Accrol Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 04/9/2017 10:01

Hi guys

Hadn't seen the changes to the XD date, unusual that. Cheers.

[keyno] 04/9/2017 10:00

Read somewhere (IC?) ACRL had to negotiate pricing with supermarkets in view of decline in sterling. Paper is paid for in US$. Could be contributory reason. £ fell yet again this morning.

[shauney2] 04/9/2017 09:53

Not seen any negative news so who knows?Maybe a statement at the AGM later this month.

It actually went ex dividend last week.

[mmc71] 04/9/2017 09:51

CWA1, it went ex div last week.

[cwa1] 04/9/2017 09:33

Morning

Drifted off a bit this morning, no obvious news that I can see.....but, then again, that's often the news you need to worry about!

Anyway, put in an order for some at 125p and was slightly surprised when it was taken. Hopefully not a mistake but I am hopeful for this stock in the medium term XD on 21/9 for 4p.

Anyone heard anything negative(or positive for that matter!?

[martinthebrave] 16/8/2017 10:26

Buys being shown as sells IMO. Including my own!

[shawzie] 15/8/2017 19:37

My reading of trades over the past five working days seems to show about 806,000 shares sold and only a few thousand bought. As the final dividend is 4p, is this indicative of a no confidence vote at this time and a substantial fall in the share price to come?

[haroldthegreat] 13/8/2017 18:30

In the company report they state they have done a deal with lidl in 2016 for their products however accrol does not appear on the rolls there as checked today. I will have to do a product test to see if it is as good as accrol management say. One is always cautious of own brand products as one thinks quality is not as good as brand leaders .our local shopping parade hosts lidl and Sainsbury's with Sainsbury's closing one hour earlier on Sunday. I was recently forced too buy their tomato ketchup rather than Heinz and found it identical but much cheaper. They have an advertising campaign showing one item from marks costing the same as 6-7 from them so it is no wonder they are picking up market share.I.e one marks steak costing the same as their steak along with everything else u need for a BBQ.

[discodave4] 13/8/2017 14:43

Thanks TexasPete - Looks like their fx hedging helped to sustain their gross margin and mitigate increased costs associated with additional headcount, but unless sterling strengthens (pulp is traded in US$) or customers increase retail prices then it doesn't sound like they will be able to maintain margins.Whilst revenue increased 14% their costs/expenses are outpacing growth in revenue, thus their operating profit reduced 12% and operating profit margin has reduced c 2%.Still a sound business but may just sit on my hands a while longer with this one.DD

[mfhmfh] 10/8/2017 17:10

positive write-up in today's Shares magazine.

[cheshire man] 10/8/2017 08:28

10 Jul 17 Liberum Capital Buy 140.00 - 200.00 Initiates/Starts

[texaspete2] 09/8/2017 21:51

I had a look at the company report that was posted on their website. The outlook on page 22 refers to a 30% increase in pulp prices and slow price inflation. If I understand this correctly then 30% will have quite an impact on margins. 30% wasn't mentioned in the results released in July, but they did elude to forward cover running out and the hope price increases can be passed on which is clearly not going too well. Any thoughts?

[haroldthegreat] 09/8/2017 13:10

One will also have to look at sheets per roll to see the value to the consumer. A

[haroldthegreat] 09/8/2017 12:55

Interesting a lot of own brands are putting made by accrol on them. Previously had terms like made in UK for or had just an address. Picking up the low priced retailers will bring volume sales but they will want low prices and might go elsewhere to get lower prices.
I haven't yet purchased any of the product but will do so and compare with the 3ply quilted I use at the moment .
I wonder if they supply the same quality product to all the low price retailers.

[grabster] 09/8/2017 07:57

Be aware that the XD date for the imminent dividend has been brought forward to Aug 31. Some notification websites will not show this amendment.

[discodave4] 03/8/2017 09:16

Thanks shawzie.My point, but complete guess tbh, is that the intangibles increased significantly following the buyout, so why? and more likely to be nothing that truly reflects the current operations, thus would ignore it as a means of trying to put a fair value on the share price.DD

[shawzie] 01/8/2017 23:32

DD
I apologise for using the word Creditors. I was not referring to Trade Creditors only but to the Total Liabilities of the Company stated as £50m.

Intangible Assets detailed in note 11 of the Accounts pages 38 and 39 shows significant Goodwill and Customer Lists. I take it that the Customer Lists are amortised over 10 years as mentioned on page 25 of the Accounts.

[discodave4] 31/7/2017 21:00

shawzieThanks for you're feedback.Just a query in terms of their intangible assets on the balance sheet, particularly as you have determined that 120p is fair value based on NTAV of 22p.Prior to the private equity / management buyout on 14th July 2014, the value of the intangible assets for the prior FY was £4.2m, which was about 20% of their fixed assets. After the buyout the intangible assets increased to £33.8m for FY15, which is about 60% of the fixed assets. The intangibles mainly include goodwill and customer relationships which also includes goods awaiting dispatch at the date of acquisition on the 14th July 2014, this is being amortised over a ten year period - so is the actual value of intangibles more likely to be c £11m (I.e 20% of fixed assets). Complete finger in the air to be honest as not an accountant, but IMO I would not value this company based on its net tangible asset value (NAV is 54p).IMHO based on earnings and growth this seems fairly cheap to me, hence on my watchlist!.RegardsDDps where do you get creditors £50m?

[shawzie] 31/7/2017 15:52

DiscoDave4
I invested at IPO, sold at roughly 40% gain, received interim dividend, reinvested with buy price of 132p and final dividend to come.
This investment has given me a good capital gain and dividend of 6p as promised at IPO.
However, at current share price of say 140p the yield is now just over 4% and even with a progressive dividend policy, it may be a number of years before a 6% yield is achieved.
My concerns are ; dividend cover is only 1.5 : Intangibles of £29m are too large a part of the Company value : Creditors of £50m are high and I do not see how long it will take to reduce these items in the Balance Sheet.
The share price of say 140p seems to me to be high compared to NTAV of around 22p and so I think that 120p would be a better valuation.
Of course like most investors I get some things right and some things wrong.

[discodave4] 31/7/2017 14:12

ShawzieWhy do you think this will fall to 120p?Dividend is a given, 120 is not IMO.DDps not holding yet.

[shauney2] 31/7/2017 12:34

Decisions decisions shawzie.
For me its just bouncing off support now and after the recent positive results i'm more inclined to add.

[grabster] 27/7/2017 10:42

Cheshire Man -- is this enough of a dip? Or more than just a dip?

Needs to bounce up from 138 or thereabouts to keep me happy.

[glawsiain] 21/7/2017 11:31

Simon Thompson on investor's chronicle wrote, in answer to a reader comment the other day, that "I am publishing an update on Accrol on Monday 24 July."

Hard to see there being any bad news to deliver, except a possible reduction on their current margin of 28%.

Also, remember a 4p dividend is paid to those on register in September.

[shauney2] 20/7/2017 09:21

Given as a buy in Shares Magazine Great Ideas