Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Aa Plc LSE:AA. London Ordinary Share GB00BMSKPJ95 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.80 2.76% 29.80 1,047,022 16:35:16
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
29.75 29.95 29.90 29.00 29.50
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Retailers 995.00 107.00 14.10 2.1 185
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:27:00 O 17,461 29.562 GBX

Aa (AA.) Latest News (9)

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Aa Takeover Rumours

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Date Time Title Posts
01/10/202017:26*** AA ***9,630
26/8/202014:35AA PLC Full Year Results 03.04.19 Preview29

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Aa (AA.) Most Recent Trades

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Aa (AA.) Top Chat Posts

Aa Daily Update: Aa Plc is listed in the General Retailers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AA.. The last closing price for Aa was 29p.
Aa Plc has a 4 week average price of 27p and a 12 week average price of 22p.
The 1 year high share price is 61.65p while the 1 year low share price is currently 13.52p.
There are currently 620,235,307 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,837,799 shares. The market capitalisation of Aa Plc is £184,830,121.49.
wiseman1967: Simon - if you asked a bunch of large private equity houses if they would like to buy the AA for 9.36x LTM ebitda in today's market I think you would get a bunch of resounding yeses. The share price is this situation is what a GCSE maths teacher might call the dependent variable. The current share price is of no consequence to the bidders. They will be talking about ebitda, ebitda multiples, net debt and any break costs to refinance the debt. The bid share price falls out of the calculation. People can waste their days here talking about the current share price but when less than £200k of shares have traded hands today it is irrelevant. A bid at over 3x the current share price is entirely possible it equates to a 19% premium on current EV.
amran01: Even not much trading today. 146k worth. The volumes will remain low until an offer comes. The share price will remain static. The extension is priced in. Lack of news on refinancing will not help the share price ABC will need to buy off PI's as the II's are not selling out. Limited free float.
paulof2: My prediction for tomorrow.. - Results are good, at least in line with last year on ebitda basis - No real update on takeover just a lot more vagueness - Share price tanks due to above point because people are idiots - End up with share price lower than we were pre bid speculation even though we now know a lot more about business holding up through covid - Lots of arguments and I told you so’s on this forum - Lots of topping of the cheap prices by the non idiots
wiseman1967: Csm - can you please explain your logic behind this? Is it based on the current share price (where volume so far today equates to 200,000 gbp)? A 40p price, assuming decent H1 results giving LTM ebitda of 360m gbp equates to 8x ebitda - one day after WMH receives an offer equating to 12.7x ebitda. In my view in order of likelihood we have:1. Bid above 75p2. No bid3. Further extension4. Bid around 40p - I cant see the board or major shareholders accepting this. If it did happen it would get blown out if the water by an interloper within the 30 day period.Your thinking may be the reason why the share price is 30p - a binary outcome of a bid at 40p or no bid leading to a slide to 20p
wiseman1967: John - the current share price is not relevant. It is struck by daily volume of less than 1% of total shares which seems to be (sadly) uninformed and panicky private investors selling out to a few institutions willing to increase their stake/average down prices (Albert Bridge,Dimension and apparently me). The private investors tend to think takeovers are driven by share prices and 35% premia to undisturbed share prices. Actually, PE houses focus on EV/ebitda, and the market cap of the AA is only 8% of EV. So a 15/16% premium on the enterprise value would roughly treble the share price. Also institutions (unlike PIs) are not wedded to entry prices, they are important but they will also have a view on fair value. Klesch will fight his corner but he is not irrational.
mart2020: If bidders drop out the share price will fall, but longer term I still like AA. If they get some reasonable growth in profit, driven by insurance, that gives earnings of £125m say then £150m year after, then without paying dividends, that additional cash can reduce the size of the new bond required in 2 years time, which will then add £50m from less interest costs, suddenly we are £200m in earnings & growing, with a £300m less debt then too, the longer term share price will be a different prospect completely. We can do the math, the earnings per share could be 30-35p, plus P/E ratio will increase many fold in a such a senario, the 2 year price will be £2-£3 a share then in more confident post covid market. I'd happily take £3 a share in 2 years time!! I'm sure I'm not alone. However, for sanity sake, Id take 70p now lol!
minerve 2: Wiseman1967 28 Aug '20 - 12:58 - 6989 of 7011 "Minerve - do I understand what you are saying correctly? You would rather buy the AA after a bid (let’s say 100p) when the share price is say 98p to collect the 2p differential than to buy at 32p today? Let’s assume if there is no bid or the bid collapses (force majeure on a stock market crash) the share price settles back at 20p. Your strategy has upside of 2p and downside of 78p whilst mine has upside of 68p and downside of 12p. Really?" There are lots of assumptions in your AA scenario but yes that is what I am saying. This is a typical Buffett arbitrage play and is what helped him outperform in falling or stagnating markets. I learned this straight from his teachings. First of all we do not know what the offer price is, the timing, who it is made by and the conditions of the offer. Your mistake is looking at risk purely from the quantitative angle. Yes, when the bid comes through there could be great asymmetry between what you gain and what you stand to lose (with Buffett's method of arbitrage) but you are executing an arbitrage trade on an event which is almost certain (post bid). You, on the other hand, are speculating that an event is going to happen that yet hasn't happened. You are also speculating that the bid price will be significantly higher than the current price. Counter-intuitively, there is more risk in your trade than there is in mine. Don't forget, to be a successful investor, you need an investment thesis that can be repeated many times over time with little risk to your capital. It also needs to work in markets that are not central bank funded/driven on momentum but rather on sensible fundamentals. Most idiots on these threads (I'm not infering you are by-the-way) have only been investors riding the QE/free money horse. Same goes for PE houses. Watch the rats run and squirm when interest rates return to 'normal' - if they ever do. 🙄
wiseman1967: I disagree with this talk of a rights issue at a price above the current share price. In order to get the issue away it needs to be at a discount to the current share price - otherwise why would shareholders take up their rights? If the AA wants to refinance they may have to drop the leverage by half a turn of ebitda. Given ebitda is 350m gbp they have to raise 175m gbp or 28.2p per share. That is a discount of more than 25% to today's price and so is a viable option - and so can be used against the PE bidders, but the fact that there are four of them should be enough for them to sharpen their pencils.
wiseman1967: The share price will probably trade in a 35-40p range until there is a bid/not. The PE houses will be indifferent about the level of the share price - they will have a price in mind and will be wary of coming in too low against what is currently 3 other bidders. Don't spend the day tracking the share price - you will go blind. Best to just watch for AA RNS announcements or to buy around 35p and sell around 39p - a 10% daily swing is worth having.
wiseman1967: Hi Simon - I don't believe that market makers can really manipulate prices, though the principals (either buyers or sellers) can try to. A bidder could always have a friendly investment bank buy up some shares ahead of a bid and then sell them to depress the base price before an announced bid and increase their apparent premium. However, in this case, when the equity only represents about 6% of EV and the share price is so volatile I don't believe the usual premia that Kaos talks about are relevant. This is not a normal capital structure, the bidders will value the whole business on an EV/ebitda basis and the share price will fall out as a result ( a sideshow if you like). We are focussed on the share price because it is what we can buy and sell - but in reality it is more of an at the money call option.
Aa share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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