Capital Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 23/4/2024 14:23

Great to see buying coming in now at 98.82p.

[davebowler] 23/4/2024 13:33

Stocko pedia is showing this as a buy due to its appearance in the alert screen triggered by its 'Golden Cross' chart formation. Every bit helps!

[hpcg] 23/4/2024 08:39

Perhaps Adam - I mean obviously that helps, especially the dividend minded. I just feel a large portion of the UK public are not investment minded, and for those that are all-world, Nasdaq and SP500 trackers really are the first option. Small cap investing, which is all but the top 50 listed companies, at least by the hedge fund definition, is a niche endeavour. Alas plenty of those so inclined will fall into the intensively promoted cult stock trap, though it has to be said even those are thin on the ground right now.

[adamb1978] 23/4/2024 08:25

Hi hpcg

We *should* see something of a reversal of people ignoring small caps over the next 6-12 months as interest rates get cut. Earning 5%-6% risk free with savings narrows the gap too much to what people perceive they might make on small caps on a risk-adjusted basis.

Once savings products or similar low/no risk things start offering returns beginning with a 3 then small caps should become more in vogue. My view is that rates will tumble very soon given how low inflation is - if you take the last 6-9 months, inflation in the UK is sub 1% but figures are masked by large monthly jumps last spring (dont have precise figres to hand).

Adam

[hpcg] 23/4/2024 08:18

The continuous of acquisitions at the smallish end of the UK market must be providing some institutions with pause to cast their net further, especially as the ratio of dross to solid companies gets ever larger. Equally watchlists must be shrinking as quality members are taken over. It is still difficult to fight the tides of money being withdrawn. A place to aim is the FTSE250, but we are a way off that with realistically a £400mn market cap being the entry level, though with depletion in that index who knows.

[rivaldo] 23/4/2024 07:35

CAPD have a new institutional investor - Rockwood Strategic disclosed as follows in their recent monthly factsheet for last month:



"We purchased two new holdings this quarter.....Secondly we bought Capital Limited. This business has grown consistently, building a world leading position in the provision of drilling services to Mining companies. Asset rich, it has, over time, diversified by geography and client, breaking into the majors, such as Barrick. It has an unparalleled safety record, and been developing a Laboratory services business which is totally ignored in the valuation of the shares on a ‘24 PE of 6.2x and EV/Ebitda 4x. Equity owning, proven management should address this in time. We believe its ‘hue’ of resources has created a blind spot for generalist investors."

[rivaldo] 22/4/2024 06:54

CAPD's holding in WIA Gold has risen another 12% overnight (after a successful fundraising) to new highs at $AD0.098 - it's now worth £9.3m:

[davebowler] 19/4/2024 05:04

Gold testing all time highs again in various currencies overnight.

[rivaldo] 18/4/2024 23:07

Very encouraging performance today given both the usual trend on results day and especially going ex-div too.

Interesting little 8,776 buy at 95.4p reported late as well.

[spooky] 18/4/2024 18:12

That must be the first results day in memory where the shares didn't sell off.

[hpcg] 18/4/2024 16:15

Good response to the trading update considering we are XD today.

[deanowls] 18/4/2024 12:42

What’s the value of the sukaru kit?

[rivaldo] 18/4/2024 11:42

Tamesis Partners reiterate their 160p target price and forecast 18.7c EPS this year, or exactly 15p EPS.

They summarise:

"Investments.

Total value of investments (listed and unlisted) was $51.7m as at 31 March 2024 up from ($47.2m) at as 31 December 2023). Strong growth in the investments over the quarter, driven by the gold rally as a majority of the investments are gold companies (namely Allied Gold, Predictive Discovery and WIA Gold). Predictive released their long awaited PFS this week, and WIA announced an updated MRE with a 63% increase in contained gold at their Kokoseb asset in Namibia .

• Outlook.

Revenue guidance has been re-iterated at $355-375m. We expect strong improved performance across Drilling and MSALABs, while Mining is ticking along as expected. The Sukari kit has the ability to be redeployed and deliver step changes to the P&L, while the elevated commodity prices sets the scene for further potential drilling contracts. We maintain our current revenue estimate of $358m.

Investment Case

We remain positive on the outlook for a strong operational performance through 2024. Key growth projects in the Capital business are ramping well, projects continue to be won with high quality clients and rigs are being mobilised to higher quality contracts.

MSALABS is developing momentum, both at their NGM labs contract and their partnership with Barrick. The mining services business has the potential for another big contract. The company is trading on EV/EBITDA and PE multiples for FY24 of 2.4x and 6.2x, and for FY25 2.2x and 5.4x, while delivering a dividend yield of 3.4%. We remain comfortable with our 160p PT."

[hpcg] 18/4/2024 10:28

MSALABs momentum really building. As Mark Simpson has often noted the market will at some point count this as the most important part of the business. Ultimately though I think Capital is no different to every other London listed company in that it requires buybacks to drive the share price. What dividend advocates miss is that dividends, especially 6 monthly 1/3 2/3 destroy momentum and that and liquidity are key investor interest nowadays.

[chillpill] 18/4/2024 08:44

Just been reading the Tamesis note. They remain comfortable with their 160p PT.

There always remains the question whether Jamie and Rudd will sell down.

[rivaldo] 18/4/2024 08:37

Stifel state "1Q24 Sets Foundation for Strong 2024".

But subscription-only so no further detail:

[chillpill] 18/4/2024 07:34

Solid results.

As ever on results day they will probably trade down 5% in the first couple of hours!

[rivaldo] 18/4/2024 07:27

Today's update shows a steady as she goes Q1, ready for the big contracts commencing this Q2 at Belinga, Reqo Diq and Nevada.

Good to see guidance for the year being reiterated, and ARPOR increased markedly to an impressive $202,000. Excellent year on year growth at MSALabs/Chrysos and at Mining offset a little Q1 weakness in Drilling.

The picture for this quarter onwards remains excellent, with Q1 generally being a weaker quarter, whilst traders who bought recently will no doubt consider this quarter's results weren't exciting enough for them.

[rivaldo] 17/4/2024 14:27

Hello - 50,000 shares just bought at 95.34p, well above the 94p offer. Very keen.

Hardly surprising with the gold price now at $2,387.

[death by donut] 17/4/2024 10:21

could do with getting over that recent 94p .DbD

[davebowler] 17/4/2024 08:43

On Stockopedia CAPD is showing as a strong buy based on the Golden Cross chart formation.

[davebowler] 12/4/2024 15:38

htTPS://doceo.tv/insights/news/gold-is-dead-long-live-gold/

[hpcg] 09/4/2024 13:24

I agree. PDI likely to be taken out given the scale of its resource. Allied is a slightly different case, but an exuberant market should provide decent exit liquidity.

[adamb1978] 09/4/2024 08:46

Problem with the above is that there is no evidence that the market attributes any value to those investments.

The best thing for CAPD in relation to these would be if a higher gold price gives confidence to larger companies in the sector such that a wave of consolidation begins and these investee companies of CAPD get taken out.

Harder for the market to ignore cash, irrespective of what CAPD ultimately do with that cash