Wireless Carriers Navigate Uncertain Course -- Corporate Outlook

   By Thomas Gryta 
 

The new year will test whether the telecom industry's price war has hit a near-term peak--as AT&T Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. have suggested--or whether more profit-sapping pain is ahead for the industry's leaders.

In 2014, the problem has been T-Mobile US Inc., which got rid of contracts and paid subscribers to switch. In the year ahead, the problem could be Sprint Corp., which now needs to stop shedding customers after abandoning an effort to buy T-Mobile.

There are other wild cards, too. Satellite broadcaster Dish Network Corp. has billions of dollars worth of wireless licenses and could in theory emerge as a competitor. Cable companies, too, may yet enter the wireless fray, possibly by building upon the coverage given by their Wi-Fi networks.

The price battle has been welcomed by U.S. subscribers, who generally consume more data on their smartphones and face some of the highest monthly wireless bills in the world, and by regulators, who were hoping for just such an outcome when they shot down AT&T's $39 billion deal to buy T-Mobile in 2011 and warned Sprint off trying its own deal last year.

But the promotions are taking a toll on the carriers at a bad time--just as investors are worrying about the soaring cost of acquiring the spectrum needed to grow. Share prices of the biggest four wireless carriers were hit late in the year, and Verizon and AT&T warned their profits would be hurt.

The Federal Communications Commission's auction of spectrum licenses by has drawn nearly $45 billion in bids and isn't over.

AT&T is spending big to decrease its dependence on the U.S. wireless market with the pending acquisition of DirecTV and its move into the Mexico.

"With an uneven performance this year, we believe 2015 will see further value destruction for an industry that is in need of significant help," said David Dixon, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets.

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