By Myra P. Saefong

While investors in crude futures and energy stocks cheered a report Thursday tipping higher global demand through next year, a closer reading shows the outlook may not be bright enough to justify a recent rally.

The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand by nearly 500,000 barrels a day for this year and next. The news helped lift benchmark crude-oil futures to $72 per barrel in New York, the strongest intraday level since Aug. 28, with trade on Globex during Asian hours sending the price to $72.35.

Oil shares in Asia also traded higher on the gains, with Inpex Corp. up 1.4% and in Tokyo, while in Sydney, Santos Ltd. added 1.1% and Oil Search rose 2.4%.

In Hong Kong, Cnooc Ltd. advanced 2.4%, while shares of PetroChina Co. were 2% higher.

Those advances outpaced broader regional movement, with the Nikkei 225 Average trading 0.9% lower in Tokyo, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index up 0.8%, Korea's Kospi up 0.4% and the S&P ASX 200 gaining 0.7% in Sydney.

But the bullish moves for crude and energy shares seemed to ignore the IEA's caveat that "the underlying strength of [emerging market] demand has been obscured by massive stock building in China."

Some analysts said investors would wise to pay attention to this concern over the difficulty in distinguishing between the China's stockpiling of oil, which will eventually end, and its actual demand growth.

"China is strategically stockpiling oil, and this is the biggest driver for IEA expectations," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Kerr Commodities Watch. "Chinese demand and stockpiling of energy supplies remains a key concern for their ability to sustain at least 8% growth."

The IEA itself admitted that the strength of Chinese oil demand remained "elusive" and oil-product stockpiling "distorted China's demand picture."

But despite this, the IEA chose to boost its demand forecasts for China, saying its outlook "faces upside risks," but adding that "without more detailed data, and in the face of likely continuing oil price volatility, demand projections will remain prone to substantial revisions."

Some analysts said the lack of such data created too many unknowns.

"China has been obscuring the view on oil demand across all the non-OECD countries," said Cameron Peacock, a market analyst at IG Markets in Melbourne, and some of "the frustration out of China is its lack of transparency and lack of clarity."

"China has the world's largest pool of foreign-exchange reserves and is taking advantage of the weakening U.S. dollar to essentially buy oil while it is on sale," he said.

But whatever the true picture of Chinese demand, Peacock sees it, along with an improving U.S. economy as long-term positive for oil.

Chinese economic data released Friday also seemed to reassure, despite the risks of the IEA-induced rally, with the numbers pointed to a quickening recovery.