Brent Crude Dips Below $50 a Barrel

Brent crude briefly fell below $50 a barrel for the first time in a week after U.S. drilling data showed another uptick, reinforcing views that the recent rally may restrain the rebalancing of oil markets.

Oil prices have surged nearly 90% since dropping to 10-year lows in February, thanks to unplanned production outages world-wide and falling output in the U.S.

However, some market participants say the rally could encourage producers to ramp up production, keeping well-supplied markets in surplus.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in July recently traded at $48.60 a barrel, down $0.47 in the Globex electronic session. August Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.37 to $50.17 a barrel.

On Friday, Baker Hughes Inc. said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by three for the week ended June 10, the second consecutive increase.

Some analysts say although the latest uptick doesn't indicate a material change in U.S. production, it does suggest the $50 a barrel price was "enough to prompt at least some shift at the margin of the market from taking rigs offline to standing them back up," said Timothy Evans, a Citi Futures analyst.

However, he said that despite the increase, the number of drilling U.S. oil rigs is still 48% lower than a year earlier. "We don't see the increase off the bottom as doing much more than slightly slowing the rate of production decline."

Still, other analysts say given the lack of positive catalysts in the market, even a marginal increase in shale production will prompt investors to take profits.

In addition, demand growth—particularly in China—could ease in the second half of the year as crude prices edge up, said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at the Shandong-based SCI International.

China has been a crucial driver of global crude demand as the government has granted more small private refiners— known as teapots—unprecedented access to buy foreign crude. In May, China crude imports rose 39% from a year earlier to 7.6 million barrels a day. However, it fell 4.3% from the month before, mainly due to port congestion.

"As crude oil prices are rising, many of the teapots are trying to capture the still-low prices by maxing their import quotas now. This is why the port is so congested and why China crude imports might slow down later in the year," Mr. Gao said.

For this week, market participants will be looking at a monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will be released later today. Some energy research firms expect that OPEC production dropped slightly in May due to outages in Nigeria and Libya. The International Energy Agency will also release its monthly outlook report on Tuesday. Market participants will also be looking to see what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do with rates this week.

Write to Jenny W. Hsu at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 13, 2016 00:05 ET (04:05 GMT)

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