Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[lammylover] 03/3/2020 16:02

True! Madness of the markets and all that....

[egrid1] 03/3/2020 15:51

Yes, I agree, I had 220 in mind this morning, but decided to bag the 11% gain, at 200 and wait.
There are plenty of fish in the sea. There is an opportunity cost of holding a share that is treading water. It may well rise, but it could just as easily fall back... as it has done a few pence since I sold. That is not to say that the fall will be meaningful and will continue - who knows.
All I do know is the market is volatile. You can sit it out, go with the ebb and flow, hope to get back to the starting position, or you can try to make a profit in the meantime.
Have you heard of "Mr Market"? He is very irrational at the moment, and prone to huge gyrations in the prices he offers.

[lammylover] 03/3/2020 15:39

Each to their own and all that - but I can easily see one mention of RFX by Simon Thompson etc. who remark how cheap it is at 200p, for it to push back to 220/230p. Probably going to take a bit longer to get to 260p again, with results / CV hysteria in the rear view mirror!

[egrid1] 03/3/2020 14:35

I think the link you want is the one I gave previously:


Indeed the figures do not paint the picture that is currently being painted in the media. This is what I argued Friday, when I felt we had reached peak hysteria - but I think there must be more expected from the Government. Otherwise, they would not be playing this up so much.

I think we should ignore the figures for China - they are unreliable. But focus on the figures outside of China.


I have just sold at 200, having purchased last Friday. I am simply trading the volatility at the moment.

This is a good company to hold longer term, but if the tide goes out on the market, all boats will fall. We have had two good days, I think there may be a couple more, but by the end of the week the number of cases may be picking up, and the negativity will return.

[lammylover] 03/3/2020 14:24

Have a look at the website www.coronavirusworldometers.info - You might be surprised at the slow down in new rates (particularly in China) and in rest of world. Also the number of new death rates. The media hype on this virus currently is way over the top compared to the statistics.
Perhaps they just like to see more advertising space / frighten their readership (clickbait)

[yump] 03/3/2020 13:05

All depends if you’re a trader or investor. If the latter then there will be a valuation thats worth buying around, assuming you’ve decided the business is investable. Can’t guess the bottom, so need a value area.

[scobak] 03/3/2020 12:54

Wait for the first case to occur in New York and watch the panic.
It can happen and most likely will.
Keep some cash by just in case.

[qs99] 03/3/2020 11:18

good post mate. Let's see how it all unfolds

[qs99] 03/3/2020 10:17

interesting call sphere. I am not sure it has wholly "hit" UK or Europe yet, this week may be telling.

If people are not travelling and evidence suggests that is the case, then this bounce on the back of the director purchases may be short lived. I'm staying on sidelines, outside of my gold stocks for the time being until one can work out whether there is more pain to come or not...

DYOR etc

[sphere25] 03/3/2020 09:00

Longed a few here. Stock has been clobbered and grossly oversold in the short term. Wider market bouncing abit and plenty of oversold short term bounce plays about (also picked up TMG, VTU, RCH, RWI, CIR).

Hard to call the bottom on the wider markets, but this virus is more about human tragedy than affecting the medium-longer term trajectory of companies. How gloomy are you? Let's be gloomy and anticipate a years worth of earnings being written off and a recession (whattttt?!!!!???), I'd still expect companies which have been clobbered down to low ratings to trade higher than where they are today.

It's not a structural issue and the death rates have been stated as not being a million miles off a severe flu. Plenty of gyrations in the short term of course, but looking further out, the market rallies with individual stocks rallying even on weak statements as the market looks beyond the virus imo.

[yump] 02/3/2020 17:39

Noticeable that there are clusters of director buys in quite a few companies.

This whole situation is not helped at all by the disgusting 'excited' behaviour of the media in reporting.

For instance, over the weekend the BBC breakfast had a map of the world with vast areas of many countries coloured in red. That's a disgrace. Made it look as if the countries are rife with the virus.

A few dots would have done.

Its also very noticeable that some apologies for humans are exaggerating the problem on these boards, in the hope of profiting.

It would be ironic and very satisfying if they caught it and fell very ill.

[lammylover] 02/3/2020 16:11

CEO Peter Kenyan buys £23k shares in Ramsdens at £1.80 for his SIPP - well done!

[lammylover] 28/2/2020 13:42

Flip side of this is that gold price is up and should CV drive UK economy into recession, then pawnbrokers will be in demand.
I don't see the bulk of UK holiday makers not booking annual trip abroad...

[egrid1] 28/2/2020 13:00

Lammylover - the largest contribution to gross profit (more than 30%) is foreign currency exchange dealing.
The concern is that if people are not going on holiday, they will not be buying foreign currency.
However, that said, having considered it, and looked at what is happening with the coronavirus, I am hopeful that there will be many holiday bargains to be had. The tour operators may be impacted, and overseas hoteliers - both of whom may need to drop prices to fill the beds, but people will still buy their currency to go with.

[lammylover] 28/2/2020 12:41

You can buy at 190p now. This is being played by the market makers - global CV sell off fear. What's this got to do with a small chain of pawnbrokers in the UK? Daft.
H1 pretax profit £6.2m, trade update 8/1/20 "strong trading over Xmas, profit (H2) to be comfortably ahead of expectations. Cash £12.3m. Paid 7.2p/share dividend last year, what's not to like!!! LOL

[lucifer100] 28/2/2020 11:29

Last time I looked price was 170 - this is crazy ! I thought it was good value at 239 5 weeks ago. Hold

[egrid1] 28/2/2020 11:27

I have bought back in.
Feel it is a bit risky, with the weekend possibly bringing more news, but looking at the charts, it seems to me that the figures are starting to fall for current active coronavirus cases.

Peak active cases happened on 17th Feb (58,747) and have been falling steadily since.
Take a look at the first box on the page I have linked to and click the "show graph" option.
Assuming a 14-day incubation, there is still a possibility that the numbers might start climbing again over the weekend, hence my reticence. But trying to time a purchase exactly risks losing out. The markets could turn very quickly.
If you look at the box below, on the logarithmic scale it is flatlining now, the growth in cases is really not there. New cases are petering out. Perhaps we are just becoming a little hysteric because it is now reaching outside of China, and every single new case is being announced, wherever it is in the world.
I have a feeling that we have reached peak hysteria today, but that is just a hunch and personal opinion.
My assumption is that most people do not buy currency until close to their holiday. There is likely to be some great holiday deals coming onto the market, and so if this is going to fizzle out, the foreign currency sales may not be impacted by more than a couple of per cent, and that simply to reflect the reduced number of last-minute holidays being booked now.
So, fingers crossed that there is no uptick in the rate of cases.
But I now own 25% more of Ramsdens than I did a few days ago when I was stopped out, for the same monetary investment.

[lammylover] 28/2/2020 11:09

Gutted that price has dropped back from 260p to 175p on no news. Nothing! Apart from a few holiday makers not travelling abroad and not buying currency at Ramsdens due to CV, this share price makes no sense whatsoever! So have bought some more at £1.745.
I noticed yesterday that someone bought 90,000 shares towards end of day; but Market makers didn't disclose till after hours. Keep it low, scare PIs out of their shares and allow funds / professional investors to buy big at rock bottom prices.

[rawnsley] 28/2/2020 10:17

I bought back in. I sold out at 190, before the recent rise to 240p, after holding for 2 years. That has grated at my soul I can tell you that!

Happy to be back in, albeit with a potebtially supressed 2020, however a great business that I am sure can weather the storm.

[qs99] 28/2/2020 10:11

Yes, watching and waiting....as you say, forex side may take a hit and gold won't IMO make up the difference....any signs of CoronV slowing or markets looking ahead of that, and I would buy for recovery. May have IMO further to fall at the mo tho...DYOR

[tomv33] 27/2/2020 10:12

I got in this morning...

[yump] 26/2/2020 23:43

Spob

You’ve missed the point. We can all do what we can to keep the planet together whether climare is cycling, manmade or whatever.

It does depend on being willing to decide what is right and wrong as a human though.

Go look at earthrise and then decide to just carry on regardless.

[lucifer100] 26/2/2020 18:33

So the consensus is to sit tight on this one-I was beginning to think I’d missed something on wires this morning 😁