Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 20/3/2020 10:28

and some more

[qs99] 20/3/2020 10:24

still going though, may hit the £1.20/30 sooner ? DYOR

[bookbroker] 20/3/2020 09:31

I wouldn’t hold your breathe about holidays at the end of the year, this virus may still be about, and if you have not had it by then I think it would be pretty rash and downright criminal to go away, don’t expect to get travel insurance if you suffer it, it’s likely we will be in recession by then, and is the Govt. in a position to continue supporting each consumer, likely not. See Hays Travel closed y’day for no specific reason, is that because of a collapse in demand?

[qs99] 20/3/2020 09:20

interesting, not looked yet.....will do so!!

[rawnsley] 20/3/2020 09:19

It's worth noting that the prices for package holidays towards the end of the year are increasing, as people expect a surge in demand in Winter to catch up on lost summer holidays, so some of this loss in FX could bounce back.

The business looks safe, and if you drop FX by 75% for the year, we are loss-making, but not by much.

Of course other areas will struggle if we go into lockdown, so we are looking at a substantial loss, but one that can be managed with 10m+ in the bank.

This year is a right off, as it is for 90% of businesses, but it all depends when the market starts positioning for 2021 performance.

[qs99] 20/3/2020 09:15

Maybe market is telling us it is oversold? DYOR let's see if it gets back to around £1.20-30ish....

[qs99] 20/3/2020 08:46

Morning mate, thanks for the thoughts.

Pawnbroking should thrive no in this environment? Forex sales don't forget many will already have bought their forex, but yes that will get hammered if no summer holidays, but that will come back as the world will carry on IMO.....

yes I would say divi has to go in majority of stocks, including RFX, but it has cash, facilities and IMO should be able to ride this out.....

one for the brave, but could see this trending back to £1.30-40ish if the market, as it does, starts to look ahead 6 months.....what is already priced in and how have they updated their brokers etc? That is key as many instis will love the opportunity to buy the dips and outperform....

lets see

good weekend mate

[superiorshares] 19/3/2020 19:26

QS99. I am not in this stock but will be in due course.
Think about it.
Forex is s gonner for the foreseeable.
Jewellery sales are bound to tumble, as have clothes and luxury goods.
The store in the airport I was reading about, will be a complete loss.
Footfall through the stores will drop dramatically.
The board I understand is conservative. As they will not be able to give guidance for at least the next year, they are bound to be prudent and cut the future dividend ?.
It's early days as far as the economic disaster that will be the aftermath of Corona.
50p and below is quite possible within the next ,3 months.
Of course if you think otherwise ?. Get your money in, you could make a fortune ???

[qs99] 19/3/2020 08:25

Not after that update I am sure. the reaction was too positive. DYOR

[superiorshares] 19/3/2020 07:55

Will test those lows again, and possibly fall further.

[qs99] 18/3/2020 16:22

And there is the blue. May see north of a quid tomorrow as market can now price in the "Known" element? Well done any who bought at the -20p stage, must admit I was sceptical, but hey, looks like market are still fans!!

DYOR

[qs99] 18/3/2020 15:38

Here comes the blue.

[qs99] 18/3/2020 15:35

Maybe this should be OK, reduced store openings to conserve cash, plenty of "firepower" to see it through a few months on the zero forex front, other trading maybe could make up some of the shortfall, but underlying business is fine.

on that basis and given market was -20p earlier today, now heading into positive territory, perhaps this could move back above £1?

Any views on that? I accept this provided more comfort than I initially thought?

DYOR

[qs99] 18/3/2020 15:33

OK fair enough, I was wrong, looks like market are somewhat "happier" with the clarity.....DYOR

[egrid1] 18/3/2020 13:12

The interesting point is that the RNS states that " it has traded well during the year ending 31 March 2020 ("FY 2020") and confirms that it anticipates reporting FY 2020 profit before tax in line with the guidance provided in the Group's Trading Update dated 8 January 2020."
Whilst not being able to give future guidance, there is some immediate (and future) guidance in that statement... the year end is 31 March, so we have not yet quite got there.
In other words, whatever impact there has been so far, has been minor. Now it is true to say that the effects have been compounding. It is also true to say (from comment that Simon Thompson has made in IC in the past), that the business is skewed towards the first half - so April - Sept.
Currency is a large contributor to profits. I don't know what the marginal profit is on a transaction, but assume that it is quite larger. So the profits will be highly sensitive to a downturn in FX.
Gross profit for full year 19 was £11m from FX, a third of total GP. PBT for ful year 19 was £6.7m for the company.

[muzmanoz] 18/3/2020 13:05

I'm glad there was an announcement. £10m in cash and £10m draw down seems a good buffer. Year end in two weeks so more information beginning of April.

No doubt they will be cost cutting and contingency planning as much as possible but there are too many unknowables at the moment. How do you judge how many people will come to your shops to pawn, buy jewelry or change money.

H1 2020 (end of september) excluding FX saw gross profit of £12.1m. Administrative expenses in total were £14m.

Gold has moved a fair bit since then.

[qs99] 18/3/2020 12:22

so c.£20m market cap and RNS says c.£10m cash and c.£10m facility. How much will no forex purchases for say 4 months cost them? Surely it should only push them to break even on much reduced revenues? Why should it be a heavily loss making area if from existing stores? COuld uptick from PB / Gold / Jewellery make up for it?

All too vague and RNS to be comfortable IMO and surprised it hasn't sunk back more. They could have made some estimates and given more of a view on 2020 IMO....

DYOR

[peter27] 18/3/2020 12:21

Rns provides what reassurance they can.

[swallowsflysouth] 18/3/2020 09:02

Just like the supermarket, panic, panic.

Sitting on hands to everything calms down.

[lammylover] 18/3/2020 09:01

MMs have been deliberately driving this down, day after day on low volume. 10% down today on open with no shares even sold yet. They are just adding to fear and panic selling. Crazy price at 71p buy / 66p sell

[primarch1] 18/3/2020 08:40

Such a bargain now another point if people are not working then pawning goods will surely increase this will be fine just frustrating trying to time the entry

[muzmanoz] 18/3/2020 08:36

Year end in two weeks. Some feedback from the company would be useful.

[tudes100] 18/3/2020 00:15

At HY results in Dec they had £12.3m cash on the b/sheet so despite the short term hit to the fx business and a downturn in shopper traffic they are well positioned to weather the storm. Excellent management team imo as well so suspect they'll be looking at other opps in short term to cover financial impact. I'm biased as I still hold & haven't been buying yet but at some point in next few mths expect to be buying heavily again. if you have a bit of patience and are prepared to hold for a few yrs I suspect you'll do very well.

[vanilla_face] 17/3/2020 23:21

Only one thing matters right now, look at the balance sheet, they will tell you if the business can survive this.