Addax Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[leeson31] 22/9/2007 18:32

canada listed, huge producer, huge stash of cash of acqu's.... undervalued robbie.

[robbiepaul] 22/9/2007 17:44

What's this?

How the hell have I missed this thread?

What's the story?

RP.

[zengas] 22/9/2007 17:38

Leeson

Outstanding revenues being generated by Addax in comparrison to those figures above for Cairn and Tullow. Absolutely filling their coffers on 140,000+ bopd - which will be great for acquistions and further sustained growth in addition to the $1.6b fund for acquistions.

Market cap £3.04 billion.

Q1 revenues $627m.
Q2 revenues $753m.
Q3 region of $870m (due out 12th Nov).
Q4 possibly $900m+. - which is $3.6b revenues on an annual basis (subject to oil at $70/b+) and we still have discoveries to put on stream. That puts us on a valuation of just 1.7 times revenues. We should be twice that. (Tullows is 7.3)

2007 revenues are possibly $3.1b / £1.55b. Tullows in the region of $1.2b / £600m.

Addax are spending $1.2b on exploration/development etc. (Tullow spend is $380m)

Tullow (mkt cap £4.4 billion) and produce 70,000 boepd - less than half of what Addax produce.

[zengas] 22/9/2007 17:36

No link - sent to me as a client.

[moniclub] 22/9/2007 17:13

Zengas, do you have a link for this interesting Natixis research by any chance?

TIA

[leeson31] 22/9/2007 16:44

think i'll 4get petrel resources, but glad am in addax . hehe

directors in at gbp19.20. bloody good sign..

cheers Zengas

[zengas] 22/9/2007 15:00

Some comment by Natixis 21st September 2007.

Addax hosted an analysts visit to Nigeria last week.

Main points are -

"Addax appears to be well placed to continue its progress in Nigeria".

"There remains significant exploration potential on its key OML-123 licence where 29 prospects prospects have been identified with the potential to yield 180 million bls oil".

"The Group will also be seeking to demonstrate that its deepwater acerage, including the OPL-291 block that is just a few miles from Chevrons 1 billion boe Agbami field, contains significant quantities of oil".

"Elsewhere in the region we expect Addax will be particularly keen to grow its business in Gabon where its output should increase by around 1/3rd to 40k bopd by end next year. Furthermore, the company has identified numerous exploration targets on its three onshore blocks in the country".

"All in all then, Addax appears to represent an interesting investment opportunity".

"It looks to be very good value compared with other UK listed exploration and production companies of a similar size".

"Investors are being asked to pay approximately $20 per barrel of working interest reserves and about $51,000 boe of daily w.i production. Both these figures compare very well with Cairn Energy (29/b and $200,000 per boe) and Tullow Oil ($44/b and $133,000 per boe)".

It doesn't mention it's $1.6b acquistion fund nor does it mention it's intention to seek out other countries of interest such as Libya.
It also doesn't mention Iraq and the giant potential of the Taq Taq field and other acerage under seismic.

On the above basis alone (and no wonder they call it an interesting investment opportunity) and comparable to Tullow/Cairn we are around 40% cheaper - minimum. The November 12th figures for Q3 should be outstanding.

Target price should be £25-£26 now solely on the valuation basis to Cairn/Tullow without any premium for it's continued growth. Recent director buying in Addax - 2/8/2007 at cdn$39.36/£19.20 and cdn$39.76 /£19.50 supports the view that the company is still very cheap.

Incidentally the Daily Mail today says, investors should look at Petrel Resources the only UK listed company doing business in Iraq (They obviosuly haven't spotted Addax who listed in May and have already tested 112,000 bopd from the first 4 of the 6 well programme - 2 more wells yet to test and 45% net to Addax). None of this is factored into Addax share price at all.

Dyor etc.

[zengas] 22/9/2007 15:00

Some comment by Natixis 21st September 2007.

Addax hosted an analysts visit to Nigeria last week.

Main points are -

"Addax appears to be well placed to continue its progress in Nigeria".

"There remains significant exploration potential on its key OML-123 licence where 29 prospects prospects have been identified with the potential to yield 180 million bls oil".

"The Group will also be seeking to demonstrate that its deepwater acerage, including the OPL-291 block that is just a few miles from Chevrons 1 billion boe Agbami field, contains significant quantities of oil".

"Elsewhere in the region we expect Addax will be particularly keen to grow its business in Gabon where its output should increase by around 1/3rd to 40k bopd by end next year. Furthermore, the company has identified numerous exploration targets on its three onshore blocks in the country".

"All in all then, Addax appears to represent an interesting investment opportunity".

"It looks to be very good value compared with other UK listed exploration and production companies of a similar size".

"Investors are being asked to pay approximately $20 per barrel of working interest reserves and about $51,000 boe of daily w.i production. Both these figures compare very well with Cairn Energy (29/b and $200,000 per boe) and Tullow Oil ($44/b and $133,000 per boe)".

It doesn't mention it's $1.6b acquistion fund nor does it mention it's intention to seek out other countries of interest such as Libya.
It also doesn't mention Iraq and the giant potential of the Taq Taq field and other acerage under seismic.

On the above basis alone (and no wonder they call it an interesting investment opportunity) and comparable to Tullow/Cairn we are around 40% cheaper - minimum. The November 12th figures for Q3 should be outstanding.

Target price should be £25-£26 now solely on the valuation basis to Cairn/Tullow without any premium for it's continued growth. Recent director buying in Addax - 2/8/2007 at cdn$39.36/£19.20 and cdn$39.76 /£19.50 supports the view that the company is still very cheap.

Incidentally the Daily Mail today says, investors should look at Petrel Resources the only UK listed company doing business in Iraq (They obviosuly haven't spotted Addax who listed in May and have already tested 112,000 bopd from the first 4 of the 6 well programme - 2 more wells yet to test and 45% net to Addax). None of this is factored into Addax share price at all.

Dyor etc.

[pixi] 21/9/2007 11:48

Oil holding fast at $82 per bbl. The analysts target of $100 per bbl by the end of this year is still on the cards.

[leeson31] 21/9/2007 11:09

nice 33% from here then Zengas :-)

i think ill roll mine over too and settle in nov... looking good

[zengas] 21/9/2007 11:07

Cairn Energy £2.8b - 22,000 boepd. (about £750m cash as a result of Cairn India Float).

Tullow £4.2b - 70,000 boepd. (approx current reserves similar to Addax).

Addax -£3b - exceeding 140,000 bopd. $1.6b available for acquistions + $1.2b on development/exploration spend.
Taq Taq alone next year could be developed to the tune of an additional 100,000 bopd to Addax.

Q1 Revenues = $627m
Q2 Revenues $753m.
Q3 Revenues could be in the region of $870m (12th November).
We just added a further 20k bopd production over previous quarter.

Q4 Revenues should be circa $900m+

I'd expect this to be £26-£27 with November update and same market cap as to where Tullow is presently.

[leeson31] 21/9/2007 10:48

hey, star man !! nice one mate !

[sranmal] 21/9/2007 10:46

See above edited post - but not intra day :-(

Another edit - it is now!

[leeson31] 21/9/2007 10:45

tricky inni't mate :-)

thanks for your help fella.

leeson

[kiwi3] 18/9/2007 22:18

up on canadian market.....should be up first thing in the morning

[leeson31] 18/9/2007 08:50

holding up well here. :-)

[leeson31] 15/9/2007 13:32

ok, thanks scranmal. I think I shall ask Orient on the Rio thread. Cheers.

[leeson31] 15/9/2007 13:32

ok, thanks scranmal. I think I shall ask Orient on the Rio thread. Cheers.

[sranmal] 15/9/2007 12:32

Leeson - I can't seem to find a URL for a daily DJ chart on ADVFN that works. A possible alternative may be to ask PapalPower of one of his threads (or someone who has a load of charts/images on their headers).

[leeson31] 15/9/2007 12:18

Scranmal, would you be able to paste, like you have above, a link for a DOW chart? daily ideally. I can then add it to another thread i have.


Thanks very much.

L

[pixi] 15/9/2007 00:00

Iraq Upstream Development Plans:

Addax 45%: Tak Tak estimated production 100,000-200,000 BOD, Estimated 0.4 - 0.8bn bbls, including Kewa Chirmila.

[pixi] 14/9/2007 21:06

Addax has said total gross production has exceeded 140,000 bpd. This is without any input from Iraq.