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Agco Corp. (AG) warned that industrywide farm-equipment sales in South America could fall by almost a third this year due to drought and tough credit conditions.

The U.S. company is a market leader in the region, and weaker sales there and in western Europe prompted Agco to trim its 2009 profit and revenue outlook as it reported a 26% rise in fourth-quarter earnings Monday.

Agco forecast tractor and combine sales to South America will fall by 20% to 30% this year, worse than the forecast of a 10% to 20% decline made last November by rival Deere & Co. (DE).

The region has been a key growth driver for the farm-equipment sector, which had been riding high on record commodity prices. Tractor sales in Brazil and Argentina climbed 30% last year, with combines up 50%.

Agco expects sales across the industry to fall in every major region this year, with North America down 5% compared with 2008 and Europe off 5% to 10%, led by declines in central Europe and Russia.

Adverse currency movements are also expected to hurt Agco, wiping $800 million to $900 million from 2009 revenue. The company trimmed its revenue estimate to $7.5 billion to $7.8 billion from a prior estimated midpoint of $7.75 billion.

It cut the top end of earnings estimate to $3 to $3.25 a share from $3 to $3.50 a share.

Agco still expects to push through an average 4% price rise this year despite the weaker demand and lower raw-material costs, which had been soaring.

Net profit for the fourth quarter beat analysts' expectations, rising to $102 million, or $1.08 a share, from $81.1 million, or 82 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts on average expected earnings of $1.01 a share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Shares of Agco traded recently at $25.09, up 5 cents.

-By Doug Cameron, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4135; doug.cameron@dowjones.com