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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yougov Plc | YOU | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -9.00 | -2.02% | 436.00 | 16:35:08 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 458.00 | 435.00 | 458.00 | 436.00 | 445.00 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MEDIA |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 01/11/2024 18:49 by xtrmntr Shareholders in YouGov (YOU) were probably expecting a fairly glum analysis of the group's full-year figures following the summer profit warning, but the shares were marked up sharply on results day.In January, YouGov completed the 315mn (£263mn) deal to acquire the consumer panels services (CPS) business of Nuremberg based GfK, a move deemed "transformative" by management. Given the subsequent 60 per cent increase in administrative expenses, shareholders would be entitled to ask what long-term impact the group's metamorphosis will have on its cost base.Unfortunately, given where we are in the integration process that's probably unknowable at this stage, not least because the full extent of rationalisation measures has yet to be brought to bear. Management has taken initial action to reduce annualised costs by around £20mn, but the bottom line is that the increase in leverage brought about by recent M&A activity is atypical where YouGov is concerned, so management will look to retire debt as soon as practicable. We'll get a more meaningful idea of how the business is faring post-acquisition when the group's interim figures are released in March, but full-year revenue was ahead of guidance, while adjusted operating profit edged up 1 per cent to £49.6mn, partly thanks to the contribution from CPS. Unfortunately, the underlying margin contracted by 400 basis points due to faltering sales growth and increased staff and technology costs.The group has not been immune to the general slump in demand for B2B services of all stripes, a situation which will hopefully reverse if the cost-of-capital continues on its downward path. The good news is that the group's Americas segment saw underlying sales growth of 8 per cent, "driven by an increase in spend from the technology sector and multi-year tracking studies".Although a step-up in M&A activity invariably gives way to intensified scrutiny on the part of investors, YouGov is faced by the dual challenge/opportunit |
Posted at 29/10/2024 09:00 by fuji99 Apparently the savvy investor started shorting from 375p because he was certain this will hit £2 ! |
Posted at 23/10/2024 19:20 by semperlucrum You know it must be true when essential investor turns up |
Posted at 23/10/2024 14:34 by growthpotential Can you get this guy, has no position but trolls the boards lol! Sceptical investor just block so his spiel doesn't show on here lol |
Posted at 23/10/2024 08:58 by fuji99 Why do you want me and others to sell ?What's your interests on here then ? To help your fresh short ? For sure. Unfortunately for you, I am not a day-trader or a weak holder. I am a long term investor. |
Posted at 30/8/2024 23:03 by growthpotential Sceptical investor is so sceptical he never invests in anything himself, LOL! |
Posted at 31/7/2024 21:38 by loggypunts Nice to see you keeping up septic investor, it was announced days ago that the update would be 6 August |
Posted at 05/7/2024 06:02 by xtrmntr Peel Hunt cuts YouGov target priceYouGov (YOU) is trading at its lowest rating for a decade but although the market thinks the business is 'broken', Peel Hunt disagrees.Analyst Jessica Pok retained her 'buy' recommendation but cut the target price from £15 to 630p on the polling and analytics group, which fell 1.2% to 422p on Thursday, adding to the hefty 65% loss the shares have made this year.The shares have fallen since its full-year profit warning led Pok to reduce full-year 2024 and 2025 earnings per share targets by 44% and 39%, respectively, with 'conservative growth assumptions built in for next year'.'The shares are currently trading at 11 times full-year 2025 price to earnings...which is near YouGov's lowest rating in over a decade,' she said.'The market is pointing to a broken business, which we do not believe is the case. However, we expect the shares to trade sideways until investors have more confidence in the future strategy, and gain further insight into management's plan of action at the prelims.' |
Posted at 20/6/2024 12:19 by mortal1ty Thanks for the info on competition. To be honest, in these sort of scenarios the market will shoot first and ask questions later. Keywords was meant to be an AI risk, and in reality it was probably a low risk, but the market puts it in a 'bucket' and its hard to shake that label.So the market (and investors) will put this in the 'losing share', competitive struggles bucket, and investors just won't be bothered to look at it. The other issue you have is YouGov has previously been characterised as a growth stock. Lots of growth investors. These growth investors do not like their growth investment case going wrong, and will slowly sell out. However, the value investors are greedy on price. They want those low and distressed valuations before they buy in. So you end up with this horrible situation where growth investors won't touch it and value investors won't touch it. Then when the price has dribbled low enough (I think c. 1.3x sales), you will see a massive spike in volume again and this is the turnaround / bottom. Keywords is a good business in my opinion. Lots of cash. Lots of organic growth. Lots of bolt on acquisitions. It has shifted a lot over the last few years to become higher quality (focused on creative design of games not just localisation). Anyway the market-cap for that is £1760. They have 82m EUR net-debt. Last year made 158m EUR adj. EBITDA, which I made for c. 12.7x EBITDA. Pre-bid the business was basically on a 10% FCF yield. This has balance sheet issues now, trading issues, management reputation issues, the wrong shareholder base, and isn't on a distressed valuation yet. I bet you can pick this up for c. 1.5x sales in the next few months just on general selling. Whether is gets down to a truly distressed level (c. 1.25x) will depend on how much fear around the balance sheet and competition grows. |
Posted at 20/6/2024 11:51 by ggrantsu Mortal1ty...you make some good comments tbf. In terms of competition, I made these notes when looking at YOU in detail. 'Smaller new entrants in many instances possess innovative technology in terms of data analytics; however, they do not possess historical panel data that in anyway mirrors YouGov’s own. Basically, YouGov’s own panel data is a difficult to replicate asset. These smaller operators are in many instances utilising third-party rented panel data, and there have been many reports of fraudulent and misleading data being used. The following competitors are examples of the kind of entrants YouGov has seen:• Cint Group AB (ticker CINT) - A panel aggregator that has had issues with fraud. • Dynata – A panel aggregator that filed for a Chapter 11 last month. • GWI – A ‘thinner version’ competitor of YouGov Profiles based in the UK. They have no panel (relying on third party data). They are selling their offering at low prices as the Group needs to demonstrate growth to its PE investors. • MorningConsult – A US competitor to BrandIndex. Like GWI, they are struggling to justify lofty valuations and need to show growth and hence have slashed prices. It is loss making and, like GWI, relies on third-party data.' So basically...they have these short/medium term pressures, but there is certainly a plausible view that at some point they should come out as a long term winner. Owning their large, historic panel, is actually a big plus...doesn't detract from the immediate reality. I think your point re bids is interesting...and makes me realise I'm probably being optimistic. By any chance, do you have the Keywords EV/EBITDA takeout multiple to hand? I think that is a good reference point for us here...IMO, YouGov is a better business than Keywords (just my opinion). |
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