Afren Share Discussion Threads

[leeson31] 18/12/2007 11:37

to the doomers. :-)

[leeson31] 18/12/2007 10:45

Agree exactly Gilty !! low volume..

no worries, am off oot !!

:-)

[saturn5] 18/12/2007 09:42

I think the share price is holding up very well.
The market is volatile at the moment

[giltspur] 18/12/2007 09:40

A little correction with low volume is insignificant.

Possibly due to markets in general rather than anything else.

If volumes were rising significantly into acorrection i'd be out like a rat down a drainpipe.

No worries, hang lose.

[ilancas] 18/12/2007 09:00

p.s. I asked Fingersxxd for a professional opinion on the £1 thread a few days back, but he appears not to be active at the moment.

[ilancas] 18/12/2007 08:57

I'm as bullish about Afren on fundamentals as the next person, but I also look at charts. Even if the wedge breaks down I won't be selling, but would be looking to add at a lower price.

I can't ignore the indicators in front of my nose:
- clear rising wedge that has already failed to break out on the upside, so is now likely to test the lower trend line.
- MACD has formed a lower high and about to dip below zero, a clear sign that momentum is waning.

On the other side, volume has remained stronger on up days that down days, which is bullish.

IF there is a breakdown, my target will be the 200 dma which would convert the wedge back into a parallel rising channel. Hopefully, we will get a breakout to the upside instead which will initiate a parabolic move higher.

[leeson31] 18/12/2007 08:52

I will never forget the 11th Sept 01 Soup !! lol.

Apologies ilancas - ddint mean to offend or be contradictory to your opinion.

And I agree 5bag - I dont think MS will sell off becasue of a wedge..

However, I shall be buying if it hits 96p area...

Susie - i think the word 'collapse' is a bit heavy... :-) I did say to you the other day that 'id wait a tad longer' , rather than buy at 102p...

good luck

[soupdragon55] 18/12/2007 08:47

Fair point ilancas, and good to have some discussion on the matter. Personally I think it depends on any particular news occurent at the time as well.
Without being too picky, Dell in 2001 might not be the best of choices for a chart, firstly there was the dot com crash, then look at the date in the middle of the fall, September 11th 2001. Quite a significant and unpredictable event that day I'm sure you'll agree.

[5bag] 18/12/2007 08:46

Youre argument is well placed and based on generally accepted 'rules', I personally wouldnt go off charts for this stock but some do, with success. I couldnt say what this stock is gonna do from one day to the next, but feel we holders will make a lot of money long term.

[ilancas] 18/12/2007 08:39

I was simply countering the assertion that a rising wedge is bullish. It is not however a reliable chart pattern by any means.

[5bag] 18/12/2007 08:35

Ya have to take the rising wedge in context to what the stock is likely to do based on future expectation too. It would be interesting if you have a share price and rough date for when the wedge 'gets to the point'. What most gurus say is that at 'the point' it is trading in a very tight range, and following the upward price movement, related to buying pressure, it is due a reversal as traders take profit. (in fact it can break positive or negative). But generally Ilancas is correct, It usually flags up a sell signal to traders. However in our case the share price has risen due to both traders, instis and long term PI's buying. I cant see MS trying to offload 31 million shs because a wedge has formed on a chart for a stock which will defy some of the established rules due to the stage of company development. Be lucky all.

[sue999] 18/12/2007 08:32

Collapse after a rising wedge must be the reason MS are buying non-stop.

[leeson31] 18/12/2007 07:40

as per the link you generously provided ilancas.



imho the lines are drawn incorrectly. lol. if you draw the support on the above chart, to the very end, not just a selected area previous to current time, and draw the medium term resistance line, then again, you get imho a bullish chart..

oh well. i never actually refer to stock charts, but just my instinct and experience..

good luck, to me.

:-)

[ilancas] 17/12/2007 22:09

Rising wedges are more often bearish than bullish, unfortunately.

[leeson31] 17/12/2007 20:09

yeah, i'll wait to see if i can buy when the share price is in the circle above...but just above the support line... which technically is about 96p... we'll see.

cheers :-)

[giltspur] 17/12/2007 19:55

Exactly what I was thinking mate.

[leeson31] 17/12/2007 18:17

Gilty - if ya abput mate..

The below chart, do you agree in my thinking we have an ascending bullish triangle ?



Im thinking of doing another T25 trade, I think over 5 weeks, plus a rol over potentialy, that thats enough time to riase the share price from current level to much higher..plus with MS buying Buying at the 100+ level too...
cheers mate..

Leeson

[leeson31] 17/12/2007 17:36

crest data

On Loan as % in Crest 11.29 %

upo from 10.61%

[5bag] 17/12/2007 17:06

Dont care how many MS buy. When they hit 4 quid they can have mine too, :-)

[leeson31] 17/12/2007 17:00

cloak n daggers :-)


MS are buying imho because were very close to production, and know when theyre onto a good thing...

we're benefiting because we were in early and saw the potential..
cheers

[makkaroni] 17/12/2007 16:55

Morgan Stanley`s increasing perhaps a part of a takeover by a unknown Third-Party-Player???
Or they are in the Know of some more stuff.
No one in this times can make financial gifts.

[masoin] 17/12/2007 16:51

Like i mentioned last week.. It was obviuos from lvl2 that the price is being held down for MS to continue to fill their boots.. Today they didnt come out and play.. could this mean an end to their buying?

[leeson31] 17/12/2007 15:56

lol gpmh1.. even i have only 102 thou shs .

i'll catch them up !! teehee