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North American auto production this year is expected to fall by a third from 2008 to 8.4 million, according to a new industry forecast published Wednesday.

IHS Global Insight cut another 150,000 vehicles from its late April estimate amid plans by General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler LLC to halt production for much of the summer.

Increased domestic production by some other auto makers will partially offset cuts at GM and Chrysler. Some of the gap will also be filled by vehicles imported by Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Honda Motor Co. (HMC) and other non-U.S. based manufacturers.

Global Insight predicts Ford Motor Co. (F), the only Detroit auto maker not receiving federal loans, has the most to gain from cuts by rivals.

Ford is upping North American production by 220,000 from its initial forecast for the year, while Honda and Toyota are increasing output by 80,000 and 43,000, respectively.

"We think that most of any lost sales will be picked up almost immediately by the rest of the industry, with Ford the biggest winner from the fallout," Global Insight said in a statement.

Second-quarter industry production is forecast to fall 48% from a year ago, to 1.8 million cars and trucks. Third-quarter production will fall 22%, to 2.3 million, Global Insight predicts.

The declines are expected to last through 2011, Global Insight's latest forecast predicts production in 2010 will fall 263,000 vehicles - more than projected a month ago - to 10.4 million, while 2011 production will be down an additional 319,000 to 12.3 million.

The revised 2009 forecast factors in Chrysler's recent move to idle all its U.S. factories for at least 60 days, as well as GM's recently-announced plans to accelerate and expand reductions in its brands. GM last month added Pontiac to the list of brands targeted for sale or closure, alongside Hummer, Saab and Saturn.

-By Sharon Terlep; 248-204-5532; sharon.terlep@dowjones.com.