African Battery Metals Share Discussion Threads

[eggbaconandbubble] 29/8/2013 12:17

"Yes Jones!".
I sniff friends of ZZ Top buying in!

[quepassa] 31/5/2013 09:25

28th. May, Shore Capital issue/reiterate SELL RECOMMENDATION.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/5/2013 07:19

Not good.

The story in the USA.



ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[bulltradept] 01/5/2013 11:35

Anecdotal:

Spoke to a guy I know who sells gold down at our local car boot.

He says he's seen a drop off in people buying from him and puts it largely down to those who have wanted to sell have already done it. He'll keep doing it until the end of the summer then he's back to antiques. Silver buys for him steady though.

[quepassa] 30/4/2013 12:22

Problems ahead for this company in my view. Profits warning plus sudden unexpected departure of Chief Exec spells bad news in my view.

In my opinion only, I do not believe that current dividend is tenable. In my view, the dividend will in due course either be reduced or cut in full.

ALL IMO> DYOR.

QP

[buywell2] 27/4/2013 08:16

dell1234 provided this link, thanks



It seems a decent write up of events re the share price V the price of GOLD

Bottom line is that there is MASSIVE competition now re buying/selling GOLD in the high street

The share price of A&B have been heavily geared towards GOLD

HOWEVER

The price of GOLD could still go a lot lower from where it now sits



Sub $1000 for example chartwise is not impossible

Such a drop would take this share to circa 90p or less

Wii Mr market take a -ve or +ve forward view of a GOLD drop re A&B ..... we will see

Thus far it seems the answer is -ve

[cnx] 27/4/2013 04:22

HAT have said previously that they expect 4 years before a new shop becomes fully profitable in the traditional business. there is plenty in the pipeline. long term holder of HAT but looking for an entry in ABM.

[scotches] 26/4/2013 15:08

That's fine QP - but why is this not applying to HAT - yet?

[quepassa] 26/4/2013 14:10

As I mentioned many times before, the ABM strategy in my opinion has been sub-optimal with enormous High Street expansion having been on the agenda - although that will likely be reined in.

My personal view is that a not insignificant amount of recently opened stores will now be barely break-even, if indeed not loss-making judging by the profits warning which was issued after hours last Friday when the CEO departed.

Those recently opened shops were fuelled by the gold boom. Now that the boom is over, the income from those new shops will likely have stalled and may have sent those shops fast into reverse .

Over-expansion on the High Street is going, in my view, to be the real Achilles' heel for ABM and I think that the future may bring some pretty bleak news from the estate of ABM's newer shops.

As I have said before, the High Street is a cruel place with many, many recent victims. And to have been expanding at such a fast pace on the back of an ephemeral boom may or may not prove to have been an ill-advised strategy for ABM.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[hvs] 26/4/2013 13:35

I see sub a £ here

[grahamite2] 26/4/2013 13:20

EZCORP have held their investment longer than I have mine and no doubt they paid less. I have got back considerably more than my total initial investment in dividends, so EZCORP is not under pressure to recoup some of a bad investment through fees - it has been a very good investment.

[crystalblue] 25/4/2013 15:52

Excellent lev Au recovery play. Gold bulls are regrouping as I type. Orchestrated Goldman et al bear trap was engineered using paper EFTs etc. Physical gold demand is massive.

$3000 before the bulls finally bow out, world will continue to print fiat confetti for some time yet.

ABM is risky but I'm fully aboard today. £2 by Xmas is possible.

[bench2] 23/4/2013 10:52

Wow closing in on 100p !!

[acquisitor] 22/4/2013 23:59

The kiss of death was the appointment of Robin Ashton, who was kicked out of Provident Financial and took London Scottish Bank to the grave.

[bench2] 22/4/2013 18:21

All that Glitters . Sadly ABM tacked away from the basic but slow growing business of pawnbroking and has got badly burned . Pawnbroking is the second oldest business after prostitution and is a natural adjunct of bartering . ABM is a very young company in a hurry ( founded in 1983 ) compared to HAT founded in 1897 and has a lot to learn . However there is an interesting base business and at a price the private equity boys who are used to managing large debt levels will come knocking .

[bobsidian] 22/4/2013 18:04

Having reviewed the historic annual reports of ABM from 2005 it is quite startling to see the sheer growth in the gold purchasing side to the extent that it was accounting for just over half the turnover of the business in 2012 whilst contributing around 30% to gross profits. A sustained decline in margins on the gold purchasing side of the business could devastate overall profitability going forward particularly if there are few costs specific to that aspect of the business capable of being cut.

Sensitivity analysis alone suggests a 15% decline in the price of gold would wipe out around half the gross profit from the gold purchasing side which would in turn wipe out half of the pre-tax profits of ABM. Were such a circumstance to persist then the impact alone could see EPS for financial year ended 30 June 2014 decline to around 14p. Little wonder ABM could now be considered a highly geared play on movements in the price of gold.

The events of last week may have been decisively negative for gold. However it is not inconceivable that the orchestrated sell off in gold is a set up for the next leg up in the gold bull market. If so then the next leg up may be characterised less by the consumer sale of gold and more by consumer purchase - a phase more consistent with a bull market moving toward a blow out top. How such a scenario would impact ABM is not clear if its source of gold is on the wane. Would the management of ABM contemplate dabbling directly in the gold market ?

[tysoepr] 22/4/2013 17:47

Not a pretty picture - and boy did this hurt me today. I thought slipping the announcement out after-hours on Friday was pretty damn low too. However;

- I thought their strategy was good re:Gold; if they hadn't made the most of the Gold-buying frenzy then they would probably still be in the same situation now, but without having had the benefit of the historical profits
- I'm not bothered by them calling in the consultants - at least they are looking at new things, and I guess/hope the costs have come in this year and (hopefully) the benefits will come in next year.
- The picture can always get worse of course, but there are several ways this could turn around quickly: The Gold price could improve, there could be a legislative clamp-down on the payday/short term loans market pushing a lot of operators out.

What does bother me is that the shop estate has increased significantly but not the loan-book (unlike HAT).

Is anyone able to shed any light on why that should be? Are the HAT shops better somehow, or their operation better in some other way?

[hvs] 22/4/2013 13:48

lol !!!!!!

Pawn your wives and get some dosh.

[skyracer] 22/4/2013 12:34

A good discussion here. The CEO seems out of his depth, re strategy-making, and the need to employ consultants really proves it. The business environment is far more volatile now and speed and flexibility are vital along with a talented and adaptable CEO. Investing in shares is a bit like that too. If you are caught flat-footed relative to others you are going to pay a heavy price. You have to have some sympathy for Barry because he is not by any means the first CEO to be caught flat-footed nor will he be the last. But I agree with buywell :

buywell2 22 Apr'13 - 11:16 - 585 of 590

GOLD price drop is used as an excuse

I notice that HAT had reduced the number of GoldBar retail mall units from 54 (2011) to 24 (2012). Presumably they have been further reducing in their 2013 first half.

[islam1] 22/4/2013 11:48

and the corporate advisor makes more money than the benefit to the company?

[quepassa] 22/4/2013 11:38

Agreed. They lose a lot of credibility, faith, face and market reputation in my view by sneaking out an after hours pre-weekend RNS like that.

Terribly scruffy corporate behaviour and bad corporate etiquette in my view.

If I were running ABM, I would sack any corporate advisor who had suggested doing such an after-hours RNS.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP