MARKET SNAPSHOT: Energy Companies And Exporters Expected To Drag On S&P Earnings

By Wallace Witkowski, MarketWatch

falling oil prices, strong dollar continues through first quarter

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Energy companies and those relying heavily on international sales are expected to be the biggest drag on earnings this coming season as the S&P 500 Index is forecast to see its year-over-year quarterly earnings decline for the first time in nearly six years.

Stocks gained some needed support this past week (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-hint-at-strong-weekly-jump-2015-03-20) after the Federal Reserve indicated a slower pace of gradual rate hikes with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advancing 2.1%, the S&P 500 (SPX) rising 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index (RIXF) gaining 3.2%. The weekly gains on the Dow and the S&P 500 put them back in the black for the year.

Investors had a taste of the international revenue drag this past week as both Nike Inc (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikes-third-quarter-profit-beats-but-sales-miss-on-a-stronger-dollar-2015-03-19).(NKE) and Oracle Corp (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oracle-arnings-fall-hurt-by-rising-dollar-2015-03-17).(ORCL) reported that quarterly sales would have been much better had it not been for the stronger dollar.

With a little over a week left in the calendar quarter, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the dollar against a basket of major currencies, has gained 8% on the year, while crude oil prices have fallen another 15%. Those two factors are going to put a big squeeze on energy companies and U.S. companies that rely on international sales.

Already, S&P 500 earnings for the quarter are expected to decline 4.8% from a year ago, which would be the first year-over-year earnings decline since the third quarter of 2009. If the average low-balling of two to three percentage points holds, that still results in a decline.

Among companies with fewer than 50% of sales in the U.S., that earnings decline more than doubles to 11.6%, according to John Butter, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. Companies with more than 50% of their sales in the U.S. merely break even compared with the year ago quarter.

What's telling is when energy companies are taken out of the mix, a great weight is lifted off the earnings for the rest of the S&P 500, but companies drawing less than 50% of their revenue from U.S. sales are still looking at a year-over-year decline in earnings.

Excluding energy companies, the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to see an earnings gain of 3.1%, according to FactSet data. Companies with more than 50% of their sales in the U.S. are estimated to see a 5.9% rise in earnings, while those with less than 50% of sales in the U.S. are expected to see earnings decline by 1.3%.

Notable earnings this week

  Report Date                                                                Company/Ticker (FactSet EPS / revenue forecast) 
 Mon., March 23                                                                               None of note. 
Tues., March 24                                                            McCormick & Co. US:MCK  (64 cents / $985.1 million) 
Weds., March 25                                     Red Hat Inc. US:RHT  (41 cents / $456.9 million)Paychex Inc. US:PAYX  (46 cents / $701.3 million) 
Thurs., March 26  Accenture PLC US:ACN  ($1.07 / $7.38 billion)ConAgra Foods Inc. US:CAG  (52 cents / $3.87 billion)PVH Corp. US:PVH  ($1.73 / $2.1 billion)GameStop Corp. US:GME  ($2.16 / $3.64 billion) 
 Fri., March 27                                                             Carnival Corp. US:CCL  (10 cents / $3.57 billion) 
 

Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires