Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[kreature] 23/4/2024 21:58

Well there’s a huge sell there for 1,050,720 shares, I dunno if that’s typical here tho ?

[jugears] 23/4/2024 21:19

Was that 140?, I'm sure u said this WILL be red today????

[kreature] 23/4/2024 20:18

Sub 130 tomorrow?

[jugears] 23/4/2024 17:20

Now who was it that said these will be in the red tonight????
Sicky I very much doubt the CMA investigation will find anything & probably very difficult to prove if they did, but at least its something else for you to worry about seeing as millions of people were not made redundant or had their houses repossessed & there doesn't seem much likelihood of this 30% fall in house prices peak to trough, No two recessions or downturns are the same. Before the financial crisis house builders were heavilly debted, built on spec & in abundance, thinks have changed a lot since then, these are easily worth £2 of anyone's money

[sikhthetech] 23/4/2024 16:24

1carus,

They are committed to returning c7.5% of NAV, which is very risky as cash will reduce quicker when the housing market is subdued and uncertainty persists. They are already reducing the number of builds.

Plus they still face a CMA investigation and could have to make more provisions if findings go against them, which I think is likely.


Once the market picks up they will need cash to increase builds, work force etc. If they have paid all their money to shareholders via a fixed dividend policy then where will they find the money?

Other builders, companies adjust their dividend policy depending on market conditions. That is the sensible way to pay dividends.

[1carus] 23/4/2024 16:07

I think the decision to be in here really boils down to whether you think the 7.5% divi is sustainable, for the given share price, or not. I have held a fair few of these since 2015, and had a buy in at around 70p. I traded in an out with some of my holding during covid but basically hold the same amount as when I started way back. With around the 7% and the specials that they handed out in good times, which I think made the total up to 15% one year, my overall return has been well above average compared to other shares. ( One offs like RR excluded) I guess my point is that a 7% return on todays values is kinda of a bread and butter no brainer even if the trading range is 99p to 170p over the cycle. If you don't think the 7% will hold, invest somewhere else where you think you may get a better return. But even given the covid years the average return is still up there anyway. The percentage may get cut a little during lean times but they are short lived it seems. Not particularly exciting, but a good return over time.

[jugears] 23/4/2024 14:44

Sickly, there is never certainty in the outlook for any company in good or bad times & how can it be a bad TU when everything is as predicted & expected? are you still bitter about TLY (I would be!) house prices do not need to match everyone's pocket because there are not enough houses for everyone to buy, unless production increases soon I can see house price increasing by another 20% at least in the next few years, considering we have been through Brexit, Covid, War,Inflation,High Interest rates the housing market is holding up extremely well far better than even I would have expected, I would be very surprised not to see this over £2 next year, & IMEO very over due!

[sunshine today] 23/4/2024 14:17

If buyers return how on earth is TW going to be in a position to increase production.

The labour cost will skyrocket

The material lead in times will rocket.

Suppliers who have been squeezed to death will slap on 15% overnight.

Just one weak link , with one sub contractor on a site screws up production.

New hires need training.

No foreign workers this time round.

20% of the over 50”s have left the industry.

[sikhthetech] 23/4/2024 14:05

Bad TU, as expected.... uncertain outlook continues

[jugears] 23/4/2024 13:21

Skreature, All shares have fallen back from earlier this morning, right across the board & certainly nothing wrong with today's TU. I don't really care who invest/ sells or shorts TW, Even if profits & sales slump for a while there is no denying that the uk housing crisis is getting bigger by the day, we haven't seen this huge slump in houses sales that was predicted by some on here, we haven't seen house prices fall 30 percent PEAK TO TROUGH!!!!, we haven't seen any increase in houses coming to the market & the number of repossessions is lower than before covid, it seems to me that far more people than the markets & experts thought actually can afford higher mortgage rates, the big issue now is that if they do cut rates & cut them to fast buyers will return in their droves & as the hb's wont be able to keep up with demand house price will climb even higher than we have seen either way it will be a win win situation for the house builders IMEO!

[kreature] 23/4/2024 13:14

Looks like this is heading into the red where it belongs after that TU

[sunshine today] 23/4/2024 13:07

Source BOE

Right from the start of the 1970s all the way to the year 2000 the Bank of England interest rate didn't drop below 5%. In fact, it only dropped below 5% in 2001 and the last time before that was in early 1964. Overall the average UK interest rate over the last 50 years from 1973 to 2023 is around 9.1%.


9.1%

Then add on 2 points for the mortgage margin.

[sunshine today] 23/4/2024 12:43

JUGEARS

Mortgages are going up because those willing to lend demand a higher premium.

[danvandan] 23/4/2024 11:49

Regarding the negative results today, reported in a bright and cheery update (again) there can be no getting away from the fact that TW's sales are continuing on a downward trajectory and profits are continuing on an even steeper downward trajectory. In 2022 sales were slightly over 14,000. Last year was 10,800. This year could be as low as 9,500 by TW's own forecast. My guess is that they will easily get down to this figure. Profits meanwhile are lower due lower sale prices AND inflation costs.

What is remarkable is the shareprice. The 2022 share price was below today's level for most of that boom year. The shareprice is currently walking on water and I think we could see sub £1 as the economy continues to struggle. There are a number of obvious headwinds - unemployment is edging up, house prices are edging down, there's a govt sponsored investigation into housebuilders which will probably not end well for the firms, and a labour govt will likely be elected in the autumn. Labour govts typically increase taxes and tank the economy.

I've slightly increased my short today.

[sunshine today] 23/4/2024 11:47

Jugs IS a great success just look at the 7 year chart.

His business had just one bad year in 40 that beat every listed company on the LSE !!!

Despite his foul language, he never fell out with any member of staff during that time.

Houses in his village sell within hours, and the price is always higher than advertised.

[danvandan] 23/4/2024 11:40

jugears, I seriously doubt that anyone with the bluff practical commonsense approach that you claim to have would spend so much time on advfn trying to convince people who don't know you and don't care about you, that you are a great success and immune to the travails of the TW shareprice. A little less about me, me, me, and a little more focus on TW itself would be more appropriate for a mature, right thinking person.

[jugears] 23/4/2024 11:15

I sold my business for a large amount of money which is untouched,I own land & property all mortgage free, I don't need to invest I do it for fun because I enjoy it.I never needed to make targets my turnover & profits increased every year for 40 years except one without much effort, my business grew by giving my customers exactly what they wanted & the business grew by word of mouth, I didn't advertise & I didn't have a web site.

[baracuda2] 23/4/2024 10:29

Yes, very sad individuals

[kreature] 23/4/2024 10:24

“ I never in all the years I was in business set targets each year”

Maybe that’s why you’re on here with the scavengers trying to make an extra quid ? It’s good fun working to targets

[trying2trade] 23/4/2024 10:24

Cash, or cashflow, is king here. They have to keep the money rolling. They can't sit on housing stock or the next project is delayed etc etc etc.

[tialouise] 23/4/2024 10:23

Filtered , repetitive rubbish from the chuckle brothers. How's the short by the way...