African Min. Share Discussion Threads

[substp] 13/11/2014 14:16

A fair summary as it stands for now....

[tiptv1] 13/11/2014 14:15

What do Zak and Moose have to say about the matter?

[cantrememberthis2] 13/11/2014 13:58

barclays have done a worse case scenario based on no external initiatives and improvements, next..

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 13/11/2014 13:47

So, no adjustments made for recent events - possible blending, European sales, revenue from LOND's use of infrastructure, shared admin costs.

[forwood] 13/11/2014 13:36

FT Market Live, the voice of the establishment and journalistic tendencies to do down rather than up. Can't remember when they ever said 'buy this it's gonna go up'. Their bias more like 'avoid at all costs'. Having said that they may be right wrt to Shandong's hesitancy.

Here's that Barclays table. Hard to know how realistic it is - does ignore any synergies from Lond tie up and is highly fe price sensitive.

[hjfe] 13/11/2014 13:07

Game on now for a blue finish....

[kirk 6] 13/11/2014 12:58

regal went from 10 -55p after timis left LOL

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 13/11/2014 12:51

Andy - thanks for the input.
Bye.

[andy pipkin] 13/11/2014 12:49

Its difficult for me to trust any company where Timis is involved. I got burnt on regal petroleum many years ago thanks to his lies, and it looks like exactly the same has happened here.

Thats not to say that these arent worth buying at these levels, as there are probably many more ups and downs to come, but I wouldnt believe too much of what he says, and I would ignore the halycon days when these shares were up in the stratosphere. They wont return there.

It is remarkable that people like him and other 'entrepeneurs' seem to attract hot money for a while, before the inevitable happens.


Once bitten, twice shy.

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 13/11/2014 12:41

Hi Biche, want to come round and meet us? Your name suggests you like 'exotic' entertainment. Just give us a sign. Bad Breath had a wonderful, though exhausting, time.

[sapper2476] 13/11/2014 12:36

Wow. All out today. Do you sit in the same coffee shop as bad breath.

[kirk 6] 13/11/2014 12:34

Looks about to surge upwards here

[lebiche] 13/11/2014 12:26

More pain here for holders, before the inevitable sub 5p placing.

[mcyi9gl2] 13/11/2014 12:26

FT Markets Live


PM

So African minerals off 3p today at 12p

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Not pretty this, is it?

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Dan's still digging deep into this

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Mind-numbingly complicated

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But read the statement

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PM

it's bleak

BE

(@Outlaw: so Battersea's now in Vauxhall? Super.)

PM

Interesting that they've named Standard Chartered

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Think they were/are also lender to London Mining

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i suspect this is why there was no way to put the two businesses together

PM

Cos it would have consolidated STAN's exposure

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And...

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maybe crystalised the need for a write down

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I'm just speculating

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Emoticon

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But my, for African Minerals, things look bleak

BE

So to summarise ....


Real time stream connected. New messages will appear here the moment they are published.

BE

Shandong doesn't fancy releasing the last $102m of restricted cash

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Can you blame?

BE

Indeed. African sees "reasonable prospects" for alternative funding.

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Note: "reasonable".

BE

Shore Cap -- on no recommendation -- just shakes its head slowly.

BE


we hope this isn’t Timis Corp à la London Mining. Oh dear. It seems that Shandong Iron & Steel Group (African Minerals’ partner at Tonkolili) may be rethinking the wisdom of helping out AMI.

Shandong had previously agreed that AMI could access the US$284m of cash earmarked for Tonkolili’s Phase II expansion for working capital. AMI has to date drawn US$182m, but the parties are now having “discussions” about the “timing of the release” of another US$61m (that had apparently actually approved in October 2014), and the final US$41m.

According to AMI, there is “no certainty on the timing of these releases”. The level of uncertainty is such that facing the pressure of “ongoing operating losses and debt repayments”, AMI is now “progressing negotiations for alternative funding” – to the point that it is even considering a part disposal of its interest in Tonkolili.

AMI believes there are “reasonable prospects” for alternative funding. We can only hope for that this doesn’t mean Timis Corp ending up buying AMI’s interest in Tonkolili a la London Mining’s Marampa. Such a scenario would be a great bargain for Frank Timis but a calamity for AMI shareholders, in our view.


The world's greatest living natural resources entrepreneur. He also does a lot of good work for charity. Known to like a vodka.

BE

And Barclays .....

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... has the following table.

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...

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PM

that requirs a detailed read

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If that's too small to read, let me summarise: they're burning $30m per month

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And have $182m to burn through.

PM

Clock ticking

[jungmana] 13/11/2014 12:23

Forwood - good post. I agree

[hdb] 13/11/2014 12:22

Difficult to read this but does not the board of AMI need the share price closer to 10p to negotiate a better refining deal from the banks ? If SISG thought AMI might go bust they might not want to release more unsecured cash to protect their 10 per cent. So think this is a game of cat and mouse with SISG throwing the gauntlet down to the debtors to blink first ? Meanwhile Timis has the cash to buy back if went into receivership. Something has to give quickly as suspect losing 16m a month right now. So in a strange way are should the true long term holders not want the share price to stay where it is to reinforce the worst case scenario unless the banks can push debt repayments out over the long term future of the project which is 80 years ? Just some off the wall thoughts

[forwood] 13/11/2014 12:15

I'm not so negative here. The short term jump in close and auction yesterday was a shorts closing jump, fuelled by uncertainty. But it is indicative of where the share price will go once funding is in place. Personally think the future for AMI lies in a merger with the remains of Lond. Joint operations is one thing but when you have FT the same person as Chairman of both it would be very hard to be even handed. Either a merger or FT has to decide to relinquish a role.

In the last week we've got used to the idea of AMI being priced at 10p a share rather than 16 - 20p+ it's been for the previous month. Why it fell to 10p is a mystery to me, and can only be explained by II selling and shorts riding it down on fears of another Lond. However FT's purchase of Lond should have been the signal that it wasn't ever going to happen. Capital resources don't appear to be a problem for him, so why should they be a problem for AMI?

I think those who paid 16p will see their money back and more before too long.

[davidlloyd] 13/11/2014 12:14

Aye aye.

DL

[kirk 6] 13/11/2014 12:03

cant - its totally the opposite they were selling yesterday on the offer now buying today on the bid.

For the last time 6000 is the minimum clip size for iceberg orders. I trade in 6000 clips as well not all mine but some are.

[cantrememberthis2] 13/11/2014 11:56

6000 AT bots back on the offer, so their so called buy up yesterday is the offload today

Need hard facts sooner rather than later.

Can we see it stay here - yes close 11.5p

[cyberbub] 13/11/2014 11:40

True Fishy, but the mere fact that there are several options being explored, all of which seem credible, and any one of which could result in a major re-rating, should prompt a decent rise from the short-the-a*se-off-it brigade deciding to close out?NAI

[fishyneck] 13/11/2014 11:32

I don't think people read the RNS properly and simply reacted to the MM's instant mark up thinking it was the game changer...realisation set in overnight that there is more work to be done.

Just my thoughts,

fn.

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 13/11/2014 11:31

Personally I don't think Barclays' analysts know any more than we do about SISG's intentions, but no doubt they are well paid to give their opinions.

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 13/11/2014 11:28

So if the SISG hold up prompted the 20% drop today, what prompted the 55% rise yesterday, in your opinion?