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Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type |
---|---|---|---|
GE Aerospace | NYSE:GE | NYSE | Common Stock |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.01 | 1.88% | 162.71 | 162.825 | 159.4205 | 161.39 | 5,030,273 | 23:55:25 |
A Make or Break Week for Q1 Earnings Season
The 2014 Q1 reporting season is underway and we have results from 29 S&P 500 members. The reporting pace accelerates this week, with 126 companies announcing first-quarter results, including 56 S&P 500 members. While the Finance sector is heavily represented in this week’s list of companies reporting results, we have enough bellwethers from other sectors to give us a good representative of the Q1 earnings season.
The low expectations for the Finance sector were borne out by the J.P. Morgan (JPM) report and will most likely be reconfirmed by this week’s Finance-heavy line-up of results. There is plenty of read through from the J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo (WFC) reports, most of it negative, for this week’s reporters, particularly Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C).
The mortgage banking weakness has been well known and no one was surprised by the sharp declines at both J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo on that front. But even J.P. Morgan’s top-notch investment banking franchise couldn’t shield its results from the persistently weak capital market flows and volumes, particularly on the fixed income side. It doesn’t bode well for Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup, though Morgan Stanley has steadily reduced its reliance on the capital markets business.
Beyond Finance, we have plenty of leaders from other key sectors on deck for releasing results this week as well. From Google (GOOGL), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC) and others in the Technology sector to Coke (KO) and Pepsi (PEP) in Consumer Staples and Transportation bellwethers like Union Pacific (UNP) and CSX Corp (CSX) and much more in between, this week’s reports span the full spectrum of the economy. As such, it may not be unfair to characterize this as the make or break week for the Q1 earnings season. The trends established this week will likely carry through the rest of this reporting cycle with only minor changes.
Scorecard for 2014 Q1 (as of Friday, April 10th)
Total earnings for the 29 S&P 500 members that have reported results are up +3.2% from the same period last year, with a ‘beat ratio’ of 58.6% and a median surprise of +2.5%. Total revenues are up +2.4%, with a revenue ‘beat ratio’ of 37.9% and a median surprise of -0.2%. Ex-finance is 12.7%
It’s premature to draw any conclusions from this small sample of results, but the growth rates and beat ratios for these 29 companies in Q1 are weaker than what we have seen from the same group of companies in other recent quarters. It has overall been a fairly uninspiring start to the Q1 earnings season.
The chart below shows how the earnings and revenue growth rates for Q1 thus far compare to what these same companies reported in 2013 Q4 and the 4-quarter average. Keep in mind, however, that we have a very small sample size at this stage.
Expectations for 2014 Q1
Total Q1 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are currently expected to be down -4.0% from the same period last year, a material decline from the +2.1% growth expected in early January 2014. Estimates for Q1 started coming down at an accelerated pace as companies predominantly guided lower on the 2013 Q4 earnings calls, consistent with the trend we have been seeing for more than a year now.
The negative revision trend is widespread, but is particularly notable for the Retail, Basic Materials, Autos, Consumer Staples, and the Energy sectors, as the chart below shows.
With roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 companies beating earnings expectations in any reporting cycle, actual Q1 results will almost certainly be better than these pre-season expectations. But Q1 is unlikely to repeat the performance of the last few quarters where we would witness a new all-time earnings total record each quarter. Total earnings for the S&P 500 reached a new all-time record of $267.4 billion in 2013 Q4.
Current estimates for 2014 Q1 aggregate to a quarterly total of $247.1 billion, but the expectation is that Q1 will be the low point for earnings this year, both in terms of earnings totals as well as the growth rate. Consensus expectations reflect a rebound in Q2, with the earnings totals in each of the following three quarters of the year setting new all-time records one after the other.
The chart below shows the aggregate quarterly earnings for the S&P 500 as whole.
Given the low Q1 expectations, it wouldn’t take much for companies to come out ahead of them. Roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500 members beat earnings expectations every quarter any way. So, more results along those lines would be nothing new and wouldn’t tell us much about the health of corporate earnings.
What we haven’t seen for a while instead is some evidence of strength on the revenue front and favorable comments from management teams about business outlook. Corporate guidance has been negative for almost two years now, causing estimates to keep coming down and the long hoped-for earnings growth turnaround getting pushed forward. Guidance is important in any earnings season, but it is particularly important this time around given the relatively elevated expectations for the second half of the year and beyond.
For a detailed look at the earnings picture, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report.
Monday-4/14
Tuesday -4/15
Wednesday-4/16
Thursday -4/17
Friday-4/18
Here is a list of the 126 companies reporting this week, including 56 S&P 500 members.
Company | Ticker | Current Qtr | Year-Ago Qtr | Last EPS Surprise % | Report Day | Time |
CITIGROUP INC | C | 1.18 | 1.29 | -19.15 | Monday | BTO |
M&T BANK CORP | MTB | 1.61 | 2.06 | -6.28 | Monday | BTO |
INFOSYS LTD | INFY | 0.79 | 0.78 | 8 | Monday | AMC |
HUNT (JB) TRANS | JBHT | 0.63 | 0.61 | -2.53 | Monday | BTO |
SEMILEDS CORP | LEDS | -0.21 | -0.22 | 14.81 | Monday | AMC |
BANK OZARKS | OZRK | 0.65 | 0.56 | 3.13 | Monday | AMC |
PEP BOYS M M &J | PBY | 0.06 | -0.05 | -61.54 | Monday | AMC |
PINNACLE FIN PT | PNFP | 0.45 | 0.39 | 2.33 | Monday | AMC |
TRIANGLE PETROL | TPLM | 0.1 | -0.2 | -25 | Monday | AMC |
COMERICA INC | CMA | 0.72 | 0.7 | 4.05 | Tuesday | BTO |
CSX CORP | CSX | 0.38 | 0.45 | -2.33 | Tuesday | AMC |
INTEL CORP | INTC | 0.37 | 0.4 | -1.92 | Tuesday | AMC |
JOHNSON & JOHNS | JNJ | 1.48 | 1.44 | 3.33 | Tuesday | BTO |
COCA COLA CO | KO | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0 | Tuesday | BTO |
LINEAR TEC CORP | LLTC | 0.46 | 0.47 | 4.55 | Tuesday | AMC |
NORTHERN TRUST | NTRS | 0.78 | 0.71 | -1.32 | Tuesday | BTO |
SCHWAB(CHAS) | SCHW | 0.22 | 0.15 | 9.52 | Tuesday | BTO |
YAHOO! INC | YHOO | 0.29 | 0.34 | 30 | Tuesday | AMC |
BOSTON PRIV FIN | BPFH | 0.2 | 0.13 | 5.26 | Tuesday | AMC |
COMVERSE INC | CNSI | N/A | 0.49 | 277.27 | Tuesday | BTO |
INTERACTIVE BRK | IBKR | 0.29 | 0.14 | -53.33 | Tuesday | AMC |
MARTEN TRANS | MRTN | 0.17 | 0.21 | -12 | Tuesday | AMC |
SKF AB | SKFRY | N/A | 0.27 | N/A | Tuesday | BTO |
SENSIENT TECH | SXT | 0.66 | 0.62 | 1.61 | Tuesday | BTO |
WESTAMER BANCP | WABC | 0.58 | 0.64 | -4.76 | Tuesday | N/A |
WINTRUST FINL | WTFC | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0 | Tuesday | AMC |
ABBOTT LABS | ABT | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0 | Wednesday | BTO |
AMER EXPRESS CO | AXP | 1.3 | 1.15 | -0.79 | Wednesday | AMC |
BANK OF AMER CP | BAC | 0.05 | 0.2 | 11.54 | Wednesday | BTO |
CAPITAL ONE FIN | COF | 1.68 | 1.92 | -3.9 | Wednesday | AMC |
GOOGLE INC-CL A | GOOGL | 5.37 | 10 | -4.06 | Wednesday | AMC |
GRAINGER W W | GWW | 2.97 | 2.94 | -1.52 | Wednesday | BTO |
HUNTINGTON BANC | HBAN | 0.17 | 0.17 | 11.76 | Wednesday | BTO |
INTL BUS MACH | IBM | 2.54 | 3 | 2 | Wednesday | AMC |
KANSAS CITY SOU | KSU | 0.98 | 0.89 | -6.36 | Wednesday | AMC |
NOBLE CORP PLC | NE | 0.69 | 0.59 | -1.2 | Wednesday | AMC |
PEOPLES UTD FIN | PBCT | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0 | Wednesday | AMC |
PNC FINL SVC CP | PNC | 1.66 | 1.76 | 3.05 | Wednesday | BTO |
SLM CORP | SLM | 0.56 | 0.61 | -11.59 | Wednesday | AMC |
SANDISK CORP | SNDK | 1.17 | 0.79 | 8.84 | Wednesday | AMC |
ST JUDE MEDICAL | STJ | 0.95 | 0.92 | 3.13 | Wednesday | BTO |
US BANCORP | USB | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.33 | Wednesday | BTO |
ADTRAN INC | ADTN | 0.16 | 0.14 | 50 | Wednesday | BTO |
ASTORIA FINL CP | AF | 0.15 | 0.14 | 20 | Wednesday | AMC |
ALBEMARLE CORP | ALB | 0.95 | 0.93 | 3.85 | Wednesday | AMC |
ASML HOLDING NV | ASML | 0.81 | 0.49 | 15.87 | Wednesday | BTO |
B&G FOODS CL-A | BGS | 0.39 | 0.37 | -12.5 | Wednesday | AMC |
BADGER METER | BMI | 0.44 | 0.2 | 4.76 | Wednesday | AMC |
CATHAY GENL BCP | CATY | 0.39 | 0.3 | 0 | Wednesday | AMC |
CROWN HLDGS INC | CCK | 0.51 | 0.5 | -4 | Wednesday | AMC |
COHEN&STRS INC | CNS | 0.4 | 0.44 | 4.88 | Wednesday | AMC |
CREDIT SUISSE | CS | N/A | 0.8 | N/A | Wednesday | N/A |
ELECTRN IMAGING | EFII | 0.23 | 0.25 | -16.67 | Wednesday | AMC |
EASTGROUP PPTYS | EGP | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0 | Wednesday | AMC |
EAST WEST BC | EWBC | 0.51 | 0.5 | 0 | Wednesday | AMC |
FIRST REP BK SF | FRC | 0.64 | 0.72 | 0 | Wednesday | BTO |
HANCOCK HLDG CO | HBHC | 0.57 | 0.56 | -1.79 | Wednesday | AMC |
HNI CORP | HNI | 0.09 | 0.03 | 11.11 | Wednesday | AMC |
HOOKER FURNITUR | HOFT | 0.23 | 0.34 | -20 | Wednesday | N/A |
NEUSTAR INC -A | NSR | 0.78 | 0.72 | -2.6 | Wednesday | AMC |
PACIFIC CONTL | PCBK | 0.21 | 0.19 | -9.09 | Wednesday | AMC |
PLEXUS CORP | PLXS | 0.6 | 0.52 | 0 | Wednesday | AMC |
PLATINUM UNDRWT | PTP | 1.24 | 2.24 | 40.65 | Wednesday | AMC |
RLI CORP | RLI | 0.54 | 0.52 | 28.57 | Wednesday | AMC |
STEEL DYNAMICS | STLD | 0.16 | 0.21 | -4 | Wednesday | AMC |
UNIVL FST PRODS | UFPI | 0.47 | 0.26 | 105.56 | Wednesday | AMC |
UTD RENTALS INC | URI | 0.7 | 0.58 | 9.66 | Wednesday | AMC |
ALLIANCE DATA | ADS | 2.59 | 2.36 | 2.29 | Thursday | BTO |
AUTONATION INC | AN | 0.75 | 0.68 | 7.79 | Thursday | BTO |
BAXTER INTL | BAX | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.8 | Thursday | BTO |
BB&T CORP | BBT | 0.71 | 0.69 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
BAKER-HUGHES | BHI | 0.8 | 0.65 | 1.64 | Thursday | BTO |
BLACKROCK INC | BLK | 4.11 | 3.65 | 12.33 | Thursday | BTO |
CHIPOTLE MEXICN | CMG | 2.82 | 2.35 | 0.4 | Thursday | BTO |
ROCKWELL COLLIN | COL | 1.06 | 1.17 | 1.05 | Thursday | BTO |
DU PONT (EI) DE | DD | 1.6 | 1.56 | 7.27 | Thursday | BTO |
DANAHER CORP | DHR | 0.8 | 0.75 | 1.05 | Thursday | BTO |
DOVER CORP | DOV | 1.02 | 1.1 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
FIFTH THIRD BK | FITB | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
GENL ELECTRIC | GE | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
GOLDMAN SACHS | GS | 3.43 | 4.29 | 11.11 | Thursday | BTO |
HONEYWELL INTL | HON | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.64 | Thursday | BTO |
KEYCORP NEW | KEY | 0.24 | 0.21 | 8.33 | Thursday | BTO |
MATTEL INC | MAT | 0.08 | 0.11 | -10.83 | Thursday | BTO |
MORGAN STANLEY | MS | 0.6 | 0.61 | 13.64 | Thursday | BTO |
PEPSICO INC | PEP | 0.75 | 0.77 | 3.96 | Thursday | BTO |
PHILIP MORRIS | PM | 1.17 | 1.29 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
PPG INDS INC | PPG | 1.98 | 1.58 | 4.62 | Thursday | BTO |
SHERWIN WILLIAM | SHW | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.57 | Thursday | BTO |
SCHLUMBERGER LT | SLB | 1.2 | 1.01 | 2.27 | Thursday | BTO |
SNAP-ON INC | SNA | 1.55 | 1.4 | 3.23 | Thursday | BTO |
UNITEDHEALTH GP | UNH | 1.09 | 1.16 | 0.71 | Thursday | BTO |
UNION PAC CORP | UNP | 2.37 | 2.03 | 2.41 | Thursday | BTO |
ACACIA RESEARCH | ACTG | 0.06 | 0.37 | -428.57 | Thursday | AMC |
ACTELION LTD | ALIOF | 1.12 | 0.98 | 101.43 | Thursday | N/A |
ALLISON TRANSMN | ALSN | 0.24 | 0.41 | 112.5 | Thursday | BTO |
ADV MICRO DEV | AMD | 0 | -0.13 | 0 | Thursday | AMC |
AMER RIVER BSH | AMRB | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0 | Thursday | AMC |
ASSOC BANC CORP | ASBC | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0 | Thursday | AMC |
ATHENAHEALTH IN | ATHN | -0.01 | 0.16 | 53.57 | Thursday | AMC |
BLACKSTONE GRP | BX | 0.56 | 0.55 | 38.27 | Thursday | BTO |
CAPITAL BNK FIN | CBF | 0.24 | 0.26 | 14.29 | Thursday | AMC |
CEPHEID INC | CPHD | -0.19 | 0.02 | 30 | Thursday | AMC |
CYPRESS SEMICON | CY | -0.04 | -0.05 | -300 | Thursday | BTO |
FIRST CASH FINL | FCFS | 0.67 | 0.68 | -10.11 | Thursday | BTO |
FAIRCHILD SEMI | FCS | 0.03 | -0.04 | 22.22 | Thursday | BTO |
FIRST HRZN NATL | FHN | 0.15 | 0.17 | 23.53 | Thursday | BTO |
HOME LOAN SERVC | HLSS | 0.53 | 0.44 | 12 | Thursday | BTO |
HOME BANCSHARES | HOMB | 0.42 | 0.31 | -43.24 | Thursday | BTO |
HUB GROUP INC-A | HUBG | 0.37 | 0.42 | 4.17 | Thursday | AMC |
INDEP BK MASS | INDB | 0.55 | 0.58 | -1.61 | Thursday | AMC |
INVESTORS BANCP | ISBC | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0 | Thursday | AMC |
KNOLL INC | KNL | 0.12 | 0.13 | -8.7 | Thursday | BTO |
NATL PENN BCSHS | NPBC | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
POOL CORP | POOL | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
PRIVATEBANCORP | PVTB | 0.41 | 0.35 | 4.88 | Thursday | BTO |
SAP AG ADR | SAP | 0.62 | 0.75 | 1.89 | Thursday | BTO |
SANDY SPRING | SASR | 0.38 | 0.42 | -9.52 | Thursday | BTO |
SELECT COMFORT | SCSS | 0.31 | 0.42 | -20 | Thursday | AMC |
SIMMONS FIRST A | SFNC | 0.48 | 0.37 | -4 | Thursday | BTO |
SONOCO PRODUCTS | SON | 0.52 | 0.5 | 0 | Thursday | BTO |
TAIWAN SEMI-ADR | TSM | N/A | 0.26 | 3.57 | Thursday | BTO |
WEBSTER FINL CP | WBS | 0.49 | 0.44 | 4 | Thursday | BTO |
WIPRO LTD-ADR | WIT | 0.13 | 0.12 | 8.33 | Thursday | BTO |
WATSCO INC | WSO | 0.47 | 0.39 | 2.04 | Thursday | BTO |
CHINA ZENIX AUT | ZX | 0.29 | 0.13 | N/A | Thursday | BTO |
1 Year GE Aerospace Chart |
1 Month GE Aerospace Chart |
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