Crude Steady as Analysts See Moderation in Global Supplies

By Christian Berthelsen 

Crude benchmarks were steady Monday, stabilizing for the moment after a four-month swoon that has dragged the market into bear territory.

Light sweet crude for front-month November delivery was up 33 cents to $83.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global Brent contract was down 19 cents to $85.97 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Analysts said the market was finding support from a decision to shut down a 500,000 barrel-a-day production field jointly operated by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for environmental reasons, at least temporarily easing growing global supplies of oil at a time of potentially weak demand.

In a research note, Morgan Stanley said crude cargo loadings from the Middle East "are set to fall sharply" in the coming weeks, and production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries appeared to be declining from September levels, which were the highest since the summer of 2013.

Analysts are mixed on whether crude's swoon is over for now or if the contracts have more room to fall. Some say the selloff has been overdone and predict stabilization or mild recovery from here, while others say more declines could be in the works.

"Our broad-based model of expected continued production strength and softening global demand, forcing world inventories higher, remains intact," research consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note, adding U.S. prices could fall to $75 a barrel and global prices to $80 a barrel in the coming weeks.

In refined product markets, gasoline futures for front-month November delivery were down 0.58 cent at $2.2269 a gallon on the Nymex. November diesel was down 0.54 cent to $2.4922 a gallon.

Write to Christian Berthelsen at [e-mail]

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