Moody's Expects U.S. Holiday Retail Sales to Grow Up to 5.5% -- Update

(Adds details from Fitch Ratings)

 
   By Tess Stynes 
 

U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to improve 4.5% to 5.5% this year, thanks to pent-up demand, as financial uncertainties ease and consumers are drawn to updated versions of popular game systems, according to Moody's Investors Service.

The ratings firm said the projected increase in U.S. retail sales for the November-December holiday shopping season this year compares with growth of 3.8% a year earlier.

Moody's noted that its holiday sales forecast exceeds the National Retail Federation's projection for an increase of 3.9% and the International Council of Shopping Centers' chain-store sales projection for growth of 2%.

Separately, peer Fitch Ratings said it expects 2013 holiday sales will improve by 3% to 4%. The firm also projected retail sales growth in the 4% range for next year--a modest increase over its expectations for 2013--reflecting slight improvements in employment and inflation-adjusted wages. The view assumes same-store sales growth of 2% to 3%.

So far this year, retail sales and earnings are on track with the forecasts by Moody's. While sales growth has been near the lower end of the firm's view for growth of 3% to 5%, earnings growth has been in line with its estimated range between 3.5% and 4.5% as most retailers manage inventory conservatively and focus on cost controls.

"While weak sales in October this year likely reflected concerns about the government shutdown, month-over-month growth in spending on electronics, furniture and sporting goods was strong, which may indicate that consumers have begun to release pent-up demand," Moody's analyst Michael Zuccaro said.

Recently introduced game systems such as Sony Corp.'s (SNE, 6758.TO) Playstation 4 and Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Xbox One, along with Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) iPhone 5c and 5s, should boost sales for retailers like Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY), Toys "R" Us Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), according to Moody's.

Write to Tess Stynes at [e-mail]

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