Riverfort Global Opportu... Share Discussion Threads

[pomp circumstance] 22/4/2005 08:04

early pop tday too!

[pomp circumstance] 21/4/2005 17:18

some late interest!!!

[ltinvestor] 21/4/2005 11:27

topguns
so you will NEVER EVER own a share in 2ERGO!!!!

[pomp circumstance] 21/4/2005 11:12

you can always hope for a share split i spose!!! LOL!!!

[pomp circumstance] 21/4/2005 10:40

NUMIS update research note after the last trading update increased their PBT forecasts
from 1.2 to 1.3m which gives a PE of 36.8 for FY to AUG05
from 2.06 to 2.1m (PE24.5) for FY to Aug06

I think these will be about right, but the start to the second half is well ahead of that forecast!

Heres the comments from the research note!!

7 March 2005

2ergo (RGO.L)Buy 140p
Trading Statement Target Price: 188p (from 175p)

A trading statement from 2 ergo confirms that trading in the first half of the year has been better than anticipated driven by a steady increase of new and existing clients using its platform as well as a solid start made by its US business. A combination of these factors has caused us to upgrade our forecasts, which enhances earnings by 11.7% in 2005 and 7.5% in 2006. We have also raised our target price in line with the 2006 earnings upgrade, which implies 34% upside from current levels, leaving the shares in BUY territory.

Trading Statement. 2 ergo has issued a trading statement
this morning confirming that the first half of its financial
year is likely to exceed market expectations. The key
drivers behind this come from a combination of factors with
2 ergo seeing a steady rise of new clients using its
technology, whilst existing clients are now using a greater
range of services within its platform. The US has also made
a solid start attracting over 100,000 registered users in just
six months and is now generating income. On the back of
this, we expect 2 ergo to generate an adjusted PBT of
£0.5m (from £0.4m) at its interims in May.
Business Model. This Multiserve Platform provides
solutions for its clients that enable them to deliver and
receive interactive content and communications to and
from most devices using SMS, MMS, voice recognition
software as well as fixed and wireless Internet.

The functionality and range of services this platform is
capable of producing means that 2 ergo can offer an
extremely flexible but extensive service to a very broad
range of clients. 2 ergo's growing client base
encompasses small independent companies, blue chip
multinationals, schools, estate agents, promotion firms, TV
and radio. As the model continues to evolve, we would
expect the company to enter into new industries as
acceptance levels of convergent mobile communications
continues to grow, and existing clients increase their
dependence on using the Multiserve Platform.

US Operations. The management team identified the US
market as a major part of its growth strategy given that it
accounts for c30% of the 1.6bn world wide mobile users
with acceptance levels to new content currently below that
Europe and Asia. Whilst we have continued to assume that
the US will be loss making this year, current trading
suggests that the business model introduced as well as
current growth rates are certainly sustainable going
forward.


Forecasts. On the back of this strong statement, we have
increased our forecasts in 2005 from an adjusted PBT of
£1.2m to £1.3m increasing earnings by 11.7% to 3.8p. To
arrive at this we assume 80% top line growth (from 144%
last year) equating to a revenue run rate of £1.7m vs.
£1.4m previously assumed. For 2006 we assume a lower
level of revenue growth of 30% implying revenue run rate
of £2.2m vs. £1.8m previously assumed. This produces a
7.5% EPS upgrade.

Valuation. We are raising our target price in line with the
2006 earnings upgrade producing a target price of 188p.
This implies an EV/Revenue 2006 multiple of 1.8x and a
P/E of 33.2x with EPS growth of 50.1%. At current levels
this implies 34% upside leaving the shares in BUY territory.

[ltinvestor] 21/4/2005 10:10

results 11th may.

[topgunns] 21/4/2005 09:48

Pomp, care to provide some guesstimates and justification?

[pomp circumstance] 21/4/2005 09:19

just wait for the results!!! At this shareprice the PE wont look so outrageous!!!

[topgunns] 21/4/2005 09:11

Back to where it started. Isn't that what we said would happen? The problem is that even at these levels, the PE is higher than some companies growing faster! I like the idea of the company but will buy some only if it falls to a reasonable PE. 10-15 for this years earnings would look cheap. So you know my price target. And don't say it can't happen. We are in a miserable few months for the stockmarket and companies with high PEs can get slaughtered right now.

[2lb] 20/4/2005 14:27

I don' think the results will result in any change in share price - I would expect complete indifference in terms of the market repsone. Still, might be pleasantly surprised.

[pomp circumstance] 20/4/2005 14:23

The Group will announce its interim results for the six month period, ending 28
February 2005, on 11 May.

[pomp circumstance] 20/4/2005 14:22

its closed period so they cant announce anything anyway!!

This could be a great buying op, although Ive got quite a load of these already!!

[2lb] 20/4/2005 14:19

Well, sub 120p would be unbroken ground !

Not sue what's behind that - other than perhaps the market becoming bored with the total lack of inactvity and imagination since flotation.

[pomp circumstance] 20/4/2005 14:15

ridiculous!!

[pomp circumstance] 20/4/2005 14:15

ridiculous!!

[2lb] 20/4/2005 14:13

Goodness

It's a collpase...........

[wjccghcc] 18/4/2005 23:22

They hardly use texts in the US.

[pomp circumstance] 18/4/2005 13:50

there will be , they use their mobiles for little else other than talking and texting in the US, they hardly buy a ring tone or any content at all!!

This is why 2ERGO are targetting it!!

[ltinvestor] 18/4/2005 13:08

Very interesting article in yesterday's Sunday Business with respect to venture capital and the mobile application sector in the US.It stated that the VC'S are anxious to invest in this mobile application space now as they reckon that there will be HUGE growth in the US over the next couple of years.

[2lb] 18/4/2005 12:33

I think most peole are taking a bit of a panning today to be fair.

[pomp circumstance] 18/4/2005 12:02

all well and good calling 129, but its ghardly due to the failings of the company.
Time to buy more, these will be over 4 quid in 18 months, the money is just rolling in!!

[2lb] 18/4/2005 11:49

Hmm, there's my 129 and a bit more for good measure !!

Is that the bottom ??