Novartis 1Q 2014 -- Forecast

FRANKFURT--The following is a summary of analysts' forecasts for Novartis AG (NVS) first-quarter results, based on a poll of eight analysts conducted by Dow Jones Newswires (figures in million dollars, EPS in dollar, target price in francs, according to IFRS). Earnings figures are scheduled to be released April 24.

=== 
                 Net sales: 
 
1st Quarter      -total  -Pharma -Diovan -Gleevec -Lucentis 
 
AVERAGE          14,220    8,009     806   1,128        598 
Prev. Year       13,879    7,877     918   1,143        596 
+/- in %           +2.5     +1.7     -12    -1.3       +0.4 
 
MEDIAN           14,183    8,039     807   1,150        599 
Maximum          14,525    8,159     853   1,162        611 
Minimum          13,982    7,810     762   1,086        582 
Amount                8        5       7       7          6 
 
Bernstein        14,419    8,159     853   1,159        589 
Deutsche Bank    14,329    8,039     823   1,154        590 
Helvea           14,062    7,810     779   1,090        610 
J.P. Morgan      14,266    8,044     816   1,162        611 
Kepler Cheuvreux 14,075       --     800   1,150         -- 
Morgan Stanley   13,982       --     807   1,092        582 
UBS              14,100       --      --      --         -- 
Zuercher KB      14,525    7,995     762   1,086        608 
 
                  Core     Core       Net 
             Operating      Net    attrib.        Core 
                income   income    profit   EPS    EPS 
 
AVERAGE          3,653    3,158     3,045  1.25   1.29 
Prev. Year       3,651    3,209     2,369  0.97   1.30 
+/- in %          +0.1     -1.6       +29   +29   -0.5 
 
MEDIAN           3,702    3,199     3,141  1.28   1.30 
Maximum          3,792    3,360     3,280  1.34   1.37 
Minimum          3,361    2,795     2,543  1.05   1.15 
Amount               7        6         5     5      8 
 
Bernstein        3,726    3,211     3,187    --   1.32 
Deutsche Bank    3,792    3,291     2,543  1.05   1.35 
Helvea           3,742       --      --    1.32   1.30 
J.P. Morgan      3,658    3,186     3,141  1.28   1.30 
Kepler Cheuvreux 3,590    3,104        --    --   1.27 
Morgan Stanley   3,361    2,795     3,072  1.27   1.15 
UBS                 --       --        --    --   1.29 
Zuercher KB      3,702    3,360     3,280  1.34   1.37 
 
          Target price  Rating 
 
AVERAGE          76.25  positive 3 
Prev. Quarter    80.60  neutral  3 
+/- in %          -5.4  negative 1 
 
MEDIAN           77.50 
Maximum          82.00 
Minimum          68.00 
Amount               4 
 
Deutsche Bank    75.00  Hold 
Helvea           82.00  Buy 
J.P. Morgan         --  Neutral 
Kepler Cheuvreux 68.00  Hold 
Morgan Stanley      --  Underweight 
UBS              80.00  Buy 
Zuercher KB         --  Overweight 
=== 

Year-earlier figures are as restated by the company.

DJG/mus 

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