Treasury Rally, Low Rates Key to Stock Gains: Bill Gross -- Update
15 October 2019 - 10:44PM
Dow Jones News
By Daniel Kruger
About 15% of the stock market's gains this year are attributable
to the rally in U.S. Treasurys, a sign that investors should
abandon expectations for double-digit returns for stocks in the
future, according to the man once known as Wall Street's "bond
king."
The bond rally has pushed as much as $17 trillion in global bond
yields below zero, boosting stock prices as lower bond yields have
fueled economic growth and made stocks more attractive while
narrowing the amount of extra yield that investors receive for
owning riskier debt, Bill Gross, co-founder of Pacific Investment
Management Co., said in an investment note published on his website
Tuesday.
"In the absence of substantial fiscal stimulation, the economic
and asset boost from negative interest-rate yields may have reached
an end," Mr. Gross said, in his first market commentary since
retiring in February from Janus Henderson Group PLC.
The S&P 500 has climbed about 20% this year. The movement is
supported by continued economic growth and investor expectations
that supportive central-bank policy will sustain the current
expansion, analysts said.
The decline in Treasury bond yields, which fall when bond prices
rise, is important because the yields are a key reference rate that
lenders use to set interest rates on other debt, such as consumer
mortgages and corporate bonds. Lower bond yields and central-bank
interest rates typically stimulate economic growth and support
stock prices.
Mr. Gross, however, expects slowing growth. He said further
efforts by central banks to ease monetary policy probably won't
push stocks higher because of the harmful effects of negative
interest-rate policies.
Those policies "literally rob small savers and larger financial
institutions such as banks, insurance companies and pension funds
of their ability to earn" interest on the bonds they purchase in
order to match assets and liabilities, Mr. Gross said.
Mr. Gross recommended that investors own "high yielding,
secure-dividend stocks."
U.S. government-bond prices declined Tuesday after reports that
negotiators for the U.K. and European Union were making progress
toward a preliminary Brexit agreement. The yield on the benchmark
10-year Treasury note rose for a fourth consecutive session, its
longest such streak in a month, settling at 1.773%, compared with
1.748% Friday. The yield ended last year at 2.684%.
Federal-funds futures, which investors use to bet on the path of
the central bank's interest-rate policy, show a 75% chance that the
Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting at the end
of this month, compared with an 83% probability a week ago,
according to CME Group data.
Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 15, 2019 17:29 ET (21:29 GMT)
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