Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 29/6/2026 18:11:06

Council houses good idea if rents cheap - well worth getting on a waiting list if you can

[sikhthetech] 29/6/2026 17:18:38

Leasehold concerns widen gap between house and flat prices

New analysis has shown that the average UK house now costs 1.7 times as much as the average flat, the greatest disparity since records began. The findings underline the growing impact that leasehold complexity, service charges, ground rent, and uncertainty around reform are having on buyer confidence, especially in England and Wales where flats are most sold on a leasehold basis.

"The gap is even wider when London is excluded. Outside the capital, the average house now costs 2.3 times as much as the average flat, up from 1.8 times in 2016. The West Midlands has the widest gap, with houses costing 2.5 times as much as flats."





sikhthetech - 07 Oct 2022 - 14:31:19 - 10336 of 13726
During GFC I predicted 40% falls in property prices, peak to trough, in some areas. Asking prices fall the biggest amount. New builds usually command a premium which would be significantly reduced or disappear in a housing crash.
I'm expecting similar this time.

[jugears] 29/6/2026 17:05:48

Maccy, just one tincy wincy little problem there, The demand for privately owned homes is going away & will always be there so the hb's won't be dropping their own work to work on 1-3% margins anytime soon so who will build them? more importantly where will the skilled Labour &materials come from? good job its a 10 year plan but will Labour be in power then?, I very much doubt, I am going to be honest here you haven't got a clue how the building trade works, I think its is very unlikely much will change in the next few years, its ok having a vision but how far in the future is it?

What you have to remember also is that a vast majority of people don't want to rent homes they want to buy,there must be a lot of vacant public land that I never new existed, brownfield is not cheap to convert & build on either.

Its a good Job I traded my shares at 85p, this was never going back up in a straight line but it will go up though.

They can build as many council houses as they want but it won't have any effect on the price of houses as we need all sizes & price ranges, to rent & for sale!

[sikhthetech] 29/6/2026 16:55:29

Andy Burnham's plans on Housebuilding


Biggest Social Housing building program since WW2.... Social housing as opposed to bigger new builds...




New No 10 North plan will rebalance power in Britain, Burnham promises


"A new Downing Street team based in Manchester and labelled 'No 10 North' will "oversee the biggest rebalancing of power our country has ever seen", Andy Burnham has said in his first speech since launching a bid to be the next prime minister.

Speaking in Manchester, he vowed to "redistribute power" across the UK in an effort to "drive good growth in every postcode".

He also promised the "biggest council house building programme" since the post-war period; a "complete rethink" of education and cuts to welfare in a "fair and lasting way"."

[macromike] 29/6/2026 16:16:22

The basic rules of supply and demand will now reduce the value of houses. People will have more options; private rent, council rent (probably the best value), private buy, and very expensive newbuild poor quality houses. With added estate management fees.

The value of property will continue to decline for the foreseeable future, spilling over into the commercial property market, and that will be a good thing for the economy. The disproportionate cost of property is a burden for everyone and practically every business.

[macromike] 29/6/2026 16:08:55

So that's it then? Topped out at 85p. Even I thought TW would do a little better than that for a week or two.

Anyway, back to the decline into a cashless abyss for Taylor Wimpey. The incoming prime minister has set the seal on it:



Andy Burnham has pledged to deliver the “biggest council house building programme since the post-war period”, confirming an ambition which he first mentioned earlier this year.

The building programme, to be overseen by Number 10 North, will seek to reduce costs by using vacant public land and bringing higher density residential development across the UK’s towns, Burnham said.

[sikhthetech] 29/6/2026 14:42:35

Lefrene,

"34% of new builds in the London area are "unsellable", and being sold off en-bloc to corporations and housing associations at steep discounts."

Absolutely.
building 1000s of new builds during a subdued housing market will only lead to more and more unsold inventory, unfinished developments, sold off at significant discounts to avoid potential ghost developments.

Newsflow continues as expected...






sikhthetech - 07 Oct 2022 - 14:31:19 - 10336 of 13726
During GFC I predicted 40% falls in property prices, peak to trough, in some areas. Asking prices fall the biggest amount. New builds usually command a premium which would be significantly reduced or disappear in a housing crash.
I'm expecting similar this time.

[sikhthetech] 29/6/2026 14:26:04

Net,

TW were demoted from Ftse 100 almost a year ago, Sept 2025.

[lefrene] 29/6/2026 07:32:27

Article in Sunday Torygraph, 34% of new builds in the London area are "unsellable", and being sold off en-bloc to corporations and housing associations at steep discounts.

Plainly builders are very short of cash and can't carry the stock until it finds a retail buyer. So do we see a builder bail-out by our Marxist Gov coming down the line? Plainly this Socialist utopia has to keep building hutches for the plebs, be a tad inconvenient and off script, if the builders were to crash en-masse.

[netcurtains] 27/6/2026 14:33:51

And they can easily get into ftse100 with a bit of a prevailing wind 😀

[jugears] 27/6/2026 13:40:41

They are in the FTSE 250 not 100.

[netcurtains] 27/6/2026 11:18:48

TW has by far the best Dividend Yield in the ftse100

over 9%

And has the 5th lowest market cap in the FTSE100 compared to its net assets.

And the underlying business:
"
There has been a 14% year-on-year increase in new home registrations in Q4 2025,
"

With the Brucie "Play Your Cards Right" methodology of investing (I am currently following)
the next card for TW is HIGHER HIGHER (statistically speaking)

[sikhthetech] 26/6/2026 12:58:06

Berenberg becomes latest broker to change HB targets, citing margin pressures...




LONDON BROKER RATINGS: Berenberg cuts Berkeley and raises Bellway

TW 100p (105p)
Btrw 348p(414p)
PSN 1150p(1300p)
BKG 4000p and (Citigroup 3650p)

BWY 2400p (2100p)
VTY 263p (340p)

[netcurtains] 26/6/2026 12:45:55

A 100p broker target seems conservative to me...
I would have thought 120p is on the cards using the Brucies cards methodology

[jugears] 26/6/2026 12:43:12

Brokers lol oh lol !!!!

[philanderer] 26/6/2026 12:30:52

Berenberg cuts Taylor Wimpey price target to 100 (105) pence - 'buy'

[netcurtains] 26/6/2026 08:05:34

super bowl is my vision.... touchwood

[sikhthetech] 25/6/2026 21:42:27

BKG RBC broker views.

Following their results yesterday. RBC raised their target

majority of their buyers are non-UK
off plan sales softening..





"Berkeley Group Holdings PLC (LSE:BKG) remains RBC Capital Markets' preferred UK housebuilder, with the broker raising its share price target as the increased focus on shareholder returns and cash generation should continue to support the shares despite a subdued housing market.

RBC increased its price target to 4,100p from 3,850p and reiterated its 'outperform' rating following Berkeley's annual results, reflecting higher estimates for tangible book value as it expects the company to favour share buybacks over dividends.

The broker made only minor changes to profit forecasts and continues to expect cumulative pre-tax profit of £1.42 billion between the 2027 and 2030 financial years, in line with management's guidance for more than £1.4 billion. Profits are expected to be slightly more heavily weighted towards the 2027 financial year.

Current trading reflects an uncertain market, analyst Anthony Codling acknowledged, with off-plan sales softening because of a lack of urgency among purchasers.

Management remained positive on the long-term outlook for London, where housing undersupply persists.

Codling noted that around 50-60% of Berkeley's buyers continue to come from outside the UK.

He said Berkeley's new strategy of prioritising cash generation over short-term profit growth, with £640 million earmarked for shareholder returns between September 2026 and September 2030, of which £112 million has already been returned.

Around two-thirds of future distributions to come via buybacks rather than dividends, with the lower share price making repurchases more attractive."


Berkeley is the most attractive housebuilder due to returns strategy, says RBC

[sikhthetech] 25/6/2026 21:09:58

In the meantime, enjoy some trading...
I see the UN has halted their evacuation of SoH due to ships coming under fire...

[sikhthetech] 25/6/2026 21:08:10

UH,

Absolutely. Currently, HBs aren't building more due to lack of demand, due to affordability...
It will take a while for economic growth but it can be done....

The minimum wage hike doesn't help. Companies can't hire if minimum wages are too high... it pushes up wages for those on the next step up etc... Businesses have to make a profit, which is a point the govn seem not to understand...

Reduce business costs, like business rates....


TW's H1 ends next week.

[uhound] 25/6/2026 16:22:21

The only thing that will push the house builders up is if they can build more properties and for more money.

So, interest rates are a key factor.
Jobs growth.
A strong growing economy.
Stable inflation.

Most experts predict a rate rise before end of year. They may or may not be right.
Jobs are not being created on the back of Labour polices.
Ditto a strong growing economy.
Inflation still above target.

Burnham may have policies that will help or hinder, currently people think he will be good for the economy, hence the rally in some stocks - but we will see.

When TW and others tell us they are building sigificantly more, then we may see a sustainable rise in the shares. I don't think that is likely anytime soon.

[tergifts] 25/6/2026 15:04:15

Sikh

LOL- I think you will find the News is there just to justify the monthly and weekly cycles.

The cycles are like built in AI that already have the economics built in.

Dividends periods are known, Results declaration dates are known, it all in the stars.../charts. Yes we may have had a magnifying effect due to iran/ Ukraine but the cycle remains the same.

[sikhthetech] 25/6/2026 14:51:05

Can Andy Burnham fix Britain’s housing crisis?

The likely new PM will have to face a building industry in the doldrums, stagnating property prices and buyers put off moving by tax. We lay out his options