African Battery Metals Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 07/1/2013 15:38

The HAT results today give further evidence about the decline in gold buying volumes and revenues.

The problem is that the industry-wide strategy of expansion is in my view unsustainable and this will hurt all players including ABM.

HAT opened another 26 stores this year. Not good for ABM.

Just too many unknowns and threats about high-street pawn-broking and gold-buying and short -term loans.

Market sentiment is worsening for the sector as a whole in my view.

Personally, I see a greater chance of the share falling (significantly) further, rather than rising irrespective of an attractive yield.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[scotches] 07/1/2013 14:24

I wonder why the share is now almost £1 cheaper than HAT.

Not that long ago there was a vast gap the other way.

I suspect it may be connected to the fortunes of EZCORP which has suffered a sharp share price fall related to declining gold margins and increased regulation. EZCORP was (and still is I assume) a large 30% holder in ABM.

Compare ABM relentless fall with today's HAT report of higher pledge book.

[maiken] 07/1/2013 14:20

Anyone else following this ?
On the face of it ABM looks very cheap even allowing for the decline in gold buying revenues.divi 6.3% historic.A stable core business historically [pawnbroking],p/e below 10 now much lower than historic average.

As far as I can see the price decline has been on the back of little volume.

I'm comfortable with the decline in gold buying.They recognised it was unsustainable.
I'm less comfortable with reinvesting that windfall in new stores.Doubling the no. of stores in 3 yrs represents a major change and a big step into the unknown.
are payday loans taking market share ? i've no idea....

I've dipped back in at £2 and am considering buying more.
There are a number of uncertainties but,as I say,they look very cheap potentially if the new stores do okay.
I'll keep a close eye on these.
any thoughts?

[notanewmember2] 13/11/2012 11:29

~Look even James Bond has to cash in his gold sovereigns.

[eggbaconandbubble] 12/11/2012 08:50

Cash Converters have just come out with a quarterly trading statement, I quote:
'Quarterly Earnings Growth Well Ahead of Expectations'
Well I don't think the expectations were going to be bad in the first place, and although they operate in Australia as well the UK bit has done well too 'Loanbook up 146.1%.......
ABM AGM Friday. Anyone going?

[maiken] 25/9/2012 07:42

I would interpret their confession that eps will decline in 2013 as a 2nd profit warning.
I also note they now talk of new stores trading "in line " with expectations whereas previously [for the last couple of results announcements]they have stated new stores were trading "ahead of "internal expectations.
If anyone finds out new eps forecasts please let us know.

[maiken] 19/9/2012 16:36

well we found out why the share price was weakening !

I confess I sold half my holding on the bounce late last week to £3.
I've liked and held this stock for years .What's changed?
well,for one thing,i don't know where the profits from gold buys are going.
Strip those out [overly conservative I know]and the P/e looks a lot less attractive...mid teens prospective?
a couple of other things concern me.The rapid recent expansion is an unknown.I know the company keep saying trading at new stores exceeds internal expectations but I don't know what their expectations are.
Also the divi is respectable,maybe 4.25% historic assuming 13p,but it's not great and the divi growth has been subdued of late.
I've reached the conclusion that it's currently fairly valued rather than cheap.
I look forward to the results with interest.
Any thoughts?

[eggbaconandbubble] 05/7/2012 09:08

grahamite, My guess is that the RNS was due to the take or exercise of options RNS 21 June.

[eggbaconandbubble] 04/7/2012 11:24

Great time to buy considering yield but.....I've got me wellies full already!
Points taken guys. Thing is if they got taken out at 30, 40 or even 50% from here I would feel short changed. Longish term they must be worth over 4 quid.
I wonder if people use pawnbrokers to finance business when things start to take off again. Well, if they ever do take off!

[aishah] 04/7/2012 10:58

It was only meant to be a thought provoking question. Anyway yield now >5%, gold price rising, low p/e. All fine on the face of it but intrigued by the heavy decline nonetheless!

[grahamite2] 04/7/2012 10:56

Obviously they wouldn't come close to getting the acceptances they need at this price, but it might allow them to make a low offer sound good by calling it a 30% premium to the last closing price or similar.

There has to be some reason for the holding RNS the other day, I suppose.

[eggbaconandbubble] 04/7/2012 10:42

Aishah, I think I need YOU to expand on that!
They won't sell ABM at these levels and they haven't sold any to date otherwise they would have to have declared such.

[aishah] 04/7/2012 09:36

Or EZ Corp selling?

[eggbaconandbubble] 04/7/2012 09:11

OK but only 'a little' as my comment was intended as thought provoking rather than a possible statement of fact - see the '?'. plus I wanted to know if anyone else is watching this BB.
EZ Corp have 3 (out of 8) directors on the board including the EZ Corp. chairman.
They own 29.95% of shares in ABM and from what I can gather their (EZ) share price is climbing in the US.
Some might cry 'Foul!' if they nick it at this lowly price. Shouts of 'They have driven the price down etc.etc.' We would hear. But these are hard nosed, very thick skinned people and I don't suppose they would care one iota what others think.
Apart from that my comment is pure speculation.

NB: Shares can go down as well as up and your investment..................:-)

[grahamite2] 03/7/2012 17:35

Care to expand a little?

[eggbaconandbubble] 03/7/2012 17:33

Bid from EZ Corp?

[eggbaconandbubble] 29/5/2012 12:07

I've had a chunk of these (& HAT) for several years. The price drop is frustrating and equally mystifying. Considering that they should just grow and grow for some time yet before the market becomes satuated, they seem to represent better and better value. looking at the PE ratios, cover, yield etc I feel I should be banking losses on some other shares and transferring the money here. Yields are slowly getting up to those offered by buy-to-lets (I have some of these too) and without all the associated ag. and definitely more potential for capital growth.
I have also noticed a lot of noise in the papers about 'pawn brokers' who take in anthing from a gucci handbag to a classic car. ABM & HAT do appear to be in more traditional forms of pledge which I consider to be much safer.
My guess for the decline is possibly that as the recession continues ABM will have a greater problem selling pledges that are not redeemed.

[grahamite2] 25/5/2012 15:10

bealey, I think it's because it's in the financial sector, which remains very, very much under suspicion in the eyes of everyone, private and institutional investor alike.

In fact it's a profoundly different kettle of fish so this doesn't make sense, but you have to go with the flow.

If Europe does blow up the consequences for financials will be horrific, so I'm in no hurry to buy, but the reality is that major financial dislocation can only be good for a stock like this. I'd look to buy either below £2, or on clear signs of a return of stability.

I have a parcel bought years ago at 95p. One of the best investments of my life.

[bealey] 25/5/2012 14:49

I sold out of this share at 200p in 2008 to help my daughter buy here first home.It was a toss up between this and DGO and in one way regretted selling it especially as it climbed to 400p.
It has now fallen again to a level that catches my interest but have lost touch with it as a company so,could someone please tell me what has changed for it to have fallen so much?
thanks

[worlds lrgest undies] 17/3/2012 13:39

pawnbrokers cant charge more than 17% interest by law in france.

also illegal to take certain cheeses on public transport too.

[thorpematt] 17/3/2012 11:18

SHANKSAJ, thanks for posting that.

It's bizarely typical behaviour of today's society.

In France it is a criminal offence NOT to come to the aid of a fellow citizen who is in need of assistance. In the UK it's a national pass-time.

non-assistance à personne en danger

[shanksaj] 15/3/2012 13:47

A bus crashed into an ABM store in Coventry (?) yesterday, and passers by proceeded to ignore the injured and help themselves to the jewelry. A few of the passengers were injured but not too badly. The faces of some of the probable thieves are caught on camera, and is available on internet.

[thorpematt] 21/2/2012 23:09

I was gonna buy that dip towards the end today, but in the end held off.

I like these, I like the business model and the way it's in tune with today's Britain. I like the tailwind that is present within the employment cycle right now.

BUT
There are 2 negatives in the results.
1. Payday lending.
2. Margins (GP and Nett).

Finally, although the short-term chart appears to say "bottom of trend BUY"; I think if we look at the medium term trend we see a lower entry point is possible if we're patient.



In any event time will tell...