Futura Medical Share Discussion Threads

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 22:42

Patents to protect Eroxon until 2040 have been filed in all major jurisdictions, with the EU patent granted and others pending. These formulation patents should make it challenging for any other similar style of product(s) to receive regulatory approvals, unless they can demonstrate that any differences in formulation (which would be needed to not infringe the patents) are substantially equivalent to Eroxon; this is not a straightforward process

keep smiling - you are out of step dear chap :)

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 20:48

Why does the failure of this business matter to you so much dear chap...the level of detail you attend to to franticaly draw attention to yourself is mindblowing to say the least - you inhabit the space I suspect as the most prolific doomster on ADFVN.

If this business does fail, just let it fail - why the need to keep poking it so hard is quite baffling....perhaps every single decision and risk is turning out for the worst so why worry so much - just try to state one single thing you like about the business and perhaps a single person may read your posts without worrying about you...

Need to set up a new user community for FUD worriers anonymous where all those who are traumatised about the possible success of an AIM business can share all their anxieties :)

[mdi] 04/5/2024 17:24

And at 30 June 2023 there is also now close to £65 million in retained losses in Futura. The question is if Eroxon has been more or less fully licensed out so as the distributors control its future. And all of the other Futura products have now disappeared. Why would the large shareholders be willing to continue to pay the Directors well over £1m per year to be effectively doing nothing? Never mind the adding in of the annual costs of being AIM market listed. And if as they say they dont need to raise any more money even at this current £100m paper market valuation from shareholders. Then why even waste money on being listed? Didn’t they claim in the recent presentation Q&A they were starting to get some institutional interest? Yet the share price even with all the supposedly positive future is still falling over the last few weeks and months?

[petroc] 04/5/2024 17:07

Good to see buoyancy in the share price again, and MDI desperately trying to hold back the tide! He must wish he had some real ammunition instead of the tired old smoke and mirror deceptions, misdirection, obfuscations and total lies he regularly copy/pastes.

[mdi] 04/5/2024 16:53

How much has the Futura market cap declined now since June of last year? I read that the major shareholders average price is still well below even the current share price. So even even if the share price declines further they will still be in profit. So will Directors on many of their 7p and 15p share options if the share price even falls another 40% to the low 20’s. That would still be a Market Cap of nearly £70m





Hard to tell which is falling faster now. Eroxon sales after the hype or the Futura market cap after the hype. But the fact remains that the £1.7m revenue in April/May was followed by only £1.4m in the following 6 months. New market launches being hyped and staggered may well help short term to prop up the obvious declining sales.

[mdi] 04/5/2024 12:19

Its becoming more clear why John Clarke would leave Futura Medical like he did just after the Haleon announcement.



The obvious question always had to be why would any long standing senior executive leave when Futura was supposedly just on the cusp of doing so well worldwide? And on the back of a Haleon deal in USA who he would have history with in terms of its consumer healthcare division and which is also supposedly promising so much potential revenue too?

‘Mr Clarke worked at GlaxoSmithKline for over 35 years, most recently as president of GSK Consumer Healthcare’

[mdi] 04/5/2024 10:26

‘until it is highly probable that a significant reversal in the amount of cumulative revenue recognised will not occur’

So what else in the markets where Eroxon has already been sold to consumers as ‘clinically proven’. Are the distributors worried about causing a significant reversal in the revenue already recognised?



CE-marking is no excuse for uncorroborated claims of efficacy. The successful CE certification of a medical device or remedy does not release companies from the obligation to prove the correctness of advertising statements

The court did not concur with the defendant’s arguments. It stated that the CE conformity assessment is neither an official approval procedure nor an administrative legal act. The so-called “notified bodies” which carry out conformity checks and award the CE-certificates are private companies. The tests carried out by these companies therefore rather amount to plausibility checks, which, moreover, only concern individual aspects, for example, of a production process. A product’s (alleged) therapeutic effectiveness is not (necessarily) examined.
In effect, the court enjoined the defendant from continuing the advertising of the product.

[mdi] 04/5/2024 10:13

Its all hidden in the brokers notes

Trinity say ‘These formulation patents should make it challenging for any other similar style of product(s) to receive regulatory approvals, unless they can demonstrate that any differences in formulation (which would be needed to not infringe the patents) are substantially equivalent to MED3000; this is not a straightforward process’. The use of language like ‘should’ and only saying its not straightforward’ is far from very reassuring.

And Stifel in the recent note openly admitted who is really profiting by selling these placebo hydroalcoholic gels. And its not Futura.

˜though a chunk of that will be absorbed by distributors and other middlemen’


And Futura have even admitted any of the real revenue they may hope to see from royalties and milestones is based on the market for the product being really sustainable long term and again is in the hands of the distributors who get the ‘chunk’



˜Other variable considerations such as milestone payments and royalties are not recognised in full until it is highly probable that a significant reversal in the amount of cumulative revenue recognised will not occur. In managements opinion, that will be when the Groups customer confirms that the milestone has been met or that a royalty is due’

[mdi] 04/5/2024 10:03

Yea placebo effects do wear off for many and its yet to be determined how sustainable the market size is for these non medicated hydroalcoholic gels in ED. Not even Futura can comment or give estimates on repeat sales. Yet clearly in the Futura results its been proven sales fell off substantially after the launch hype and when the partners back off marketing.



Wellness Investors: Beware The Placebo Trap

Whats the problem with placebos? Placebo effects tend to wear off, and when they do, your customers will drop off. This forces tremendous spending on acquisition since it can cost five times as much to acquire new customers than keep current ones.

Since repeat customers generate more than half of the revenue for a majority of businesses, pretty packaging of a placebo will likely struggle to sustain sales. Perhaps the boom and bust commonly seen with wellness brands isn’tt due to the hype cycle, but rather the placebo cycle.



But one thing is for sure. There is no real enforceable barriers to entry. So if a sustainable profitable market does exist for these placebo hydroalcoholic gels then others who already are established in the market with similar products will enter the market too.

Either way its unlikely Futura will ever get enough revenue itself from the sustainable annual sales to justify its current market cap



Could a 'Placebo' Become the Next Big ED Treatment?

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 09:56

You have to accept the inconsistency fundamental to your arguments - if this is a placebo and the market does not work for Eroxon due to the placebo effect, long term it will work for no one and no patents are required as our sales will drift away and no one will invest massive sums to build brands in an unsustainable market.

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 09:54

I won't repost the hundreds of posts of arguing for the important risks of a placebo effect wearing off and levels of repeat sales falling quickly away....i.e. no sustainable long term market is your overriding message and nothing to draw in rivals to offer economic returns...

Please try not to split hairs....

[mdi] 04/5/2024 09:48

‘Ah, but you have said over 1,000 times that none of these gels can work anyway as it is a placebo and no repeat sales’

Nobody ever said placebos don’t work for some men with ED. Quite the opposite. Prior art shows placebos do work



‘Men with erectile dysfunction (ED) who were in the placebo arm of clinical trials of phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5Is) had significant improvement in erectile function’



What I have said is there is no evidence Eroxon is working beyond any similar hydroalcoholic placebo gel would in any similar medical device studies. Its actually also been proven placebo effects do work for some especially topical medical device placebos that are rubbed in



‘Recent research has shown that the placebo effect is not only similar for medical devices to medical trials; it is considerably larger, the effect of a sham device is almost three times that of an oral placebo’



Placebo Treatment: Don't Eat It, Rub it!

‘indications to suggest that a topical placebo induces stronger effects than an oral’



But nobody can patent placebo effect or prevent others from claiming their similar non medicated hydroalcoholic gel also works as well as Eroxon for some men with ED.

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 09:42

So you double down on your speculation put forward as fact approach.

If this is correct I expect to see rivals rush into the European markets to compete against Eroxon. Ah, but you have said over 1,000 times that none of these gels can work anyway as it is a placebo and no repeat sales.

So there is no market there for anyone and Haleon is wasting their time entirely even if they bypass Eroxon and do it themselves.

Have your cake and eat it - the share price is totally on the ropes at these levels or are you simply desparate for it to go even lower for your paymasters :)

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 09:15

So there’s been an offset in the portfolio with that. So I think, at least to see the performance being good on Voltaren in the quarter. From an innovation point of view, I think given its OTC, this has much slower innovation cycles. I mean the last big innovation cycle, we did this with Voltaren was the double strength or extra strength formulation which I think it’s now nearly everybody in the world, but not fully.

This is what he said in the CC - there is no possible inference whatsoever that the Haleon pain gel tech is in any way linked to ED roll out.

So yes as ever with you a ton of hypothetical possibilities, but not linked to the reality as laid down by the firm.

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 09:00

If no patent is enforceable then I suspect all of these rival firms will be about to hit the markets at any point shortly with alternative options - they have not so far.

If I was Haleon and genuinely believed that no patent was enforceable I agree I would explore the risks/rewards of developing an in house Haleon rival gel vs. Eroxon.

But you may think all this, but it is 100% speculation. It is dangerous to put forward your personal speculation about the merits of patents as fact when these have not been tested in law.

These are all possible risks of course alongside my comments on sales. And while they remain unconfirmed one way or the other the share price remains where it is...

[mdi] 04/5/2024 08:57

And don’t forget Futura themselves were comparing their own pain gels based on Dermasys to the Voltaren vehicle gel pain products all along. Maybe another reason they recently removed all references to these gel off their website?

Even the brokers in the past have warned all along‘ There is a risk that some claims will either be challenged in future (eg on the grounds of non-obviousness or existence of prior art) and/or that another technology may be employed to achieve a similar effect’



˜TPR100 gave similar results to the gold standard, Voltarol 2% gel’




A key element of Futura Medicals strategy is to reduce development risk through using well characterised existing agents that are reformulated with its proprietary DermaSys technology to create new products. This means intellectual property protection is limited to use patents for the individual products and umbrella patents for the technology. There is a risk that some claims will either be challenged in future (eg on the grounds of non-obviousness or existence of prior art) and/or that another technology may be employed to achieve a similar effect

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 08:54

The main reason the share price is down at this level imvho is the failure of the board to provide Q1 sales figures which after the slight drop in H2 2023 allows suspicions to develop over product marketing strategy in UK - Amazon sales down from 4k/month to 1k/month just another small part of what the investor can pick up on in the absence of other data.

I suspect they are hoping for impact from the overseas launches so they can report a global H1 2024 sales total which may not allow us to compare UK only 6 monthly comparatives.

At some point they will need to provide clear sales data to support the investment case with regional breakdowns.

With the delays of a US launch (for reasons I note above), the uncertainties are holding us back for now.

These are the more important issues for now and not the myriad of spurious assertions posted multiple times a day by someone who ignores valid counter arguments when offered to them.

dyor and NAI

[mdi] 04/5/2024 08:50

That is what the FDA only defined Eroxon as,

‘a non medicated hydroalcoholic gel’

Exactly what the Voltaren vehicle gel is


And no specific formulation Futura patent will ever be enforceable as any similar Hydroalcoholic gel can reproduce the similar evaporative cooling effects. And this is what Futura claims is having the effect. The cooling. Even Futura previously admitted they got the idea from elsewhere



˜The Company has conducted initial literature and in vitro based research that has shown the cooling from the evaporation of these specific combinations of solvent’

[takeiteasy] 04/5/2024 08:43

You have missed my point entirely.

Just because they have some brands that use a similar technology does not mean they of necessity need to apply it in this case - it will be done on a business case costs/benefits.

The critical issue here is which legal entity ultimately owns the US patent rights to use this in ED gel - this will determine imvho the next moves.

If the patent lands with Eroxon for US distribution then to apply your approach Haleon would need to buy FUM for the global patent rights and reformulate Eroxon to use their version of the gel technology.

Why waste all the existing brand development work of Eroxon.