J&J Faces Rising Hepatitis C Competition -- Earnings Preview

   By George Stahl 
 

Health-care giant Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday is scheduled to report its financial results for the fourth quarter before the market opens. Here are a few things to watch.

-EARNINGS FORECAST: Earnings of $1.26 a share is the median of estimates compiled by Thomson Reuters, up from $1.24 a share in the same quarter last year.

-REVENUE FORECAST: Wall Street analysts expect revenue of $18.55 billion, up from the $18.36 billion reported one year earlier.

 
WHAT TO WATCH 
 

--HEPATITIS C SALES: Johnson & Johnson's sales have been propelled by newer drugs such as Xarelto, Zytiga, Stelara and Invokana as J&J strives to revive its consumer and medical-devices businesses. J&J's hepatitis C drug, Olysio, also had been contributing to the growth but was expected to drop off as the result of growing competition. Wells Fargo says Olysio's fourth-quarter U.S. sales could total more than $250 million, down from $671 million in the third quarter

--STRONGER DOLLAR: The dollar's recent strength against the euro and yen is likely to bite into Johnson & Johnson's sales. The company gets about 55% of its revenue from outside the U.S. Leerink Swann recently cut J&J's 2015 sales estimate by $1.2 billion to $75.1 billion and lowered its per-share earnings forecast by a dime to $6.20.

--CASH PILE: Drug companies have built up their balance sheets, leading some to think that 2015 could include a lot of health-care deals. Overall, cash reserves at pharmaceuticals jumped 11% year-over-year in the third quarter to $217 billion, according to FactSet. Johnson & Johnson was the biggest stockpiler that quarter, adding $7.8 billion to its cash on hand. Wells Fargo says, "With nearly $18 [billion] of net cash on its balance sheet, we believe that JNJ has significant resources to acquire assets that can enhance organic growth over time and buyback shares as appropriate."

--Write to George Stahl at [e-mail]

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