Daniel Thwaites Share Discussion Threads

[mw8156] 01/5/2019 14:08

all three Nex brewers look cheap against their NAV, particularly Thw, but all are struggling to grow profits and have not been helped by the tax breaks available to micro, so-called breweries, as stated above, also some signs in Whitbread and Green King's results that the consumer may be slowing down outside London so personally would rank these as Shepherd, Thwaites, then Adnams in order of attractiveness but none as attractive as Young's or Fullers....City pub group well located pubs but expensive? other views welcome...

[jbfnfn] 01/5/2019 13:34

Mr Bowler

Is it possible to get the price chart to work for this thread. On the SHEP thread you get the price by using the nex prefix NEX:SHEP. If you use NEX:THW maybe the chart would work.

Thanks in Advance

[jbfnfn] 01/5/2019 13:30

timnet: The obvious answer to that is someone is selling.

Having said that none of the three pub companies/ brewers quoted on the Nex exchange only are doing well share price wise.

nex:thw Thwaites
nex:adb Adnams
nex:shep Shepherd Neame

They all seem to be sliding down together. I see the pub business as quite resilient. Thwaites now just has a micro brewery but the other two still brew beer commercially. I wonder if the market thinks they are just too small scale. Too big for the tax breaks of a micro brewer too small to compete with the global brewers. Fullers (FSTA) recently sold the Grffin brewery to the Japanese.

Could also be a liquidity issue. These are unquoted businesses you can only buy and sell on the Nex exchange. All three are family controlled so no chance of a takeover.

I hold a few of each of these based on asset value, but it's been a poor strategy over the last few years. I'm just a penny punter.

[timnet] 30/4/2019 17:39

Anyone have any idea why Thwaites seems to be sinking? Complete lack of information from the company............

[cjohn] 21/11/2018 10:07

The trial of the travellers who junked Thwaites' brewery.

[glassboy] 08/9/2018 13:48

Looks like the brewery move is done... first brew at the new site last week, cheers!
www.thwaites.co.uk/news-and-awards/brewery-move/

They also rebranded their hotels and inns as "The House of Daniel Thwaites" recently.

Quite a wait until the interims in November, I wonder if we will get a trading update showing the effects of the new hotels and inns in a sunny World Cup summer.

Gb

[cjohn] 19/6/2018 08:12

Hi Davebowler, Yes, it should do. No significant impact on the financials.


Very sorry for the workers and management of a very decently run company.



Hi Timnet, I agree. The balance sheet net tangible asset figure certainly understates the real position because of the two reasons you cite.

I suspect too that one or two of the hotels could be flogged off at a significant premium to book value.

[davebowler] 18/6/2018 14:55

C John yes I did, but suspect any insurance may cover the disgraceful incident.

[timnet] 18/6/2018 14:51

The additional points of interest for me are:
potential value to be unlocked from the brewery site;
eventual reduction/unwinding of the interest rate swaps liability - as interest rates start to increase; and
the potential for increased dividends. All of them very long term considerations.

I really appreciate their new strategy and their drive towards improved quality.

[cjohn] 18/6/2018 14:51

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-5850281/ROBERT-HARDMAN-did-police-stop-travellers-destroying-historic-brewery.html

Did you see this Davebowler?

[cjohn] 13/6/2018 09:08

Hi davebowler, I took profits here some time ago.

The results were promsing from a trading point of view, with current share price 145p underpinned by eps of 13+.

But debt is up quite markedly again; capex in form of maintenance and upgrades always eats up more than operational cash Flow.

So the value here is in the tangible assets. It's not clear to me how this can be realsied for shareholders. So i won't be buying back in. There are other better asset plays around.

[davebowler] 13/6/2018 07:24

hTTps://www.insidermedia.com/insider/northwest/thwaites-upbeat-despite-weather-woes?utm_source=northwest_newsletter&utm_campaign=northwest_news_tracker&utm_medium=manufacturing_article

[cjohn] 15/9/2017 10:18

Yes, only half tangible book, and I think the hotels are entered at conservative valuations.

[coolen] 13/9/2017 21:34

And remain cheap, in the absence of an analyst (!) ?

[cjohn] 13/9/2017 10:32

Well-spotted you.

What a balls up of a sentence! I meant of course..... in the absence of a catalyst.

[extrader] 11/9/2017 13:41

Hi CJohn,

And the price keeps slowly rising, in the absence of a lack of catalyst.

?? Shome mishtake, shurely ?

ATB

[cjohn] 11/9/2017 10:12

And the price keeps slowly rising, in the absence of a lack of catalyst.

[septimus quaid] 14/8/2017 08:09

Pity the header share graph is bust

[cjohn] 14/8/2017 07:43

Recent sales of the bottom end pubs have been at book value, giving further confidence in the accounts.

[cjohn] 11/8/2017 11:16

Thwaites continues its quiet rise.

I've held this share for three years now. It's up over 50% since then and has also paid a dividend of a few % per year.

I make that an annual return of about 17%. What's more the stock is trading at half tangible book value. And the book values of the hotels are very likely to be conservative.

[coolen] 07/6/2017 22:56

Thanks guys for keeping us small investors informed.

[jbfnfn] 07/6/2017 22:15

From page 49 of the Annual Report 2017

"In addition, the Company has planned capital expenditure for the year ended 31 March 2018 of £19.0m, which includes the acquisition of the Langdale Chase Hotel which completed on 19 April 2017."

[davebowler] 07/6/2017 08:42

HTtps://www.insidermedia.com/insider/northwest/thwaites-toasts-rising-profits?utm_source=liverpool_newsletter&utm_campaign=liverpool_news_tracker&utm_medium=manufacturing_article