Young & Co's Brewery Plc... Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 25/10/2022 12:30

Youngs interims 10th November.

[essentialinvestor] 25/10/2022 11:54

Added a few - YNGN, also hold YNGA.

[essentialinvestor] 13/10/2022 14:47

Well no need for the IF in capital letters in my above post!.

[essentialinvestor] 06/9/2022 17:19

Darrin, appreciate the posts and views. As mentioned elsewhere my take fwiw is YNGN ends up
around the £5.50 area, IF markets continue to sell off.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 16:45

CPC and MAB likely first to report as they both reported on 23/09/2021

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 15:57

I think the bounce today in most pub stocks shows a lot of investors think the sector is oversold and they are looking to pile in. I think we are near a year low for the sector but markets as a whole feel like they are going lower.
I think JDW are first to report on 7th October which is still a long way away in the current market.

[essentialinvestor] 06/9/2022 15:36

Darrin, CPC may have more upside?, I stick to YNGN, however that has a very nasty
spread and the share price can do nothing for an age and then moves in fits an starts -
in either direction.

The question to ask may be..are we near a definite low for some of these beaten
up UK focused stocks or is this a fleeting oversold bounce..


You called MCB very well, so I would say go with your gut.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 15:32

EI
What are your thoughts on Youngs vs CPC if you were buying today?

[essentialinvestor] 06/9/2022 15:08

Hi Darrin and apologies for the late reply, out for most of the morning and
still catching up on the day's events.

I mentioned to Simon yesterday on the SHA board that MAB might be the play
for a Truss bounce, but this could be fleeting?..as we are still going in to recession.

Just be aware with MAB that there are two large holders, who previously made
a nil premium offer for the entire group - and may yet end up owning the company.

One of those from memory is Joe Lewis, the famous currency trader, who at
one time was in the top 5 of Britain's rich list.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 14:09

Youngs vs CPC
Youngs may be a better pub company than CPC but CPC has been hit a lot harder than Youngs in the recent pub sector downturn and therefore shows more potential for recovery.
YNGA pre covid 1600p diluted to 1400p would only be 23% premium on todays price
YNGN pre covid 1150 diluted to 1000p would be a premium of 50% premium on todays price

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 13:55

CPC is my favoured recovery in this sector. They have gone down with the rest but look to be a good recovery. CPC up 10% today but still below August low.
CPC 180p fair value pre covid, so after share dilution in 03/2020, that fair value, all things being equal would be around 120p. I would argue CPC are worth more post covid as they have opened 10% more pubs which are much larger than the rest of their estate. My CPC target price is 140p which is 135% above the current 60p.
Directors bought in the springtime between 98p and 118p
Debt as last reported as £2m with a NAV of £1.45 after the pub estate as recently revalued.
CPC intend to reinstate dividends at next interim results.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 13:28

I think Youngs will have had a great summer. The estate with plenty of outside space, much of which has been expanded, should have traded very well. Evenings outside when very hot and dry and warm since last update.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 12:43

EI. I am currently favouring going 55% CPC, 35% JDW and 10% MARS

CPC are not in my location yet but I have looked at every pub in their estate online.
Youngs are also not in my area so I looked at a selection of locations online.
JDW, MAB and MARS are national, so I know their type.

Youngs have a great estate and should trade well against higher energy costs as premium customers are unlikely to feel the energy crunch. In the years ahead IMO interest rate will rise and fixed mortgages will rise hurting Youngs more. This is currently protecting Youngs share price in comparison to the other pubs.
Youngs invested heavily in outdoor space during covid and this I believe is why they have bounced back better than the other pubs.

Allocating an investment soon is not about which is the best pub company but for me who is the most under valued.

[darrin1471] 06/9/2022 12:20

EI I spent a bit of the weekend looking more into Youngs CPC JDW MARS and MAB.
Have not bought yet and hoping today is just a bounce. US markets look like they have another leg down in them before the next round of UK pub results.

[1tx] 05/7/2022 10:20

Good trading update today;although we,esp holders of non voters,remain in my opinion in the bargain bin!

[buywell3] 22/6/2022 00:09

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[1tx] 06/6/2022 12:46

Yes mystery why IC never mention YNGN;this class still decent value at present price well below £12 NAV.I think deciding to concentrate on managed houses is the right way forward makes the business a bit simpler & I think it is difficult to make a decent return on capital with tenanted pubs when operating in an area where capital value of pubs is high.Interested to see Fullers results to end March this week whose shares are also depressed .I have been buying these also recently it remains to be seen if I am correct that they are good value.They retain a large number of tenanted pubs.

[wad collector] 29/5/2022 09:58

Tipped in IC this week following good results despite the pandemic. Well strictly speaking it was YNGA that it was tipping.

[essentialinvestor] 30/3/2022 10:30

On a 12 month basis it's the largest % performance differential I can remember.

[psychochopper] 30/3/2022 09:59

They are virtually identical shares; one has voting rights and the other does not.

I have not followed this in minute detail, but the spread between the two, absent of my missing some legal/structural detail, is a gift. And as others have said, is extremely wide, historically.

In fact, the spread appears to be 7x its mean of the past 5 years. (be careful of data mining!!)

[essentialinvestor] 30/3/2022 09:04

May be a low in yesterday on YNGN, significant 1 yr underperformance re YNGA,
expect some of that gap to close.

[essentialinvestor] 08/3/2022 15:05

Spec, given the locations a premium offering should hold it's own, particularly given less competition.

I think it's either premium end or value end to be in, the squeezed middle not so much.

Agree on headwinds clearly , however you pay near 20 x for YNGA on the FY - 11 x for yngn appears a chasm of a valuation gap.

[spectoacc] 08/3/2022 14:53

I like that you look at these weird ones @EI :) I tend to forget all about them.

I'd be very concerned at pub prospects tho - utility bills for the pubs themselves, and also what the bills are going to do to consumer spending. This could last at least a year.

Downsize to JDW?