ZPG Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 26/9/2007 10:18

Beginning to think that 4p might be a struggle for the Ords.

[praipus] 23/8/2007 15:33

Tiltonboy,

Clearer now. So could only be recued by a strong market rise between now and 08/08 seems a bit difficult to envisage in the current climate. Thanks again.

Praipus

[tiltonboy] 23/8/2007 15:00

Praipus,

ah I see.

There is a huge hurdle rate of 12% on the Z's, which given the 7% yield of the portfolio, means that the NAV of the Ords will fall(and has been falling)as we close in on redemption.

tiltonboy

[praipus] 23/8/2007 14:52

Well on first look at last NAV statement "per Growth share 5.97p". Current offer 4.25p seems quite a good return.

[tiltonboy] 23/8/2007 14:37

Praipus,

Sorry, but I'm not with you. The figures tell the exact story.

tiltonboy

[praipus] 23/8/2007 14:34

Tiltonboy,

Not quite what seems then. Many thanks.

Praipus

[tiltonboy] 23/8/2007 14:31

Praipus,

By my reckoning, the terminal NAV of the Ords will be 4.5p, and the Z's will repay in full. So no bargains there at all.

tiltonboy

[praipus] 23/8/2007 14:16

So is the market wrong? Is it factoring in some other risk or are these a bargain?

[glynnef] 22/8/2007 22:19

Has the debt become a current liability because it is repayable less than 12 months away ?

G.

[tiltonboy] 22/8/2007 22:15

Glynne,

After reading the announcements again, they are correct.

Gross assets less current liabilities £11.27m.

Gross assets LESS current liabilities.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 22/8/2007 21:55

so that's 2 incorrect announcements. Not rocket science is it ??

[tiltonboy] 22/8/2007 17:38

Glynne,

It hasn't. I spoke to Paul Smith when I saw the announcement, and he said they would put out an amendment, but they haven't.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 22/8/2007 16:39

Looks like the debt has been repaid in full (the drop in gross assets was reported last week in fact, but I missed it). They must have sold something !


THE ZERO PREFERENCE GROWTH TRUST PLC

The Company announces that the bid price Net Asset Values, including current
period revenue, at 14 August 2007 were:

per Ordinary unit 72.70p

per Growth share 5.97p

per Zero Dividend Preference share 66.73p

Gross assets less current liabilities £11.27m


Fair value of the debt is not materially different from the par value.

[tiltonboy] 15/8/2007 15:48

Glynne,

OT for ZPG holders.

I wouldn't think there will be too much of a fall in the unquoted.

FX Concepts Ords have a put and call option in place which limits the valuation. The principal amount of the loan won't change, and we still have the final payments to come.

On the plus side the $ has been strengthening against the £ recently which helps.

The latest AMN dividend arrived this morning which will help bolster my cash resources. Going forward I understand that the revenue account is looking good, and there is the option of buying in more stock for cancellation.

I would see any setback as a buying opportunity.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 15/8/2007 15:25

yes, these Zs are not moving. 60% of my ISA is currently in cash, ZPGZ, ZPGU, REOZ and also ECW. all pretty stable. I might buy some more ECW for c. 7% return. There aren't many Zeros you can buy in an ISA now.
OT, AMN is falling, but quoted NAV is more or less unchanged. Perhaps a drop in the NAV of the unquoted portfolio is expected at the end of the month ?

[tiltonboy] 15/8/2007 14:51

Nice to have a slug in this given the nature of the market at the moment. RVYZ have now gone which puts another £780K in the bank. Their top holdings are all well covered, so able to withstand a further fall in equities.

I think we are looking at nearer 4p for the Growth shares as a terminal value.

tiltonboy

[glynnef] 09/8/2007 14:09

Well, I have limited exposure to ZPG, as I mostly hold ZPGZ and some ZPGU. both are a hold to maturity. As is my REOZ currently.

I guess we need interest rates to fall to see more value in ZPG ?

[tiltonboy] 09/8/2007 09:56

A year to go!!!

[glynnef] 07/6/2007 16:32

REOZ seems definitely a buy if one is holding to redemption, but ZPG only has 14 months for the REOZ share price to better reflect the value in REOZ. REOZ has been dead money for around a year, despite the NAV ticking up.

Glynne.

[tiltonboy] 07/6/2007 15:09

ZPG have doubled their stake in REOZ between March and April, and I wonder if they have added again, following the increase in the bank debt, announced earlier in the week.

ZPG NAV is struggling to make any headway at the moment, and is quickly running out of time. Only 14 months to go.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 11/5/2007 21:30

poacher,

Assets have risen marginally, but not enough to help the Growth shares. Assets need to grow in excess of 12% per annum for any increase in the Growth shares NAV. With a yield of only around 7% on it's portfolio, there is only one way that the Growth NAV is going, and that is further down.

As you point out, two of their holdings, which equated to 20% of the portfolio, reached their wind-up date at the start of the month. Whilst this would have a marginal positive effect on the gross asset position, the continued rise in bond yields was dragging down performance.

I'm not being pessimistic at all; I'm being realistic.

Good luck to the Canaries next season.

tiltonboy

[poacher45] 11/5/2007 18:06

I have to say you have been a lot more consistant than us and you deserve promotion. Good luck you spent a lot of money this season but the 30million you will get back from the premiership will more than cover it. You were brave and it came off. We had a poor manager but with our new manager there is renewed hope for next year.
It is a good job you are not Birmingham's manager you are too pessamistic. I cannot understand the large drop that has occured with zpg's asset value. Especially as two of the zeros matured at the begining of this month. The only thing I can think of is that they are allowing more funds for the terminal payments.

[tiltonboy] 11/5/2007 15:12

poacher,

What happened to the gracious congratulations for the boys from St Andrews?

There has been little movement in the gross asset position of ZPG for a couple of months now, which is having a serious impact on the NAV of the Growth Shares. I think it is now prudent to downgrade my terminal NAV fractionally to 4.75p.

tiltonboy

[tiltonboy] 02/5/2007 11:10

Glynne,

I'm still going for 5p for the Growth shares, but I am starting to think that it may be a touch optimistic. The rise in bond yields isn't helping, and should we get another two rises in interest rates, I think yields will increase.

REOZ must surely move at some stage, but it is such a small holding in the scheme of things that it might not make too much difference.

tiltonboy