Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Eases

DALLAS, Sept. 28, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index declined 0.4 percentage points in July to a level of 129.4. July's reading is 55 points, or 75 percent, above the index cyclical low of 74.1. The index averaged 123.6 points for all of 2015, five and four-fifths points above the index average for 2014. June's index reading was 129.8.

"Our Michigan Economic Activity Index eased in July after increasing in June. We have seen an overall upward trend in the index, with a back-and-forth monthly pattern since late 2015. Job growth in Michigan is looking choppy. State payroll employment was up by 2.4 percent in July over the previous 12 months, but the month-to-month pattern has been jarred by net job losses in May and August. Ford Motor Company announced that they will move all small car production to Mexico over the next two-to-three years. They will use Michigan capacity for higher margin vehicles. Over time, we expect to see an overall decline in auto production from Michigan," said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "Manufacturing employment in Michigan has levelled out this year. We look for growth in the service sector to sustain the state's economic expansion through the remainder of this year."

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, sales tax revenues, home prices, and auto production. All data are seasonally adjusted, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank, with more than 200 banking centers in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Michigan and Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at [e-mail]. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/economics. Follow us on Twitter: @Comerica_Econ.

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