1x Nflx Discussion Threads

[powereddrones] 20/4/2022 19:18

Netflix loses THIRD of its value in post-Covid SLUMP: £38BN is wiped off streaming giant as US markets open... as viewers say there's 'nothing to watch, it's too expensive' and they have 'no interest Harry and Meghan's lectures'

---

I've never subscribed - although I try to make my own entertainment!

[orinocor] 21/1/2022 16:41

Down 21% stateside today.
A buying op?

[saltaire111] 07/11/2019 16:46

Appl, Amazon and fb are sitting on that kind of cash. I’m not suggesting they are going to do it but it is not beyond the realms of possibility in this sector where scale and distribution is everything.

I’m neither long nor short Netflix.

Salty.

[marles] 27/10/2019 20:23

Any bid would be circa $140 -$150 bn dollars, don't think anyone could afford that and Netflix only have customers - fickle and price sensitive, rather than a lot of valuable assets. That said, Netflix have some good original home made content (at least for the masses, but that is what counts). Agree it is a risky short though simply because of the price and volatility. Don't see much upside though, only the Fed printing money (repo is just sneaky QE)keeping the FAANGS over inflated. I see it as a short but one for the brave where you could make a lot of money quickly with some minor bad news but you would need to carefully manage it in the meantime with a stop loss in place for spreadbetting or else some other hedging strategy like options.

[saltaire111] 18/10/2019 16:19

Tough call to short Netflix. Even with competitive environment hotting up, with the price decline over the last few months, perhaps someone with deep pockets might try a bid. Would not want to be on the wrong side of that call.

Salty.

[praipus] 19/10/2016 10:23

Recent increase mentioned on BBC Radio 4 today just 6 years too late for me:)

[mark knopfler] 27/8/2013 07:58

Your flabber must be even more gasted now!

[drdre] 07/2/2013 17:28

$180 - amazed and flabbergasted at the valuation. Not surprised though!!

[mark knopfler] 06/2/2013 12:52

Its been strong the last couple of days as its likely to replace dell in the nasdaq100.

That will be a great chance for major holders to lighten up and not depress the price.

[mark knopfler] 05/2/2013 10:24

I signed upto netflix yesterday for my free one month trial.

I started watching their new series, House of Cards.

A new programme should get the viewer transfixed early on. I turned off after 5 minutes.

Its obviously being squeezed higher with high short interest currently, and a spike up is quite possible. Once the shorts are reduced significantly, I dont see where new buyers would come.

[mark knopfler] 30/1/2013 08:03

This sums up how I feel. I am also long apple.

Whilst the short interest remains so high, its difficult to see Netflix fall much. Its times like this where having live upto date information on short interest is key.

[mark knopfler] 29/1/2013 12:47

For balance, here is a bullish article on NFLX.

However, we pretty much reached their target yesterday, so where is the upside ?

[drdre] 28/1/2013 21:38

Hi MK,

I have the longest dates SB contracts on my watchlist with IG. The deposit required to cover even a small short position of say £2 per point is £3200, which isn't bad.

Motley Fool indicates it thinks NFLX is worth between $188 and $143 per share as per



I just cannot see those valuations. MF seem to be a bull of NFLX:



Down 4% today. These crazy valued tech stocks are my hedges once the markets seem to be turning. I am therefore not prepared to risk a short entry yet.

Cheers!

[mark knopfler] 27/1/2013 20:25

Hi Doc.

try this for starters. IG Index will quote a price around the prices here, and I am sure you can go direct to brokers.

[drdre] 27/1/2013 20:07

Hi MK,

I agree. NFLX is one of a handful of stocks I will short once it becomes apparent that the pillars of sand that are supporting the stock markets are starting to crumble. Given the US' sheer bloody mindednes in not accepting reality, that may be a while.....

Are you aware of anywhere that lists puts on NFLX? Socgen do FB and AMZN but I'd like LNKD and NFLX exposure as well

[mark knopfler] 27/1/2013 19:31

Aside from the sp, I think their website is poor, the quality of films small and the competition fierce.

But they're nutters in the USA, buying stuff like this upto ridiculous levels and beyond, so shorting it is dangerous.

A long dated put option, however, would be a good idea imo.

[drdre] 24/1/2013 20:31

I've had these on my watch list as a potential short for some time.

Surged over 40% today beating estimates of 13c per share loss in Q4 2012. However, when you look at their Financials (available on the netflix IR website - my thoughts are:

- Cash and cash equivalents fell over $80m in the quarter and now stand at $290m vs $508 at the end of last year.
- Non-GAAP free cashflow stood at -$51m for the quarter - by far the worst of the year, -$58m for the full year.
- EPS was 13c for the Quarter, 29c for the FY.

Regarding their sectors:
- Domestic DVD subscribers fell 1.85m, or around 17%. Revenues in that space $115m YoY, or over 30%. Although DVD contributes less revenue than Streaming it contributes more profit to the bottom line.
- Streaming - they are making huge losses (over $100m) internationally and although domestic streaming numbers have increased over 30% the margins are much finer than for DVD.

I would recommend anyone who is interested download the Excel.

I am struck by the dwindling cash and equivalents and the negative free cashflow being generated. It's already a cramped marketplace and now on a P/E of 188, valued at over $8bn, I am stunned at the market reaction to headline numbers over the underlying fundamentals.

I will short this stock when I feel the markets are turning, or if it hits $150. I would welcome any opinions :)