Robbie Burns
Robbie Burns's columns :
04/09/2007An August Of Panic
24/07/2007Trailing Stop-Losses
21/06/2007Should you follow Directors?
10/05/2007A Big Plus for ADVFN Level 2 - or is that Level 3
16/04/2007Murky May on the Way? >>
02/04/2007Time for an Easter Clean?
19/03/2007Rollercoaster Ride
30/01/2007Make Money from Sparkling New Shares
09/01/2007Don't have a Lazy New Year
21/12/20062006 - A GREAT YEAR FOR SHARES
01/12/2006Stocking up for Christmas

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Robbie Burns – The Naked Trader

Robbie has been trading full-time since 2001. His book "The Naked Trader" (which also has useful information on how to use advfn) has become one of the biggest-selling finance books, reaching the top 150 books on Amazon - order it here. Trades made for Robbie's website have amassed profits of more than £300,000. You can read about his buys and sells daily at www.nakedtrader.co.uk.


Murky May on the Way?

16/04/2007

Most investors/traders have bad memories of last May. Shares took a real dive and the market sank rapidly. There's one word that describes it well but sadly I can't use it on ADVFN.

Not surprisingly, many market participants are worried that it'll happen again, especially with indexes close to highs. I'm not a market forecaster and have no idea but just because it happened last year doesn't mean to say it will happen again this year.

However, the probability of a positive return is 43% and on average the market falls 0.6% in May. And May is now the second weakest month of the year, just nosing ahead of September, which is the worst month.

Interestingly enough, the FTSE 250 stocks do tend to fare better than FTSE 100 stocks in the month.

So basically there is some merit to the sell in May market cliché.

Another point is that with two bank holidays in the month and many people away, there is less volume and therefore, downward lunges can be more pronounced than they should be.

There is another argument of course. If the market does fall in May then June could be a great time to pick up bargains, which is exactly what I did last year. It makes sound sense because July and August tend to be pretty good months on the whole.

It'll be interesting to see whether we do get a repeat of last year. Of course sod's law dictates that we won't get a slide this time, simply because so many people believe it is going to happen!

My portfolio's had a great year so far with big gains in particular from Hunting, Carclo and Alterian. I just hope May doesn't come along and spoil the party!


You can read Robbie’s daily market comments together with his latest buys and sells at his website www.nakedtrader.co.uk

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