Aew Uk Long Lease Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 07/1/2020 16:46

Lol. Still a ways to go on that SUPP Not Asset Value methinks. All those press reports before Xmas of block sale out of WEIF seem to have come to nought.

(Actually - thinking about it - wonder if a block sale of unlisteds will be sufficient to avoid Link taking the red pen to the SUPP holdings. And wonder what/when the c.10% of SUPP held in WEIF gets dumped, I've yet to see it happen).

Back on topic - has felt for ages like AEWL has a near-forced seller, possibly based on market cap or strategy change, and that that has been holding it back (& will continue to).

On WHR - I'd definitely be selling if I still held :) But I accept that Boris & Hansteen may have made for a step change in industrials valuation.

Wonder if we have to get this uncovered divi year out the way on AEWL first - including the manager change, including no more Meridians coming out the woodwork.

[chucko1] 07/1/2020 16:39

I don’t disagree, but until this hits terra firma, I remain a little risk averse on it I.e. without solid news, I’m happy to take some profits early on. With good news, I might hold for rather more. On WHR - I still have half my original position even at NAV + 7%. PHP is at NAV + 40% darn it, and I sold out 10% ago. Goes to show how pointless the NAV is deemed to be by many (and as you know, I agree - although I cannot defend 40% [well, unless it’s a discount on SUPP!])

[spectoacc] 07/1/2020 13:53

I think it ought to be trading at 90p+. Interest rates aren't going anywhere, inflation might, and rents mostly RPI/CPI-linked. That should give it a stronger valuation than most.

Nothing "High St", and plenty now moved to premiums - WHR etc.

Counting against it - who's the next manager, slightly too small/concentrated, fewer shares over which to spread costs, the Meridian mis-step leading to the uncovered divi this year.

I'm a broken record, but IMO it's a buy at 80p and not a sell below 90p, if not the c.94p NAV.

[chucko1] 07/1/2020 13:45

This is far from my largest holding, but it is if measured relative to its Market Value. I see it as a really good risk/reward. I see this as moving beyond 80p and only then would I look to shed some. Ceteris paribus.

[spectoacc] 07/1/2020 13:38

Slowly slowly catchy monkey.

[skyship] 05/1/2020 16:56

All about the price - Absolutely. Certainly the most important factor for a more short-term investor seeking value. That is the only reason I'm back into RLE; though only a few. Hoping to make a 5%-10% turn, as I did last Spring.

[spectoacc] 05/1/2020 14:21

:) No prob - on on offer price basis, it'd be accurate to say SHED on a premium, based on previous NAV.

SHED are too illiquid really - they're a long-term punt on the management & the sector.

I just find WHR a bit....opportunistic? Not sure that's necessarily a bad thing, but certainly puts me off when at a premium.

AEWL have plenty of faults - the susceptibility to a single bust tenant being one - but all about the price.

[skyship] 05/1/2020 14:13

Specto - mea culpa - posted SHED, meant WHR! Haven't done the stats on SHED - will do so; and will edit above post.

[spectoacc] 05/1/2020 14:09

I don't believe SHED is on a premium atm. Unlike anything with retail in it, SHED's NAV will have risen IMO. Last EPRA NAV was 145.2p.

Also suspect HSTN bid has changed things even more than the Boris majority. For PE to bid 10% more than last NAV for HSTN suggests they think they'll make considerably more. Does that justify c.9% premium on WHR? I doubt it, and sold lower. But as with eg LMP premium, I think the internet is here to stay and I think NAVs for the last mile/industrials will only rise over time. SHED ought to be trading at c.160p IMO (I would, of course, say that :) ).

@chucko1 - fair points re NAV, tho I still benchmark share prices against it. But more a case of working out where the NAVs are going (eg AEWU's small retail holdings will/have drag it lower, vs eg SHED) than dismissing it outright.

Fwiw, if I was choosing quality management, SHED would be top for me. Not certain AEWU (& admittedly by extension, AEWL currently), nor WHR, would feature that highly for me.

[skyship] 05/1/2020 13:51

chucko - agree 100% re management, as I constantly state when posting on RGL.

With WHR at a 7.4% premium; CREI at a 9.8% premium and LMP at an absurd c25% premium; why not hold RGL even up to 120p where they would likely be on a mere 4% premium,; and still on a 6.875% yield?

Personally I also believe their business model (regional offices) to be the best choice.

[chucko1] 03/1/2020 17:11

Yes, the AEWU/L divergence is remarkable. I am taking this opportunity of shedding layers of WHR and AEWU and smaller parts of RGL into the likes of AEWL and RLE on account of their current lack of lovers (well, in size if not in quantity).

SQN and VSL both still appear to be fully able to produce high levels of income (over the medium and long term), so trading the REITs which are now at a premium is really a capital recycling exercise - I still like them but now only have around 60% as they have rarely been at such premia (WHR in particular).

But as some of you may recall, I have no issues at all over these things trading at premia - it’s the security of the rental income which matters. If the valuers see fit to apply high discount rates to that income, this is what provides the opportunity. Some of them are stupid and have no idea what they are doing - some of them are bright and have no idea why they are doing what they are doing - some of them are bright and know what they are doing, but are somewhat bounded by generally accepted valuation methods. There may well be other permutations which involve alcoholic intake, but I have no direct experience of this, only what has been reported to me!

Then there are those who everyone assumes are bright (pinching methodology from the models written by the better Wall St. banks), but also are completely out with the fairies. They just don’t understand where some of the model inputs come from (which tends to be more important in times of market stress).

As I read all these posts on all these REITs, I find it notable how few talk about the quality (or otherwise) of management. Nothing could be more important. Simply saying something is office or retail or whatever is just a part of the story, and not the main one. But the discount rates also pay little regard to this (though, as many CDO investors painfully found out, no one [especially ratings agencies] made good calls on this either).

Given all the above, I would still expect to own certain assets at premia upwards of 20%, though having sold significantly along the way.

[spectoacc] 03/1/2020 15:56

Agreed @chucko1. On everything else I'm watching, the seller (be it Invesco or other) appears to be on pause this week, as you might expect. So some renewed selling wouldn't surprise me.

But as you say - who cares! By far the "cheapest" around, plenty of inflation protection (which methinks is going to become an issue with Trump's deficit spending), fat divi while-u-wait.

Volume of buys suggests a pop-up eventually too. Is about the only one yet to have a Boris bounce (perhaps RLE too, for special seller reasons).

Was thinking what a fair price is on AEWL - 90p+ I'd say. Still a discount, divi will be covered once Meridian rent-free out the way, rents contractually rising each year.

Next point of interest will be who the new manager will be. Interesting to see Alex Short hated at AEWL, adored at AEWU.

Happy new year to you too.

[chucko1] 03/1/2020 15:35

Well, 75.25 bid on these things now.

Happy New Year, Specto!!

Is the seller gone, or just away until Monday? I don’t really care, they’re silly cheap.

[spectoacc] 30/12/2019 15:41

Seemingly even in size. Hope that means the seller done (more likely paused for Xmas!) & that any renewed tipping will push us back nearer NAV. Divi while you wait.

[skyship] 30/12/2019 14:42

Actual quote here 73.3p-74.9p

[spectoacc] 24/12/2019 08:57

Ticks all the boxes - yet to have a proper Boris dcb, largely covered for inflation for the infrastructure splurge, yet to recover from overhang/seller. Big discount, decent yield. Nice to see MMs willing to give a selling price above mid, rather than a buying price barely above bid :)

Edit - should get manager change this year too, tho have little confidence in the Board.

[chucko1] 24/12/2019 08:42

Maybe 73-75p, but long term far higher.

[skyship] 23/12/2019 19:29

Looking at the trades the real share price here could be 73p-75p.

[chucko1] 19/12/2019 15:52

I will wait out the chill of the AEWL winter for as long as it takes with the warm clothing of many of its cousins!

[spectoacc] 19/12/2019 15:08

Get the feeling MMs just having a laugh, 3p spread, selling near the offer, not encouraging any sells with a 70p bid.

[spectoacc] 10/12/2019 14:47

Someone got 69p for selling 15.5k. It has, however, had a little nudge on CityWire, along with EPIC and two others.

[skyship] 10/12/2019 08:40

LOL!....😊

[chucko1] 10/12/2019 08:22

Maybe the best hedge would be to buy deep out of the money puts on YouGov!

[skyship] 10/12/2019 08:22

Having bought back into AEWL I now hold a property portfolio of:

AEWL, AEWU, EPIC, RGL & RLE

Combined average discount of 15.8% and yield of 7.56%

Now just need Boris back into No.10; normal life can be resumed and the economy can prosper...