Once a promising democracy, Mali's government was overthrown March 22, by junior officers furious over the slow provision of arms to fight an insurrection in the country's north.

Nearby miners including AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) and Randgold Resources Ltd. (GOLD) are faced with the challenges of staying operational in a country split by civil war. In an April 1 interview, Rangold's Chief Executive Officer Mark Bristow told Dow Jones Newswires that the company's Mali mines only had enough diesel to continue at full capacity for two weeks.

Rebels, meanwhile, say they now control the entirety of northern Mali, a region larger than France. Most of the country's gold mines are far from that conflict zone, but still dependent on imported fuel--virtually all of Mali's fuel comes from Senegal or Ivory Coast, both countries that have closed their Malian borders. '

[aleoap] 03/4/2012 14:40

Flights are still going ahead in Bamako with the main impact today being drivers rushing to gas stations to fuel up in case of shortages.


Several station owners have stated if the rush for fuel continues they will run dry in days. Ecowas is looking to 'activate' it's 2000/3000 strong troops with France pushing to assist with logistical operations. This now looks almost certain to be activated on Thursday.

This is bad news for the gold producers, who need diesel for their operations. As I mentioned before RRS has two weeks supply. Anglogold, IAMGOLD, RRS etc all will be more concerned now.

I doubt AME will now be looking to start drilling and realistically should wait for the military to step down and borders re-open. They could surprise me and be setting up the rig as we speak however the concern has to be running out of diesel/fuel. Sit back and wait would be my preferred option now, although they don't need to wait to provide the 'detailed operational update' on Guinea etc...

[aleoap] 03/4/2012 12:55

'Negotiations are being held on a presidential statement on Mali which the council could release today, diplomats said.'

'The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) also announced its military force was being placed on immediate standby and they would decide this week how it would be deployed.'

'On the military side, Ouattara said: "We have decided to immediately put in place the ECOWAS standby force, asking the committee of chiefs of staff to meet in Abidjan this week to decide on the method of activating this force. The situation in Mali is extremely serious, it is a blow to democracy and an attack on the territorial integrity of this country. It is not acceptable. A return to constitutional order and territorial integrity must take place as soon as possible."'

[aleoap] 03/4/2012 12:50

The United Nations Security Council is holding an emergency meeting on Mali Tuesday




Former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo told VOA he is confident ECOWAS can resolve the crisis. He says the group should encourage soldiers to return to their barracks, followed by a transition to elections and a return to democracy.

"We have to acknowledge what you may call legitimate complaints of the military, that they were given [a] task without adequate tools to perform the task," Obasanjo said. "I think our leaders having acknowledged that legitimate situation that you found yourself, but the way you've gone about it is not the right way, and that way is not acceptable."