Phoenix Copper Share Discussion Threads

[kooba] 07/5/2024 16:39

Only thing with the "positive" of a reserves report ..it probably indicates they are not that close to producing the full PFS report and this has been put out in an attempt to pacify investors and put something out . But why put this out in isolation if PFS is close? Unfortunately no indication given in this rns. One of the company's many brokers seems more upbeat."Phoenix Copper's reserve statement for the Empire open pit in Idaho is an important step forward, according to WH Ireland.With an advanced project in mining-friendly Idaho, Phoenix is now well positioned to benefit from surging demand and strong copper prices, said the broker.A pre-feasibility study is ongoing and WHI expects the numbers to be reported shortly."As an indication of the direction of travel, we remind readers that Phoenix recently announced the advanced purchase of second-hand ball mills."This purchase introduces significant time and cost savings compared to buying new and will enhance the economics of the pre-feasibility study once reported."Shares were 16.5p, down 3% today."https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046974/phoenix-copper-in-right-place-as-metals-prices-climb-says-broker-1046974.html

[rainyrain] 07/5/2024 14:55

"If the flotation followed by leaching process proves to be commercially viable" well what is the answer? Is it commercially viable or not? This is a business not a science project in a university !

[juju44] 07/5/2024 14:25

Afgter a few years of broken promises , no delivery and general waffle and BS , the market has had enough and only a solid tangible delivery is going to move this . No one trusts these cowboys anymore

[sipptrader88] 07/5/2024 14:19

The market's harsh.....

One of my other invested companies released their PFS today......

.....Highlights

· Pre-Tax Net Present Value at 8% discount rate (NPV8) of US$837M with Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 33.8%.

· After-tax NPV8 of US$545M with IRR of 25.3%.

· Total gross revenue of US$6.5Bn over the 22-year period, with total gross profit totalling US$2.7Bn.

and the market cap is under £4m.........harsh is maybe too mild a word!

[kooba] 07/5/2024 14:10

I think the last update Sept 23 , was still undergoing further testing to see if the latest idea was commercially viable..so like much Phoenix , a bit of a grey area just now .It seems everything will be clarified by the AGM though of how they get this into production...."Initially, the metallurgical work was intended to further develop a commercial leaching design using only ammonium thiosulfate ("ATS") as the primary reagent for recovering copper, gold and silver. Following the initial test work, our metallurgists determined that adding a flotation step upstream of the leaching circuit and generating a saleable concentrate stream containing all of the metals could provide an immediate revenue stream with less concern over reagent pricing and product supply, as well as reducing the total volume of ore entering the downstream leaching circuit. If the flotation-followed-by-leaching process proves to be commercially viable, it has the potential of reducing overall capital and operating costs as well as the potential of sizing down the operational footprint and allowing a greater portion of the operation to reside on the Company's patented mining claims."

[sipptrader88] 07/5/2024 14:08

Thanks investorman33,

I didn't know this "(as reserves are stated at net of mining losses and processing losses), so reserves are pretty much the revenue over the mine life."

So that does help me.

Indeed I am underplaying and working on minimums. Really depends on the size of our processing choice in the short term. Too many unknowns for now. But I see us starting fairly small and growing each year.

So long as we have excess net net profit to explore further and that will be the exciting bit in about three years or four!

Hopefully the profit will grow quickly to afford dividends before 2030.

Would rather we under promise rather than under deliver...been too much the other way lately!

GLA

p.s. would be pleased to see share price 23p in short order...perhaps when the initial bond financing lands?

[rainyrain] 07/5/2024 11:38

Ask the expert mate we've got a mining guy hanging around! I believe they're doing that ammonium thiosulphate thingy in a tank leach type setup, but I could be wrong. I would like to know what mines it has been used on previously that have been a commercial success? All imho!

[jasperthemonkeygod] 07/5/2024 11:16

they're not heap leaching?

[rainyrain] 07/5/2024 11:09

The Capex from that 2019 economic model was 50,578,000 bucks. That was for heap leach SX-EW. I've no doubt a good quality full feasibility study would see Capex much higher than that, given inflation on just about everything since pre covid, but maybe not as much as 250 million LoL plus I'm guessing opex will be higher if not heap leach SX-EW.

All imho!

[investorman33] 07/5/2024 10:46

Bumpa33

The reserve has to be calculated to be compliant with NI 43 101 standards otherwise the Nominated Advisor (through whom the RNS's go to be published by stock Exchange) would not allow the RNS to be published.

And the Competent person would not have signed off the Reserve Statement either, Not to mention that a RESERVE statement has to be calculated net of mining and processing losses given by a NI 43 101 PFS which may have needed a dozen experts (mining engineers, metallurgists, environmental experts etc) to sign off on it.

If you invest in mining stocks you really should be aware of what checks and balances there are - very different to mining companies whose resources might be stated under Russian mining code (still used in former USSR countries) whose standards .... are Russian and not as goood as Western standards. And whilst NI 43 101 is similar to JORC, NI 43 101 in general is far more exacting than JORC.

Just thought you might appreciate some correct information on how mining companies reporting works..

[rainyrain] 07/5/2024 10:45

Thanks for the info investorman. 50 to 80 million for a processing plant in the US, plus paying the contractors to build the bleeding thing, plus associated infrastructure (warehouses, offices, worker's accommodation?) Seems a bit cheap to me.

Although granted it will be a small operation. What about all the ponds and shi*t, not Donald Pond LoL, do they need water management ponds or tailings, i know a heap leach operation needs loads of massive ponds all over the place LoL

The major thing is we don't know what kind of plant they are building ie SX-EW or leach tanks or concentrators and all that malarkey.

I'm definitely not a mining analyst or a mining professional in any way.

[investorman33] 07/5/2024 10:31

Rainyrain,

The minesite is about 5 kms away from the town of Mackay, so most of roads are already in place - rumours of an access road of maybe 1 or 2 kms constructed as a dirt track probably might be needed.

Power already exists to site : if more power needed its not a major drama to get a power cable to site.

Civil works will probably be a big part of capex, but I think you are way off with that estimate - I'd guess with all equipment (some 2nd hand) it would be US$ 50m - $80m..... and even with gold taps might get to 100m.

FYI, this is a tad less than PXC's previous economic assessment from a couple of years ago - to be expected as they've spent time refining the processes so as to minimise capex and maximise metal recoveries etc.

My background is mining and finance, so I'd hope to be able to make decent guesses

[investorman33] 07/5/2024 10:22

Kao3

The Nominated Advisor would not allow PXC to publish an RNS which was not NI 43 101 compliant - and all RNS's have to go through Nomad to get onto the LSE system.

So none of your fears could happen to PXC or other AIM listed company - an RNS has to be one which the company and Nomad believe to be a 'reasonable statement' when its published ...... and 'reasonable statement' has to stand up in a court of law.

The Reserve statement published today is a giant step up for PXC as opposed to other mining companies who only have resources - the difference is whilst resources are a statement of 'metal in the ground', reserves are stated net of estimated mining and processing losses which are from a not yet published NI 43 101 compliant PFS which has been worked on for a year or more with expert input (all signed off) by maybe a dozen organisations (environmental experts, metallurgical experts, mining engineers etc). Its a document which is said to be about 960 pages long ....... so a very substantial piece of work

[kooba] 07/5/2024 10:19

Some cost and cashflow analysis in the PEA..Obviously out of date and could be significant changes in costs and income..but some idea. Produced in 2019 and I'm not that sure things have moved on that much.https://phoenixcopperlimited.com/Company%20Presentation/20190701_Empire-Mine-Economic-Assessment.pdf

[rainyrain] 07/5/2024 10:09

Capex is important. I'm guessing civil earthworks will be the biggest item as AFAIK the deposit sits at an angle on the side of a mountain!

Where is the power coming from? Do access roads need upgrading?

As it's in the states I'm guessing initial capex will be around 250 million bucks? All imho!

[investorman33] 07/5/2024 10:09

Sipptrader,

If you take current metal prices - say copper at $4.60/lb, gold at 2320 and silver at 27/ounce and multiply the quantities, total revenue is a little under $900m (as reserves are stated at net of mining losses and processing losses), so reserves are pretty much the revenue over the mine life.

Mine life I'd guess at 7 to 10 years, so annual revenues far higher than your guesses, and whilst we don't yet know profitability and capex might be 50m/60m/80m .... the NPV of the project will be a significant multiple times the current market cap.

Hope that helps

[kooba] 07/5/2024 09:45

Yes DP that was easy to understand from the piece i posted...however someone had posted some revenue and profit figures that i guessed had not factored in the minimum cost of debt finance..that would have wiped their profit figure out.

[kooba] 07/5/2024 09:43

DP you said there would be an economic analysis released within a week or so (25/04) so you have led me to expect such an analysis...i was rather hoping for something far more significant in terms of a body of work (PFS) as promised by the the company itself , but since you have correctly posted we are getting bits of it ..not unreasonable to ask after the economic analysis since you put it out there in the first place.I am aware of AGM shareholder rights sure..but am unsure with your results are delayed comment when that might be...again there seems to be expectation that it will be in May..and even with the AGM short notice this company uses that still leaves only a week or so to get those results out doesn't it?Very disappointing from comms point of view that the company has not better advised shareholders directly on when to expect these key dates since they put out an isolated piece of news that does not tie in with what they have publicly promised.All rather untidy to say the least.

[donald pond] 07/5/2024 09:36

If you want a rule of thumb, the company will get 80-90% of the benefit of any increase in the price of copper and the bond holder 10-20%. In other words, the bigger the coupon on the bond the better for the company

[kooba] 07/5/2024 09:33

In trying to calculate the free cashflow from the very limited information available on potential capex and opex costings and deliverable production volumes..one would need to know what the cost of the development funding from the mythical copper bonds would be ..from beginning of last year on seeking $80m debt raise. "The AIM-traded firm said the copper bonds, recognising current market conditions, would have a coupon payable on the higher of a copper price coupon, or an interest rate coupon.It said the copper price coupon would be a minimum of 8.5% per annum at a $3.60 per pound or lower average monthly closing copper price during the relevant coupon period.The interest rate coupon, meanwhile, would be the average monthly closing Federal discount rate plus 5%, with a minimum of 8.5% and a maximum of 20% per annum.If the copper price increased by 10 US cents per pound or more, the coupon would increase by 0.15% per annum.However, the issue was not underwritten, and the final terms agreed with investors could differ, the board cautioned."I am noting the cautioning on the final terms not being agreed!!Either way paying interest on $80m debt on those terms would be $6.8m minimum. So that would have to be paid out of operating profit before anything to shareholders.

[soulsauce] 07/5/2024 09:27

donald pond 7 May '24 - 09:21 - 10929 of 10929

Kooba, I understand the frustration but today was significant news.

Unfortunately the share price action suggests otherwise :-/

[donald pond] 07/5/2024 09:21

Kooba,I understand the frustration but today was significant news. Let's see where everything stands by the time of the AGM when you can ask questions to your hearts content

[kooba] 07/5/2024 09:13

DPReferencing your post Paul (DP) posted on Telegram on 25.4.24:"We are aiming to get a PFS out asap. In the event that we cannot finalise the whole thing we will certainly publish a resource statement and an economic analysis (which are the key parts of the PFS) in the next week or so. We are aiming for an AGM on 22 May but that is not yet confirmed. We expect to be in a position to talk freely about both the resource and our plans to fund, develop and profit from it, at the AGM."You said a resource statement rather than a PFS as the company had promised..and bingo..but you also said there would be an economic analysis too...where is that? Do you not think since the company has missed the timeline set and is now drip feeding parts of what would form part of a PFS that the company should clarify when they will deliver this key document. It is a necessary piece of work that i see as an absolute minimum level of DD that any funding will require to be able to make an investment decision on the project ...so delays in providing that create delays in the much anticipated development funding.PFS delayed it seems Results delayed it seemsAll information posted on social media by you rather than shareholders being correctly informed by the company.

[sipptrader88] 07/5/2024 08:54

FWIW My posts on LSE today.....


"It's hard to know exactly the size of the operation that would result from reserves worth in total £ half a billion (or so)......and what operating profit or net profit would result etc. .....

but very very roughly I see minimum circa revenue of £20m per year and perhaps a net net profit of minimum £5m per year to be used for further exploration.

I would have thought the market may value us nearer the £35m at present which is a bit disappointing for me as I saw higher in my mind...but hey ho....it would still be a leg up from here.....perhaps 23p SP?????

Purely my thoughts based on peer valuations I quickly did on some juniors and seniors on a relative % basis this morning...probably well off....too many unknowns at this stage.

All IMO only."

"P.S. I would have thought the BOD would need a market cap in excess of £50m....rather than my £35m.....so we'll see what analysists say!!!!"

GLA

[3weeksorso] 07/5/2024 08:39

Absolutely chill y'all, funding is 3 weeks or so away, the PFS will be with us end of Q1 and there won't be any dilution, certainly not at multi year lows, all is good in the pxc hood.