Aew Uk Long Lease Reit Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 10/12/2019 08:11

@ Spec - interesting. I suggested to my wife that she put several £'000 on a Corbyn win or minority as the simplest way to hedge our portfolio. She didn't bite, but I wasn't really joking.

[spectoacc] 10/12/2019 07:36

I very rarely bet - and would be happy to lose this one - but put money on at 8/1 yesterday for Corbyn minority. Tories have the top and the bottom (now the party of the working class) but my entire middle is for Corbyn. Boris isn't going to win.

[skyship] 10/12/2019 07:32

Seeing through the froth - no - a clear Tory majority. Corbyn unelectable; and the centre-right British electorate know that full well.

Still the best line from the campaign:

Vote Tory and we'll be carbon-free by 2050; and Corbyn-free by 2020.

[spectoacc] 10/12/2019 07:03

Corbyn minority govnt, haven't changed my view from the day the GE was called. :(

[skyship] 09/12/2019 18:30

Me too - 70.01, not 70.1 as originally posted...

Specto - a deliberate decision to buy today rather than wait for Friday...

[chucko1] 09/12/2019 17:13

Big selling today. I picked up some more at 70.01p.

[spectoacc] 09/12/2019 16:56

I'd have waited till Friday's GE result ;) But AEWL really is the pick of the bunch IMO. Yes, some concentration risk, but for what is meant to be, should be, and ought to turn out to be long-life, largely RPI or CPI-linked income, it's preposterously cheap IMO. :)

[skyship] 09/12/2019 16:49

Fear not Specto - SKYSHIP is back in at 70.01p today 😊

I missed the last rise, but am happy to have a 2nd bite of the cherry on a 25.5% discount and 7.81% yield.

[spectoacc] 06/12/2019 13:56

Hmm seller still very much around then. Will take more than a Tommo tip to get it moving!

[belgraviaboy] 06/12/2019 10:24

Added a handfull down here at a smidge over 71 - nothings changed

[spectoacc] 06/12/2019 09:56

Ah could be that, which is ironic when one of the criticisms levelled at AEWL is that their overall time to expiry isn't long enough!

ie it's "Long Lease" Reit, the notion they need liquidity or to be able to churn is daft. A recession causing tenants to go bust would of course be different.

[jh27] 06/12/2019 09:50

The gating of the M&G property fund doesn’t help... it highlights the illiquidity in the real estate market. And even though this is a REIT and so, in theory, investors can cut and run at a discount, there is no liquidity in this stock so shareholders are effectively “gated”.

[spectoacc] 06/12/2019 09:21

Utterly friendless again.

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 09:26

XD today, and not a single trade yet, but the buying had continued yesterday. Still some way short of FV IMO.

[vinceelliott] 12/11/2019 13:26

Heartwood Wealth Management owned by a Swedish bank, Handlesbanken(?).

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 16:06

Not sure who Heartwood Wealth Management are, but that's an interesting RNS. Who's the seller?

[spectoacc] 05/11/2019 09:16

Interest disappeared again - thought might have made the print edition of the IC - but nice to see it holding gains. Still - very - cheap - IMO.

[davebowler] 04/11/2019 09:56

LIberum;
1.1% NAV total return for Q3

Mkt Cap £61m | Prem/(disc) -20.3% | Div yield 7.3%

Event

AEW UK Long Lease REIT has announced a Q3 2019 NAV of 94.5p per share, which represents a 0.4% decrease compared to June 2019 and a NAV total return of 1.1% over the quarter. Despite small valuation gains of 0.09p per share, the recurring rent smoothing charge of 0.36p per share meant that the net valuation of the portfolio decreased by 0.27p per share. EPRA EPS for the quarter increased 0.4% from Q2 to 1.35p per share, representing a dividend cover of 98.0% for the quarter. Cash dividend cover was 74% in the quarter.

The weighted average unexpired lease term to first break or expiry for the portfolio is 20.2 years. AEWL has fully drawn its £41m loan facility, resulting in a loan to GAV of 34.3% at 30 September 2019. The weighted average cost of the facility is 3.2%.

Liberum view

The value of AEWL's portfolio remains robust despite the headwinds in the sector. We would expect this to continue given the fact that 92% of rental income is benefiting from growth linked to inflation, with 71% being linked to RPI. RPI is expected to grow at an average of 2.8% over the next three years, which represents a good opportunity for the company to achieve a fully covered dividend. The company is aiming to deliver a fully cash covered dividend by the start of FY 2020.

[spectoacc] 04/11/2019 07:20

Mildly better than I was expecting:

"-- At 30 September 2019, the independent fair valuation of the property portfolio was GBP113.06 million (30 June 2019: GBP112.99 million), an increase over the quarter of GBP0.07 million (0.06%) (quarter to 30 June 2019: increase of GBP1.85 million or 1.66% over prior quarter).

-- Unaudited Net Asset Value ("NAV") decreased 0.35% over the period to GBP76.06 million, 94.482 pence per share (30 June 2019: GBP76.32 million, 94.810 pence per share).

-- Long weighted average unexpired lease term to first break or expiry of 20.2 years and 22.3 years to expiry.

-- As announced in August, the Board is taking steps to reduce the Group's costs with the objective of delivering a fully cash covered dividend with effect from the financial year commencing 1 July 2020. "

[spectoacc] 30/10/2019 15:39

Just the continuing buys I think - but if they continue all week..

Still intrigued to know where all these short-term "breaks and expireys" are.

[chucko1] 30/10/2019 14:36

Vince, it’s very likely to be the plan. A long WAULT is desirable, but that will consist of a large range in order to spread out the reletting risk. You would not want to be in a position of reletting a large fraction of the properties during a soft market.

Is now trading higher again, but still at a substantial discount to NAV. Seller out?

[vinceelliott] 30/10/2019 13:09

I was looking negatively at a number of the 'short' term breaks and expireys which seemed to clash with the target of an 18 year WAULT.
However, it is sensible to have a rolling programme of such interventions rather than have a large spate of such interventions at the same time. I only hope that this is the plan and that we see the short term nature of a number of these leases being replaced with long term leases at the earliest opportunities.

[spectoacc] 28/10/2019 09:20

Solid buys again, but seller still very much in evidence. Isn't going to move anytime soon IMO.